Momentum · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
TRIX Signal Cross on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
Latest reading: TRIX 0.05 · Signal 0.04
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
TRIX (15) and signal (9)
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +3.5% | +11.0% | +6.3% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +109% | +861% | +36% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −34.4% | −55.2% | −18.6% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 11.1% | 18.9% | 10.3% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.20 | 0.55 | 0.28 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 50% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 12.8 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 105 of 280 closed calls (38%). In calls averaged +0.6%; out calls saw SPY move +1.2% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | IN | $774.83 | now | +0.4% | open |
| Aug 26, 2026 | OUT | $764.18 | Oct 5, 2026 | +1.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 5, 2026 | IN | $767.88 | Aug 26, 2026 | −0.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 21, 2026 | OUT | $746.43 | Aug 5, 2026 | +2.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 14, 2026 | IN | $749.97 | Jul 21, 2026 | −0.5% | ✕ wrong |
| May 21, 2026 | OUT | $738.98 | Jul 14, 2026 | +1.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 8, 2026 | IN | $672.60 | May 21, 2026 | +9.9% | ✓ right |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OUT | $680.09 | Apr 8, 2026 | −1.1% | ✓ right |
| Dec 23, 2025 | IN | $682.63 | Jan 21, 2026 | −0.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 22, 2025 | OUT | $679.52 | Dec 23, 2025 | +0.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 4, 2025 | IN | $677.09 | Dec 22, 2025 | +0.4% | ✓ right |
| Nov 7, 2025 | OUT | $663.81 | Dec 4, 2025 | +2.0% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 281 calls shown.
How the play works
- TRIX is the 1-day percent change of the close after it has been through a 15-day exponential average three times in a row. The signal line is a 9-day exponential average of TRIX.
- In when TRIX crosses above its signal line.
- Out when it crosses below.
Hutson's 1983 version smoothed the log of price, set the length from the market's own cycle (his examples used 8 and 17 days) and sold on a fixed reversal in TRIX. The 15-day setting and the signal-line cross are the StockCharts standard used here.
StockCharts also lists a slower signal, TRIX crossing zero, which is not tested here.
Where the rules come from
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.