Breakouts & channels · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
Four-Week Rule on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +6.9% | +11.0% | +9.1% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +323% | +861% | +54% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −26.9% | −55.2% | −14.8% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 10.4% | 18.9% | 10.9% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.52 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 64% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 6.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 55 of 134 closed calls (41%). In calls averaged +2.3%; out calls saw SPY move +1.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | IN | $773.50 | now | +0.6% | open |
| Sep 10, 2026 | OUT | $755.95 | Sep 21, 2026 | +2.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 3, 2026 | IN | $755.79 | Sep 10, 2026 | +0.0% | ✓ right |
| Jul 29, 2026 | OUT | $727.65 | Aug 3, 2026 | +3.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 9, 2026 | IN | $676.48 | Jul 29, 2026 | +7.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 13, 2026 | OUT | $657.16 | Apr 9, 2026 | +2.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 5, 2025 | IN | $678.37 | Mar 13, 2026 | −3.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 18, 2025 | OUT | $653.03 | Dec 5, 2025 | +3.9% | ✕ wrong |
| May 2, 2025 | IN | $557.51 | Nov 18, 2025 | +17.1% | ✓ right |
| Feb 27, 2025 | OUT | $573.78 | May 2, 2025 | −2.8% | ✓ right |
| Jan 22, 2025 | IN | $594.76 | Feb 27, 2025 | −3.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 10, 2025 | OUT | $569.31 | Jan 22, 2025 | +4.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 135 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when a daily close is above the prior 20-day high.
- Out when a daily close is below the prior 20-day low.
The original is always in the market, long or short, and used calendar weeks. Be The Puck uses 20 trading days and holds T-bills instead of shorting.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.