Calendar · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
Best Six + MACD on S&P 500 ETF
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
MACD (8, 17, 9)
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +6.9% | +11.0% | +9.2% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +326% | +861% | +55% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −39.1% | −55.2% | −14.9% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 13.9% | 18.9% | 11.5% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.42 | 0.55 | 0.49 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 50% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 22 of 44 closed calls (50%). In calls averaged +6.5%; out calls saw SPY move +5.3% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | IN | $769.64 | now | +1.1% | open |
| Apr 29, 2026 | OUT | $707.99 | Oct 2, 2026 | +8.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 2, 2025 | IN | $662.08 | Apr 29, 2026 | +6.9% | ✓ right |
| Apr 3, 2025 | OUT | $527.94 | Oct 2, 2025 | +25.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 11, 2024 | IN | $566.51 | Apr 3, 2025 | −6.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 1, 2024 | OUT | $507.19 | Oct 11, 2024 | +11.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 6, 2023 | IN | $414.25 | Apr 1, 2024 | +22.4% | ✓ right |
| Apr 20, 2023 | OUT | $394.36 | Oct 6, 2023 | +5.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 4, 2022 | IN | $358.87 | Apr 20, 2023 | +9.9% | ✓ right |
| Apr 5, 2022 | OUT | $424.65 | Oct 4, 2022 | −15.5% | ✓ right |
| Oct 7, 2021 | IN | $410.28 | Apr 5, 2022 | +3.5% | ✓ right |
| Apr 20, 2021 | OUT | $383.02 | Oct 7, 2021 | +7.1% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 45 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on the first MACD (8, 17, 9) cross above its signal line on or after October 1.
- Out on the first cross below on or after April 1.
The Almanac requires the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to agree. Be The Puck applies the MACD to the stock itself.
The sell-side MACD settings are not published; 8, 17, 9 is assumed.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.