Trend following · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
ADX Trend on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
Latest reading: +DI 28.95 · −DI 26.04 · ADX 9.29
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Directional movement (14)
Dashed line at 25.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +2.6% | +11.0% | +4.8% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +73% | +861% | +26% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −11.4% | −55.2% | −11.4% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 6.0% | 18.9% | 6.6% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.16 | 0.55 | 0.17 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 23% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 6.4 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 48 of 139 closed calls (35%). In calls averaged +0.6%; out calls saw SPY move +3.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | OUT | $737.23 | now | +5.5% | open |
| Jun 15, 2026 | IN | $751.02 | Jun 17, 2026 | −1.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 5, 2026 | OUT | $733.83 | Jun 15, 2026 | +2.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 13, 2026 | IN | $682.64 | Jun 5, 2026 | +7.5% | ✓ right |
| Oct 10, 2025 | OUT | $646.05 | Apr 13, 2026 | +5.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 12, 2025 | IN | $648.60 | Oct 10, 2025 | −0.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 2, 2025 | OUT | $631.68 | Sep 12, 2025 | +2.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 4, 2025 | IN | $622.71 | Sep 2, 2025 | +1.4% | ✓ right |
| Aug 1, 2025 | OUT | $613.38 | Aug 4, 2025 | +1.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 8, 2025 | IN | $612.02 | Aug 1, 2025 | +0.2% | ✓ right |
| Dec 18, 2024 | OUT | $573.05 | Jul 8, 2025 | +6.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 6, 2024 | IN | $594.10 | Dec 18, 2024 | −3.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 140 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when +DI is above −DI and ADX is above 25.
- Out when +DI falls below −DI.
The ADX filter applies Wilder's own 'above 25 is a strong trend' guide as an entry gate, a common adaptation.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.