Calendar · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
Presidential Sweet Spot on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +4.3% | +11.0% | +8.4% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +149% | +861% | +49% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −19.5% | −55.2% | −7.5% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 6.1% | 18.9% | 7.2% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.43 | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 17% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 0.5 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 6 of 11 closed calls (55%). In calls averaged +13.1%; out calls saw SPY move +36.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | IN | $762.63 | now | +2.0% | open |
| Jun 30, 2023 | OUT | $426.00 | Sep 30, 2026 | +79.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 30, 2022 | IN | $339.13 | Jun 30, 2023 | +25.6% | ✓ right |
| Jun 28, 2019 | OUT | $263.89 | Sep 30, 2022 | +28.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 28, 2018 | IN | $257.92 | Jun 28, 2019 | +2.3% | ✓ right |
| Jun 30, 2015 | OUT | $171.20 | Sep 28, 2018 | +50.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 30, 2014 | IN | $161.45 | Jun 30, 2015 | +6.0% | ✓ right |
| Jun 30, 2011 | OUT | $101.11 | Sep 30, 2014 | +59.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 30, 2010 | IN | $86.18 | Jun 30, 2011 | +17.3% | ✓ right |
| Jun 29, 2007 | OUT | $105.81 | Sep 30, 2010 | −18.6% | ✓ right |
| Sep 29, 2006 | IN | $92.67 | Jun 29, 2007 | +14.2% | ✓ right |
| Nov 22, 2004 | OUT | $79.04 | Sep 29, 2006 | +17.3% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 12 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at the close on the last trading day of September in a U.S. midterm-election year (2018, 2022, 2026 ...).
- Out at the close on the last trading day of June in the pre-election year that follows.
- Out for the other 13 quarters of every 4-year cycle.
The Almanac measures the sweet spot on the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Applying it to a single stock is Be The Puck's extension.
The Hirsches present the cycle as a seasonal tendency, not a mechanical system. Sitting out the rest of the time is Be The Puck's switch.
Quarter boundaries are taken at the last close of September and of June.
Where the rules come from
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.