Volume & money flow · daily rule · Industrials & materials
Money Flow Index on Aecon Group
ARE with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ARE over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.6% | +13.0% | +9.2% | +26.7% |
| Total return | +40% | +1,321% | +55% | +225% |
| Worst drawdown | −69.3% | −74.9% | −52.4% | −56.2% |
| Volatility | 27.2% | 35.9% | 29.1% | 39.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.13 | 0.47 | 0.32 | 0.70 |
| Time invested | 44% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.6 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 27 of 56 closed calls (48%). In calls averaged +2.4%; out calls saw ARE move +14.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ARE moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | OUT | C$57.45 | now | −9.3% | open |
| Aug 14, 2026 | IN | C$46.27 | Oct 6, 2026 | +24.2% | ✓ right |
| Jan 30, 2026 | OUT | C$34.85 | Aug 14, 2026 | +32.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 26, 2025 | IN | C$26.76 | Jan 30, 2026 | +30.3% | ✓ right |
| Oct 31, 2025 | OUT | C$30.35 | Nov 26, 2025 | −11.8% | ✓ right |
| Jul 23, 2025 | IN | C$18.97 | Oct 31, 2025 | +59.9% | ✓ right |
| May 21, 2025 | OUT | C$17.68 | Jul 23, 2025 | +7.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IN | C$23.38 | May 21, 2025 | −24.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 16, 2024 | OUT | C$16.79 | Jan 17, 2025 | +39.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 5, 2024 | IN | C$15.44 | Aug 16, 2024 | +8.7% | ✓ right |
| Sep 6, 2023 | OUT | C$9.97 | Jun 5, 2024 | +54.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 29, 2023 | IN | C$10.84 | Sep 6, 2023 | −8.0% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 57 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.