Volume & money flow · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
Force Index on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
Latest reading: Force Index 26,450,568.00
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Force Index (13-day EMA)
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +2.2% | +11.0% | +4.1% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +61% | +861% | +22% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −46.9% | −55.2% | −20.7% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 10.5% | 18.9% | 10.2% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.09 | 0.55 | 0.07 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 59% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 36.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 224 of 790 closed calls (28%). In calls averaged +0.2%; out calls saw SPY move +0.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | IN | $769.64 | now | +1.1% | open |
| Sep 28, 2026 | OUT | $765.61 | Oct 2, 2026 | +0.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 17, 2026 | IN | $760.71 | Sep 28, 2026 | +0.6% | ✓ right |
| Sep 8, 2026 | OUT | $764.06 | Sep 17, 2026 | −0.4% | ✓ right |
| Sep 3, 2026 | IN | $771.25 | Sep 8, 2026 | −0.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 31, 2026 | OUT | $765.15 | Sep 3, 2026 | +0.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 25, 2026 | IN | $764.01 | Aug 31, 2026 | +0.1% | ✓ right |
| Aug 24, 2026 | OUT | $761.58 | Aug 25, 2026 | +0.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 21, 2026 | IN | $763.82 | Aug 24, 2026 | −0.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 20, 2026 | OUT | $760.71 | Aug 21, 2026 | +0.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 31, 2026 | IN | $745.18 | Aug 20, 2026 | +2.1% | ✓ right |
| Jul 17, 2026 | OUT | $741.45 | Jul 31, 2026 | +0.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 791 calls shown.
How the play works
- The 1-day Force Index is today's close minus yesterday's close, times today's volume.
- In when its 13-day exponential average is above zero.
- Out when it is below zero.
Elder uses the 13-day Force Index to read the intermediate trend and a 2-day version to time entries inside his Triple Screen. Using the 13-day zero line on its own is Be The Puck's simplification.
There is no buffer around zero, so the call can flip often when the line hugs zero.
Where the rules come from
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.