Breakouts & channels · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
Darvas Box on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +4.7% | +11.0% | +5.1% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +169% | +861% | +28% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −30.5% | −55.2% | −20.1% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 10.5% | 18.9% | 10.1% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.32 | 0.55 | 0.17 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 59% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 5.8 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 43 of 127 closed calls (34%). In calls averaged +1.6%; out calls saw SPY move +2.3% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | OUT | $727.65 | now | +6.9% | open |
| Jul 10, 2026 | IN | $753.08 | Jul 29, 2026 | −3.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 10, 2026 | OUT | $721.77 | Jul 10, 2026 | +4.3% | ✕ wrong |
| May 26, 2026 | IN | $746.81 | Jun 10, 2026 | −3.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 6, 2026 | OUT | $667.17 | May 26, 2026 | +11.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 23, 2025 | IN | $682.63 | Mar 6, 2026 | −2.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 18, 2025 | OUT | $653.03 | Dec 23, 2025 | +4.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 25, 2025 | IN | $541.65 | Nov 18, 2025 | +20.6% | ✓ right |
| Feb 27, 2025 | OUT | $573.78 | Apr 25, 2025 | −5.6% | ✓ right |
| Feb 18, 2025 | IN | $599.71 | Feb 27, 2025 | −4.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 18, 2024 | OUT | $573.05 | Feb 18, 2025 | +4.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 26, 2024 | IN | $587.10 | Dec 18, 2024 | −2.4% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 128 calls shown.
How the play works
- A box top is a high that isn't beaten for three days; the bottom is a low that holds for three days after that.
- In on a close above the box top. Out on a close below the latest box bottom, which ratchets up as new boxes form.
The three-day box rule is the usual reading of the book. Darvas also judged volume and picked stocks at new highs.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.