Mean reversion · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
DeMark 9-Count on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
Latest reading: Buy setup 0.00 · Sell setup 1.00
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Setup count
Dashed line at 9.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.7% | +11.0% | +4.8% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +44% | +861% | +26% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −51.5% | −55.2% | −17.6% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 14.3% | 18.9% | 12.4% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.07 | 0.55 | 0.13 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 23% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.6 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 31 of 56 closed calls (55%). In calls averaged +0.9%; out calls saw SPY move +9.3% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | OUT | $768.65 | now | +1.2% | open |
| Jul 28, 2026 | IN | $739.02 | Aug 11, 2026 | +4.0% | ✓ right |
| Apr 14, 2026 | OUT | $690.96 | Jul 28, 2026 | +7.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 12, 2026 | IN | $660.90 | Apr 14, 2026 | +4.5% | ✓ right |
| May 5, 2025 | OUT | $554.32 | Mar 12, 2026 | +19.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 5, 2025 | IN | $571.83 | May 5, 2025 | −3.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 22, 2023 | OUT | $438.82 | Mar 5, 2025 | +30.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 27, 2023 | IN | $410.88 | Nov 22, 2023 | +6.8% | ✓ right |
| Sep 5, 2023 | OUT | $431.73 | Sep 27, 2023 | −4.8% | ✓ right |
| Aug 14, 2023 | IN | $430.64 | Sep 5, 2023 | +0.3% | ✓ right |
| Oct 27, 2022 | OUT | $360.77 | Aug 14, 2023 | +19.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 31, 2022 | IN | $373.67 | Oct 27, 2022 | −3.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 57 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when a buy setup completes: 9 straight closes below the close 4 days earlier.
- Out when a sell setup completes: 9 straight closes above it.
DeMark's full Sequential waits for a 13-bar countdown and other qualifiers. The bare 9-count is a popular shortcut.
TD Sequential is a trademark of DeMark Analytics.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.