Trend following · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
Guppy Multiple MAs on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.6% | +11.0% | +5.0% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +227% | +861% | +28% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −21.2% | −55.2% | −16.9% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 10.4% | 18.9% | 10.3% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.41 | 0.55 | 0.16 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 69% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 6.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 40 of 136 closed calls (29%). In calls averaged +1.8%; out calls saw SPY move +1.9% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | IN | $755.79 | now | +2.9% | open |
| Jul 29, 2026 | OUT | $727.65 | Aug 3, 2026 | +3.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 15, 2026 | IN | $696.41 | Jul 29, 2026 | +4.5% | ✓ right |
| Mar 3, 2026 | OUT | $675.06 | Apr 15, 2026 | +3.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 25, 2026 | IN | $687.78 | Mar 3, 2026 | −1.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 23, 2026 | OUT | $677.10 | Feb 25, 2026 | +1.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 28, 2025 | IN | $676.10 | Feb 23, 2026 | +0.1% | ✓ right |
| Nov 20, 2025 | OUT | $645.57 | Nov 28, 2025 | +4.7% | ✕ wrong |
| May 13, 2025 | IN | $577.26 | Nov 20, 2025 | +11.8% | ✓ right |
| Feb 27, 2025 | OUT | $573.78 | May 13, 2025 | +0.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 22, 2025 | IN | $594.76 | Feb 27, 2025 | −3.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 2, 2025 | OUT | $573.38 | Jan 22, 2025 | +3.7% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 137 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when every short average (3–15 days) is above every long average (30–60 days).
- Out when the short group's average falls below the long group's.
Guppy uses the bundles to judge trend quality, not as a stand-alone signal. The strict-in, softer-out rule is Be The Puck's convention.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.