Oct 13 close Sign in

Industrials & materials

Russel Metals (RUS)

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy82 / 100

Buy: 82 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Trend (+53% vs 200-day) scores 98 and lifts it; Plays in (66%) scores 66 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weightRUSPointsWeightAdds
Plays in66%664026.4
Off the high−4% from its 1-year high883026.4
Trend+53% vs 200-day983029.4
Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for RUS
FactorRUSPointsWhat it is
Plays in66%66The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside−3% · 7 analysts25How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating2.4 · buy29The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E23.4×53Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E19.3×36Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG0.5386P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales0.9×89Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book2.9×51Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield1.9%50Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth+34%63Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth+37%79Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin4%30Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity13%52Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity0.28×68Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high−4% from its 1-year high88How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend+53% vs 200-day98How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum+132%96The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure3/10 · moderate70The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on RUS

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in66 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureModerate3 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.53×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+53%). Higher than on 100% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about RUS now.

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved RUS lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P/TSX; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Wed Sep 30+4.7% against the S&P/TSX1.9× a normal day

RUS +4.1%, the S&P/TSX −0.6% that session; +3.6% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on RUS was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for RUS starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.6%. The 52 other Industrials & materials stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.3% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Fri Sep 4+3.1% against the S&P/TSX1.2× a normal day

RUS +2.8%, the S&P/TSX −0.3% that session; +4.9% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on RUS was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for RUS starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.3%. The 52 other Industrials & materials stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.9% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on RUS

All 100 plays, by family.

Calls right: how often the play's calls on RUS went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

PlayCallSinceNext moveCalls rightAnnual returnWorst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · dailyINSep 3, 2026 +24.0%Exit below C$86.22 (−6.1%)30% 173/584+12.1% / +14.6%−45.1% / −67.4%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weeklyINDec 5, 2025 +129.7%Exit below C$73.07 (−20.5%)33% 36/110+10.6% / +14.6%−45.0% / −67.4%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · dailyINMar 23, 2026 +95.6%Exit below C$80.04 (−12.9%)26% 85/330+12.4% / +14.6%−40.2% / −67.4%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · dailyINMar 31, 2026 +94.0%Exit below C$79.71 (−13.2%)18% 30/170+7.0% / +14.6%−35.7% / −67.4%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weeklyINDec 12, 2025 +117.6%Exit below C$66.17 (−28.0%)22% 19/88+7.4% / +14.6%−36.8% / −67.4%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weeklyINJan 9, 2026 +104.7%Exit below C$66.17 (−28.0%)29% 28/96+8.5% / +14.6%−36.8% / −67.4%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-endINDec 31, 2025 +114.4%Exit below C$60.79 (−33.8%)42% 15/36+13.0% / +14.6%−42.7% / −67.4%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · dailyINNov 26, 2025 +128.6%Exit below C$59.94 (−34.8%)16% 24/152+10.8% / +14.6%−35.0% / −67.4%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · dailyINJun 13, 2025 +121.2%Not on one close58% 15/26+11.6% / +14.6%−52.9% / −67.4%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · dailyINNov 26, 2025 +128.6%Exit below C$59.94 (−34.8%)14% 16/112+8.0% / +14.6%−40.0% / −67.4%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weeklyINApr 10, 2026 +84.0%Exit below C$68.59 (−25.3%)38% 49/128+13.2% / +14.6%−34.5% / −67.4%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Exit below C$91.54 (−0.4%)26% 195/736+12.2% / +14.6%−43.8% / −67.4%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · dailyINSep 22, 2026 +12.0%Exit below C$80.42 (−12.5%)36% 93/256+9.1% / +14.6%−32.7% / −67.4%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · dailyINMay 5, 2025 +137.3%Not on one close32% 9/28+10.3% / +14.1%−48.7% / −67.4%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · dailyINMar 25, 2026 +93.5%Exit below C$52.15 (−43.2%)36% 42/118+9.8% / +14.6%−34.8% / −67.4%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · dailyINDec 10, 2025 +122.5%Exit below C$70.65 (−23.1%)41% 39/96+14.2% / +14.6%−35.7% / −67.4%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · dailyINSep 17, 2026 +15.3%Exit below C$87.15 (−5.1%)47% 68/144+12.7% / +14.6%−29.1% / −67.4%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · dailyINSep 10, 2026 +21.1%Not on one close41% 114/276+10.3% / +14.6%−41.1% / −67.4%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · dailyINSep 10, 2026 +21.1%Exit below C$73.89 (−19.6%)40% 208/526+14.0% / +14.6%−30.8% / −67.4%
AroonTushar S. Chande · dailyINSep 22, 2026 +12.0%Exit below C$74.26 (−19.2%)37% 85/230+9.2% / +14.6%−47.9% / −67.4%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.1%Enter above C$95.22 (+3.6%)42% 199/471+9.7% / +14.6%−64.9% / −67.4%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINSep 28, 2026 +6.5%Exit below C$81.22 (−11.6%)36% 61/170+7.0% / +14.6%−27.1% / −67.4%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · dailyINMar 31, 2026 +94.0%Exit below C$44.10 (−52.0%)36% 58/162+12.8% / +14.6%−33.6% / −67.4%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weeklyOUTOct 9, 2026 +1.9%Enter above C$93.78 (+2.1%)38% 77/203+7.4% / +14.6%−61.6% / −67.4%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINJul 10, 2026 +43.4%Not on one close33% 72/216+10.4% / +14.6%−38.5% / −67.4%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · dailyINSep 15, 2026 +18.5%Not on one close41% 99/242+6.4% / +14.6%−62.6% / −67.4%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · dailyINMar 25, 2026 +93.5%Exit below C$47.43 (−48.4%)37% 55/148+14.3% / +14.6%−31.7% / −67.4%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · dailyINDec 10, 2025 +122.5%Not on one close37% 33/90+12.5% / +14.6%−45.8% / −67.4%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · dailyOUTJul 29, 2026 +37.5%Not on one close36% 78/216+5.1% / +14.6%−33.3% / −67.4%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTAug 7, 2026 +14.2%Not on one close42% 17/40+2.4% / +14.6%−9.7% / −67.4%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · dailyINDec 10, 2025 +122.5%Exit below C$75.51 (−17.8%)45% 51/114+14.8% / +14.6%−34.1% / −67.4%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyINSep 17, 2026 +15.3%Exit below C$85.88 (−6.5%)32% 46/144+7.2% / +14.6%−26.4% / −67.4%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyINDec 12, 2025 +117.6%Exit below C$75.51 (−17.8%)35% 34/96+9.4% / +14.6%−41.1% / −67.4%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · dailyINSep 22, 2026 +12.0%Exit below C$87.21 (−5.1%)37% 33/90+9.9% / +14.6%−36.0% / −67.4%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · dailyINAug 7, 2026 +14.2%Exit below C$86.30 (−6.1%)39% 43/110+6.8% / +14.6%−41.1% / −67.4%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · dailyINSep 21, 2026 +14.3%Exit below C$86.49 (−5.9%)30% 50/168+4.9% / +14.6%−34.6% / −67.4%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · dailyINSep 17, 2026 +15.3%Exit below C$86.52 (−5.8%)33% 75/225+6.4% / +14.6%−30.2% / −67.4%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.1%Enter above C$95.21 (+3.6%)42% 76/183+11.3% / +14.6%−30.6% / −67.4%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINSep 15, 2026 +18.5%Exit below C$86.02 (−6.4%)47% 74/158+14.0% / +14.6%−51.2% / −67.4%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · dailyINJun 6, 2025 +121.1%Exit below C$69.25 (−24.6%)44% 34/78+12.5% / +14.6%−48.2% / −67.4%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyINOct 9, 2026 +1.9%Exit below C$88.66 (−3.5%)31% 105/340+10.7% / +14.6%−46.6% / −67.4%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.1%Not on one close29% 56/190+0.9% / +14.6%−29.4% / −67.4%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · dailyOUTApr 16, 2026 +90.3%Not on one close33% 50/150+1.0% / +14.6%−35.0% / −67.4%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · dailyINSep 15, 2026 +18.5%Exit below C$86.85 (−5.5%)33% 225/690+7.3% / +14.6%−50.7% / −67.4%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTJul 25, 2025 +115.8%Not on one close28% 13/46+2.4% / +14.6%−19.9% / −67.4%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-endINDec 31, 2025 +114.4%Exit below C$43.57 (−52.6%)54% 13/24+11.1% / +14.8%−49.6% / −67.4%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-endINDec 31, 2025 +114.4%Not on one close68% 15/22+13.2% / +14.8%−37.3% / −67.4%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-endINJan 30, 2026 +94.7%Exit below C$48.45 (−47.3%)35% 12/34+10.0% / +14.8%−51.0% / −67.4%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTAug 7, 2026 +14.2%Not on one close26% 32/125+10.9% / +14.6%−28.2% / −67.4%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-endINNov 29, 2024 +113.0%Exit below C$80.93 (−11.9%)38% 9/24+4.9% / +14.6%−59.9% / −67.4%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weeklyINDec 19, 2025 +113.8%Exit below C$71.00 (−22.7%)34% 46/134+10.0% / +14.6%−32.9% / −67.4%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 +1.9%Enter above C$92.46 (+0.6%)35% 154/436+9.5% / +14.6%−42.7% / −67.4%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · dailyINSep 3, 2026 +24.0%Exit below C$88.50 (−3.7%)34% 240/702+11.8% / +14.6%−37.1% / −67.4%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · dailyINSep 17, 2026 +15.3%Exit below C$73.17 (−20.4%)40% 122/304+12.3% / +14.6%−44.7% / −67.4%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-endINJan 31, 2023 +228.1%Not on one close56% 5/9+13.5% / +12.6%−61.2% / −67.4%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.1%Enter above C$93.79 (+2.1%)28% 173/614+3.6% / +14.6%−52.6% / −67.4%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · dailyINSep 21, 2026 +14.3%Exit below C$60.26 (−34.4%)41% 105/256+10.0% / +14.6%−34.3% / −67.4%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · dailyINMar 31, 2026 +94.0%Exit below C$42.12 (−54.2%)36% 59/162+12.8% / +14.6%−33.4% / −67.4%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-endINDec 31, 2025 +114.4%Exit below C$74.63 (−18.8%)39% 32/82+14.4% / +14.8%−36.7% / −67.4%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-endINDec 31, 2025 +114.4%Not on one close65% 13/20+9.1% / +12.4%−37.3% / −67.4%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · dailyINDec 31, 2025 +114.4%Not on one close50% 10/20+10.3% / +14.8%−34.2% / −67.4%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · dailyINSep 18, 2026 +14.8%Exit below C$86.90 (−5.4%)37% 121/330+9.6% / +14.6%−33.1% / −67.4%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTDec 30, 2025 +113.8%Not on one close66% 29/44+8.4% / +14.6%−59.3% / −67.4%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTAug 27, 2026 +25.3%Buy below C$79.23 (−13.8%)60% 193/324+4.5% / +14.6%−15.6% / −67.4%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyINOct 8, 2026 +4.4%Sell above C$91.89 (+0.0%)61% 251/409+7.9% / +14.6%−26.3% / −67.4%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTJul 6, 2026 +46.1%Buy below C$75.20 (−18.1%)59% 103/176−1.6% / +14.6%−74.6% / −67.4%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · dailyOUTSep 17, 2026 +15.3%Not on one close60% 89/1480.0% / +14.6%−78.9% / −67.4%
Williams %RLarry Williams · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 0.0%Not on one close57% 137/242+1.6% / +14.6%−80.1% / −67.4%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · dailyOUTSep 25, 2026 +7.8%Not on one close51% 37/72+1.7% / +14.6%−73.5% / −67.4%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · dailyINNov 22, 2004 +2,076.5%Sell above C$144.86 (+57.7%)–+14.6% / +14.6%−67.4% / −67.4%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · dailyOUTDec 16, 2015 +941.4%Not on one close30% 3/10+1.5% / +14.6%−11.0% / −67.4%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 +4.4%Not on one close50% 155/312+6.6% / +14.6%−73.0% / −67.4%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Not on one close58% 253/437+7.7% / +14.6%−58.5% / −67.4%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.1%Buy below C$91.87 (0.0%)54% 926/1708−3.1% / +14.6%−70.4% / −67.4%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTJul 9, 2026 +44.6%Not on one close49% 45/92+0.9% / +14.6%−50.6% / −67.4%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 0.0%Enter above C$94.55 (+2.9%)36% 372/1034+6.3% / +14.6%−61.5% / −67.4%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-endOUTJul 31, 2026 +37.4%Buy below C$92.30 (+0.5%)57% 73/128+7.4% / +14.6%−54.8% / −67.4%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · dailyINSep 3, 2026 +24.0%Not on one close30% 197/666+11.5% / +14.6%−49.8% / −67.4%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · dailyINSep 15, 2026 +18.5%Not on one close45% 86/190+12.1% / +14.6%−48.3% / −67.4%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · dailyOUTDec 17, 2025 +115.3%Not on one close60% 29/48+8.3% / +14.6%−54.2% / −67.4%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · dailyINNov 13, 2024 +126.6%Not on one close37% 37/99+15.7% / +14.9%−41.3% / −67.4%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · dailyINOct 9, 2026 +1.9%Exit below C$90.21 (−1.8%)29% 196/676+7.7% / +14.6%−56.1% / −67.4%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · dailyINSep 9, 2026 +21.3%Exit below C$70.37 (−23.4%)37% 124/336+11.2% / +14.6%−42.8% / −67.4%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · dailyINSep 2, 2026 +25.1%Not on one close38% 204/530+10.4% / +14.6%−43.8% / −67.4%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · dailyINNov 26, 2025 +128.6%Not on one close31% 20/64+10.3% / +14.9%−59.6% / −67.4%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 +1.5%Not on one close37% 322/882+10.1% / +14.6%−60.3% / −67.4%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 0.0%Not on one close48% 82/170+3.0% / +14.6%−72.4% / −67.4%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · dailyINSep 3, 2026 +24.0%Exit below C$86.85 (−5.5%)41% 36/87+14.1% / +14.6%−36.7% / −67.4%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTSep 23, 2025 +138.4%Not on one close38% 18/48+1.8% / +14.6%−11.0% / −67.4%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 +76.1%Buys Oct 3060% 26/43+10.1% / +14.6%−58.0% / −67.4%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 16, 2026 +90.3%Enter above C$95.86 (+4.3%)53% 23/43+8.2% / +14.6%−58.0% / −67.4%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · dailyOUTJun 9, 2026 +47.1%Window opens Oct 1656% 24/43+12.2% / +14.6%−58.0% / −67.4%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTJan 5, 2026 +112.1%Buys Dec 2350% 22/44+4.1% / +14.6%−4.4% / −67.4%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 0.0%Buys Oct 2949% 258/526+4.5% / +14.6%−31.3% / −67.4%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINSep 30, 2026 +1.5%Sells Jun 3036% 4/11+2.5% / +14.6%−52.3% / −67.4%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 +20.6%Buys Nov 2451% 198/386+4.9% / +14.6%−8.6% / −67.4%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-endINDec 30, 2022 +269.5%Not on one close45% 9/20+8.0% / +14.6%−39.6% / −67.4%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Sells Oct 1651% 1156/2284+8.0% / +14.6%−69.6% / −67.4%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 +17.9%Buys Oct 2749% 172/348+5.4% / +14.6%−7.2% / −67.4%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −3.5%Sells Oct 1652% 283/541+7.8% / +14.6%−63.1% / −67.4%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmarkINJan 4, 2005Always in–+14.6%−67.4%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works
ExposureModerate3 of 10 points
  • Market swings0/3
  • Past crashes2/2
  • Debt0/3
  • Run-up1/2
  • It fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes.
  • It is up 141% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high Feb 2011

RUS−66%
TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Nov 2020

RUS−49%
TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jul 2022 · back to its old high Jan 2023

RUS−26%
TSX−14%
  • Beta1.00Moves about 1.0× as much as the TSX week to week.
  • Downside capture−9%In months the TSX fell, this fell -9% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
  • Two-year change+141%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
  • From 52-week high−4%
  • Debt to equity0.30×
  • Net debt / EBITDA1.0×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
  • Interest cover9.9×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Industrial Distribution · Russel Metals Inc. engages in the distribution of steel and other metal products in Canada and the United States. The company operates through Metals Service Centers, Energy Field Stores, and Steel Distribution segments.

Size and valuation
Market capC$5.0BWhat the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)C$5.3BTotal sales. The market values it at 0.9× sales.
P/E ratio23.4×Buyers pay C$23 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E19.3×Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book2.9×Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.
Profit and growth
Profit margin4.0%Keeps 4¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth+37.1%Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth+33.6%Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity12.9%Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flowC$84.1MCash left after running and investing in the business.
Balance sheet
Total equityC$1.6BWhat it owns minus what it owes.
Total debtC$482MLoans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
CashC$154MCash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity0.30×Comfortable.
Interest cover9.9×Interest is easily paid from profit.
Wall Street
Average analyst targetC$89.433% below the close, from 7 analysts (range C$70.00 to C$113.00).
Consensus ratingBuyAnalysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield1.95%Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

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