Volume & money flow · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
On-Balance Volume on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
Latest reading: OBV 16,888,265,728.00 · 20-day average 16,926,713,856.00
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
On-balance volume
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +2.7% | +11.0% | +2.1% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +78% | +861% | +11% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −45.0% | −55.2% | −26.0% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 11.2% | 18.9% | 9.9% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.14 | 0.55 | −0.12 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 58% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 36.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 222 of 797 closed calls (28%). In calls averaged +0.2%; out calls saw SPY move +0.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | OUT | $773.93 | now | +0.5% | open |
| Oct 6, 2026 | IN | $779.09 | Oct 8, 2026 | −0.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 4, 2026 | OUT | $768.28 | Oct 6, 2026 | +1.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 3, 2026 | IN | $771.25 | Sep 4, 2026 | −0.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 28, 2026 | OUT | $767.44 | Sep 3, 2026 | +0.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 26, 2026 | IN | $764.18 | Aug 28, 2026 | +0.4% | ✓ right |
| Aug 20, 2026 | OUT | $760.71 | Aug 26, 2026 | +0.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 19, 2026 | IN | $767.15 | Aug 20, 2026 | −0.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 18, 2026 | OUT | $765.55 | Aug 19, 2026 | +0.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 30, 2026 | IN | $739.85 | Aug 18, 2026 | +3.5% | ✓ right |
| Jul 29, 2026 | OUT | $727.65 | Jul 30, 2026 | +1.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 28, 2026 | IN | $739.02 | Jul 29, 2026 | −1.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 798 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when OBV is above its 20-day average.
- Out when it is below.
The OBV is Granville's; the 20-day signal line is Be The Puck's. He read OBV's trend and divergences by eye.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.