Momentum · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
Elder Impulse on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
Latest reading: Histogram 0.94
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
MACD histogram (12, 26, 9)
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.5% | +11.0% | +1.6% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +39% | +861% | +8% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −40.6% | −55.2% | −28.8% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 11.1% | 18.9% | 11.2% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.03 | 0.55 | −0.14 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 66% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 34.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 222 of 748 closed calls (30%). In calls averaged +0.2%; out calls saw SPY move +0.5% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | IN | $769.64 | now | +1.1% | open |
| Sep 28, 2026 | OUT | $765.61 | Oct 2, 2026 | +0.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 17, 2026 | IN | $760.71 | Sep 28, 2026 | +0.6% | ✓ right |
| Sep 8, 2026 | OUT | $764.06 | Sep 17, 2026 | −0.4% | ✓ right |
| Sep 3, 2026 | IN | $771.25 | Sep 8, 2026 | −0.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 31, 2026 | OUT | $765.15 | Sep 3, 2026 | +0.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 27, 2026 | IN | $769.19 | Aug 31, 2026 | −0.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 20, 2026 | OUT | $760.71 | Aug 27, 2026 | +1.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 30, 2026 | IN | $739.85 | Aug 20, 2026 | +2.8% | ✓ right |
| Jul 23, 2026 | OUT | $736.35 | Jul 30, 2026 | +0.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 21, 2026 | IN | $746.43 | Jul 23, 2026 | −1.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 17, 2026 | OUT | $741.45 | Jul 21, 2026 | +0.7% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 749 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a green day: the 13-day EMA and the MACD histogram both rising.
- Out on a red day: both falling. Mixed days keep the last call.
Elder uses the colours as a filter inside his Triple Screen, not as a stand-alone system.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.