Indexes & ETFs
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Your signal
Buy77 / 100
Buy: 77 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (at its 1-year high) scores 100 and lifts it; Plays in (67%) scores 67 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | SPY | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 67% | 67 | 40 | 26.8 |
| Off the high | at its 1-year high | 100 | 30 | 30.0 |
| Trend | +8% vs 200-day | 67 | 30 | 20.1 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for SPY
| Factor | SPY | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 67% | 67 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | at its 1-year high | 100 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | +8% vs 200-day | 67 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +19% | 55 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 0/10 · low | 100 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on SPY- 67 of the 100 plays hold SPY right now.
- The trend-following, momentum and volume plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion plays mostly say out.
- It closed 8% above its 200-day average and at a 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in67 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.08×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+8%). Higher than on 69% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about SPY now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn SPY: right 4 of 12 · Out since Jul 24, 2024Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn SPY: right 12 of 22 · In since Apr 28, 2025Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn SPY: right 10 of 18 · In since Apr 28, 2023Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn SPY: right 126 of 198 · Out since Sep 21, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn SPY: right 21 of 38 · Out since Sep 16, 2025Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn SPY: right 49 of 90 · Out since Jul 2, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn SPY: right 19 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
SPY, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on SPY
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following26 of 30 inBreakouts & channels9 of 15 inMomentum16 of 17 inMean reversion3 of 15 inVolume & money flow7 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns1 of 3 inCalendar5 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on SPY went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Exit below $770.91 (−0.9%) | 28% 173/628 | +3.4% / +11.0% | −48.9% / −55.2% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +15.1% | Exit below $751.14 (−3.5%) | 31% 27/88 | +8.0% / +11.0% | −21.7% / −55.2% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 +2.3% | Exit below $764.41 (−1.7%) | 26% 86/334 | +6.3% / +11.0% | −29.4% / −55.2% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | Jun 26, 2026 +7.0% | Enter above $817.42 (+5.1%) | 24% 21/86 | +2.6% / +11.1% | −17.4% / −55.2% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +15.1% | Exit below $738.27 (−5.1%) | 29% 18/62 | +8.9% / +11.0% | −17.6% / −55.2% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +15.1% | Exit below $738.27 (−5.1%) | 27% 23/84 | +8.2% / +11.0% | −21.4% / −55.2% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | IN | Apr 30, 2026 +8.8% | Exit below $722.21 (−7.2%) | 38% 12/32 | +8.7% / +11.0% | −24.3% / −55.2% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | IN | Apr 8, 2026 +15.7% | Exit below $720.78 (−7.4%) | 17% 23/134 | +8.3% / +11.0% | −20.9% / −55.2% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Jun 27, 2025 +28.2% | Not on one close | 50% 10/20 | +9.4% / +11.0% | −33.7% / −55.2% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Apr 8, 2026 +15.7% | Exit below $720.78 (−7.4%) | 17% 18/108 | +8.2% / +11.0% | −20.9% / −55.2% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.1% | Exit below $766.55 (−1.5%) | 39% 52/132 | +6.2% / +11.0% | −24.4% / −55.2% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Exit below $769.66 (−1.1%) | 24% 205/839 | +0.6% / +11.0% | −47.7% / −55.2% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Exit below $751.41 (−3.4%) | 34% 96/280 | +4.3% / +11.0% | −34.6% / −55.2% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | Apr 30, 2025 +42.6% | Not on one close | 39% 7/18 | +8.6% / +11.1% | −30.0% / −55.2% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | IN | Aug 3, 2026 +2.9% | Exit below $732.94 (−5.8%) | 29% 40/136 | +5.6% / +11.0% | −21.2% / −55.2% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | IN | Apr 13, 2026 +14.0% | Exit below $746.12 (−4.1%) | 35% 35/100 | +8.0% / +11.0% | −20.5% / −55.2% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $759.90 (−2.3%) | 37% 65/178 | +5.5% / +11.0% | −23.7% / −55.2% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 +0.1% | Not on one close | 38% 121/320 | +5.1% / +11.0% | −17.3% / −55.2% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Exit below $759.89 (−2.3%) | 33% 167/512 | +2.8% / +11.0% | −34.3% / −55.2% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $747.75 (−3.9%) | 42% 74/178 | +7.6% / +11.0% | −15.8% / −55.2% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $767.14 (−1.4%) | 36% 200/549 | +2.0% / +11.0% | −48.3% / −55.2% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Jun 17, 2026 +5.5% | Not on one close | 35% 48/139 | +2.6% / +11.0% | −11.4% / −55.2% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $727.35 (−6.5%) | 30% 55/182 | +6.5% / +11.0% | −26.4% / −55.2% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +15.1% | Exit below $747.43 (−3.9%) | 36% 43/118 | +6.3% / +11.0% | −39.0% / −55.2% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $533.27 (−31.5%) | 32% 73/226 | +5.0% / +11.0% | −23.3% / −55.2% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $762.18 (−2.0%) | 37% 99/268 | +4.4% / +11.0% | −43.7% / −55.2% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $729.43 (−6.2%) | 34% 46/134 | +6.0% / +11.0% | −23.6% / −55.2% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | IN | Apr 16, 2026 +11.4% | Exit below $655.14 (−15.8%) | 39% 29/74 | +8.8% / +11.0% | −25.0% / −55.2% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Jun 5, 2026 +6.0% | Not on one close | 36% 79/222 | +4.4% / +11.0% | −28.1% / −55.2% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Jul 24, 2024 +47.5% | Not on one close | 33% 4/12 | +1.7% / +11.0% | −2.5% / −55.2% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $747.75 (−3.9%) | 41% 55/134 | +6.9% / +11.0% | −26.9% / −55.2% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $759.43 (−2.4%) | 30% 54/178 | +3.8% / +11.0% | −17.5% / −55.2% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 −0.1% | Exit below $765.48 (−1.6%) | 32% 39/122 | +3.6% / +11.0% | −18.2% / −55.2% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 −0.1% | Exit below $758.23 (−2.5%) | 32% 39/122 | +4.3% / +11.0% | −15.5% / −55.2% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Jul 29, 2026 +6.9% | Not on one close | 34% 43/127 | +4.7% / +11.0% | −30.5% / −55.2% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Aug 20, 2026 +2.3% | Enter above $784.09 (+0.8%) | 29% 51/175 | +2.5% / +11.0% | −13.5% / −55.2% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 −0.1% | Exit below $770.61 (−1.0%) | 26% 54/208 | +0.7% / +11.0% | −23.9% / −55.2% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $762.57 (−2.0%) | 36% 64/178 | +5.6% / +11.0% | −26.7% / −55.2% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $762.62 (−2.0%) | 38% 69/182 | +5.9% / +11.0% | −17.8% / −55.2% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | Apr 28, 2025 +43.6% | Exit below $623.82 (−19.8%) | 55% 12/22 | +10.6% / +11.0% | −37.3% / −55.2% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $763.79 (−1.8%) | 26% 97/368 | +4.8% / +11.0% | −35.8% / −55.2% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Aug 17, 2026 +0.9% | Not on one close | 28% 72/260 | +2.0% / +11.0% | −10.1% / −55.2% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Jul 20, 2026 +5.1% | Not on one close | 30% 38/126 | +1.6% / +11.0% | −17.1% / −55.2% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 +0.1% | Enter above $779.40 (+0.2%) | 31% 247/793 | −0.3% / +11.0% | −54.3% / −55.2% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Oct 10, 2025 +20.4% | Not on one close | 16% 9/58 | +0.9% / +11.0% | −17.8% / −55.2% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | IN | Jun 30, 2023 +82.6% | Exit below $699.69 (−10.1%) | 43% 6/14 | +9.7% / +11.1% | −33.7% / −55.2% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +95.4% | Not on one close | 56% 10/18 | +11.3% / +11.1% | −33.7% / −55.2% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | IN | Jun 30, 2023 +82.6% | Exit below $700.12 (−10.0%) | 43% 6/14 | +9.7% / +11.1% | −33.7% / −55.2% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | May 4, 2026 +8.9% | Exit below $755.23 (−2.9%) | 23% 34/150 | +6.7% / +11.0% | −23.0% / −55.2% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +95.4% | Exit below $662.23 (−14.9%) | 62% 5/8 | +9.2% / +11.0% | −33.7% / −55.2% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +15.1% | Exit below $748.09 (−3.8%) | 30% 26/88 | +8.3% / +11.0% | −20.3% / −55.2% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Exit below $765.70 (−1.6%) | 35% 164/468 | +5.4% / +11.0% | −23.1% / −55.2% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Exit below $773.33 (−0.6%) | 30% 222/748 | +1.5% / +11.0% | −40.6% / −55.2% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 −0.1% | Exit below $718.06 (−7.7%) | 38% 117/310 | +4.3% / +11.0% | −26.3% / −55.2% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Mar 31, 2023 +98.5% | Not on one close | 67% 2/3 | +12.4% / +11.1% | −33.7% / −55.2% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $779.16 (+0.1%) | 28% 216/782 | −0.9% / +11.0% | −46.5% / −55.2% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Exit below $703.45 (−9.6%) | 38% 105/280 | +3.5% / +11.0% | −34.4% / −55.2% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $725.94 (−6.7%) | 31% 54/174 | +6.8% / +11.0% | −25.5% / −55.2% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | IN | Apr 30, 2026 +8.8% | Exit below $748.57 (−3.8%) | 40% 23/58 | +8.6% / +11.1% | −21.0% / −55.2% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +95.4% | Exit below $403.31 (−48.2%) | 39% 7/18 | +9.8% / +10.9% | −33.7% / −55.2% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | IN | Aug 31, 2023 +79.8% | Not on one close | 64% 9/14 | +11.2% / +11.1% | −33.7% / −55.2% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Exit below $761.32 (−2.1%) | 32% 123/380 | +4.1% / +11.0% | −32.1% / −55.2% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Apr 21, 2026 +11.1% | Not on one close | 60% 24/40 | +5.5% / +11.0% | −55.2% / −55.2% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 +2.0% | Buy $720.78–$772.02 (−0.8%) | 59% 212/358 | +4.8% / +11.0% | −14.9% / −55.2% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Buy $720.78–$773.93 (−0.5%) | 63% 281/449 | +6.6% / +11.0% | −15.6% / −55.2% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Buy below $756.52 (−2.8%) | 64% 126/198 | +5.8% / +11.0% | −36.6% / −55.2% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | OUT | Apr 17, 2026 +10.1% | Not on one close | 61% 91/148 | +6.2% / +11.0% | −30.6% / −55.2% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 +1.3% | Not on one close | 63% 173/276 | +6.3% / +11.0% | −48.6% / −55.2% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | OUT | Aug 11, 2026 +1.2% | Not on one close | 55% 31/56 | +1.7% / +11.0% | −51.5% / −55.2% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Nov 22, 2004 +884.3% | Sell above $1,742.13 (+123.9%) | – | +11.0% / +11.0% | −55.2% / −55.2% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Apr 9, 2025 +44.2% | Not on one close | 67% 8/12 | +2.7% / +11.0% | −11.6% / −55.2% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Sep 29, 2026 +1.8% | Not on one close | 48% 138/285 | +4.4% / +11.0% | −56.0% / −55.2% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 +1.3% | Not on one close | 57% 259/452 | +4.4% / +11.0% | −47.0% / −55.2% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 +1.8% | Buy below $778.00 (0.0%) | 57% 934/1630 | +5.4% / +11.0% | −18.8% / −55.2% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Not on one close | 61% 72/118 | +5.5% / +11.0% | −28.3% / −55.2% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Exit below $773.55 (−0.6%) | 38% 409/1075 | +3.7% / +11.0% | −41.4% / −55.2% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +2.0% | Sell above $762.63 (−2.0%) | 65% 72/111 | +5.6% / +11.0% | −41.4% / −55.2% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +0.5% | Enter above $778.02 (+0.0%) | 28% 222/797 | +2.7% / +11.0% | −45.0% / −55.2% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.6% | Not on one close | 35% 64/182 | +2.5% / +11.0% | −46.1% / −55.2% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2025 +19.5% | Not on one close | 55% 21/38 | +6.1% / +11.0% | −53.9% / −55.2% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | May 29, 2009 +1,047.4% | Not on one close | 20% 2/10 | +9.9% / +11.1% | −53.5% / −55.2% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Exit below $774.28 (−0.5%) | 28% 224/790 | +2.2% / +11.0% | −46.9% / −55.2% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 +0.6% | Exit below $746.57 (−4.0%) | 33% 109/328 | +6.0% / +11.0% | −29.2% / −55.2% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below $778.00 (0.0%) | 34% 189/558 | +0.1% / +11.0% | −54.0% / −55.2% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | IN | Aug 13, 2026 +0.3% | Not on one close | 31% 37/118 | +6.5% / +11.1% | −39.4% / −55.2% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Sell $723.49–$777.34 (−0.1%) | 33% 324/979 | +1.6% / +11.0% | −38.2% / −55.2% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | OUT | Jul 2, 2026 +4.7% | Not on one close | 54% 49/90 | +4.9% / +11.0% | −44.1% / −55.2% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | IN | Jul 31, 2026 +4.4% | Exit below $727.29 (−6.5%) | 29% 29/101 | +3.6% / +11.0% | −25.5% / −55.2% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +3.4% | Not on one close | 43% 26/60 | +1.7% / +11.0% | −14.1% / −55.2% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 +8.8% | Buys Oct 30 | 44% 19/43 | +7.1% / +11.0% | −35.6% / −55.2% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Window opens Apr 1 | 50% 22/44 | +6.9% / +11.0% | −39.1% / −55.2% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | May 18, 2026 +5.9% | Window opens Oct 16 | 53% 23/43 | +7.1% / +11.0% | −33.7% / −55.2% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 +14.0% | Buys Dec 23 | 41% 18/44 | +2.2% / +11.0% | −6.7% / −55.2% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +0.4% | Buys Oct 29 | 46% 241/526 | +2.8% / +11.0% | −18.0% / −55.2% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +2.0% | Sells Jun 30 | 55% 6/11 | +4.3% / +11.0% | −19.5% / −55.2% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 +1.3% | Buys Nov 24 | 47% 187/400 | +2.1% / +11.0% | −7.5% / −55.2% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +113.3% | Not on one close | 25% 5/20 | +7.1% / +11.0% | −30.0% / −55.2% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 0.0% | Sells Oct 16 | 52% 1184/2284 | +4.5% / +11.0% | −46.8% / −55.2% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +3.4% | Buys Oct 27 | 43% 151/348 | +2.8% / +11.0% | −4.3% / −55.2% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +1.1% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 272/541 | +5.3% / +11.0% | −38.0% / −55.2% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 3, 2005 | Always in | – | +11.0% | −55.2% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureLow0 of 10 points
- Market swings0/3
- Past crashes0/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
Nothing on the checklist stands out.
- Beta1.00Moves about 1.0× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture95%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 95% as much on average.
- Two-year change+37%
- From 52-week high−0%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.