Candles & chart patterns · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
Hikkake on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +3.6% | +11.0% | +10.6% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +117% | +861% | +65% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −25.5% | −55.2% | −12.2% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 8.2% | 18.9% | 9.3% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.26 | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 36% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 4.6 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 29 of 101 closed calls (29%). In calls averaged +1.4%; out calls saw SPY move +3.8% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | IN | $745.18 | now | +4.4% | open |
| Feb 4, 2026 | OUT | $680.87 | Jul 31, 2026 | +9.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 23, 2025 | IN | $526.68 | Feb 4, 2026 | +29.3% | ✓ right |
| Apr 3, 2025 | OUT | $527.94 | Apr 23, 2025 | −0.2% | ✓ right |
| Mar 17, 2025 | IN | $556.22 | Apr 3, 2025 | −5.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 3, 2025 | OUT | $586.25 | Mar 17, 2025 | −5.1% | ✓ right |
| Nov 5, 2024 | IN | $563.69 | Feb 3, 2025 | +4.0% | ✓ right |
| Apr 15, 2024 | OUT | $489.98 | Nov 5, 2024 | +15.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 19, 2024 | IN | $500.92 | Apr 15, 2024 | −2.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 31, 2024 | OUT | $467.58 | Mar 19, 2024 | +7.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 30, 2023 | IN | $440.15 | Jan 31, 2024 | +6.2% | ✓ right |
| Aug 2, 2023 | OUT | $432.58 | Nov 30, 2023 | +1.8% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 102 calls shown.
How the play works
- Setup: an inside day (a lower high and a higher low than the day before), then a day with a lower high and a lower low than the inside day (bullish) or a higher high and a higher low (bearish).
- In at the close if, within 3 sessions after a bullish setup, a close is above the inside day's high. The stop is the lowest low of the pattern.
- Out at the close if a close falls below that stop, or if a bearish setup is confirmed by a close below the inside day's low within 3 sessions.
Chesler enters during the day when price crosses the inside day's high. On daily bars the close must clear it.
Chesler gives no profit target, so a trade ends only at the stop or on an opposite hikkake.
If a newer setup forms, it replaces the older one.
Where the rules come from
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.