Breakouts & channels · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
NR7 Breakout on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −0.3% | +11.0% | −0.1% | +13.9% |
| Total return | −6% | +861% | 0% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −54.3% | −55.2% | −31.3% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 10.2% | 18.9% | 9.3% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.15 | 0.55 | −0.37 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 52% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 36.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 247 of 793 closed calls (31%). In calls averaged +0.1%; out calls saw SPY move +0.6% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | OUT | $777.22 | now | +0.1% | open |
| Oct 6, 2026 | IN | $779.09 | Oct 7, 2026 | −0.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 23, 2026 | OUT | $767.81 | Oct 6, 2026 | +1.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 21, 2026 | IN | $773.50 | Sep 23, 2026 | −0.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 14, 2026 | OUT | $759.00 | Sep 21, 2026 | +1.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 11, 2026 | IN | $762.40 | Sep 14, 2026 | −0.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 8, 2026 | OUT | $764.06 | Sep 11, 2026 | −0.2% | ✓ right |
| Sep 3, 2026 | IN | $771.25 | Sep 8, 2026 | −0.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 1, 2026 | OUT | $759.89 | Sep 3, 2026 | +1.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 27, 2026 | IN | $769.19 | Sep 1, 2026 | −1.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 17, 2026 | OUT | $770.76 | Aug 27, 2026 | −0.2% | ✓ right |
| Aug 13, 2026 | IN | $775.95 | Aug 17, 2026 | −0.7% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 794 calls shown.
How the play works
- An NR7 day's range is smaller than each of the 6 days before it.
- In when a later close is above the high of the latest NR7 day.
- Out when a later close is below the low of the latest NR7 day. Each new NR7 day resets both levels.
Crabel traded breakouts from the day's opening range and took profits fast. Be The Puck uses StockCharts' daily version and holds until the opposite break.
Breakouts are judged on closes, not intraday highs and lows.
The range is measured in price (high minus low), as Crabel did, not in percent.
Where the rules come from
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.