Candles & chart patterns · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
Turtle Soup Plus One on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.7% | +11.0% | +4.3% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +45% | +861% | +23% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −14.1% | −55.2% | −3.0% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 4.0% | 18.9% | 2.2% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.01 | 0.55 | 0.21 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 3% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.8 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 26 of 60 closed calls (43%). In calls averaged +0.2%; out calls saw SPY move +8.5% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | OUT | $752.18 | now | +3.4% | open |
| Sep 11, 2026 | IN | $762.40 | Sep 16, 2026 | −1.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 7, 2026 | OUT | $771.35 | Sep 11, 2026 | −1.2% | ✓ right |
| Jul 30, 2026 | IN | $739.85 | Aug 7, 2026 | +4.3% | ✓ right |
| Mar 19, 2026 | OUT | $654.69 | Jul 30, 2026 | +13.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 16, 2026 | IN | $663.85 | Mar 19, 2026 | −1.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 20, 2025 | OUT | $645.57 | Mar 16, 2026 | +2.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 19, 2025 | IN | $655.56 | Nov 20, 2025 | −1.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 22, 2025 | OUT | $594.76 | Nov 19, 2025 | +10.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 13, 2025 | IN | $570.19 | Jan 22, 2025 | +4.3% | ✓ right |
| Oct 12, 2023 | OUT | $418.22 | Jan 13, 2025 | +36.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 4, 2023 | IN | $409.54 | Oct 12, 2023 | +2.1% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 61 calls shown.
How the play works
- Day 1: the close is below the lowest low of the prior 20 sessions, and that low was set at least 3 sessions earlier.
- Day 2: in at the close if the close is back above that old 20-day low.
- Out at the close if a close falls below the lower of the day-1 and day-2 lows (the stop), or after 6 sessions in the trade.
The book buys during day 2 with a stop order at the old low. On daily bars the close must be above it.
The book takes partial profits within 2 to 6 bars and trails a stop on the rest. A 6-session time exit stands in for both.
The original Turtle Soup (same-day entry, old low at least 4 days back) is the sister pattern. Plus One is used because it waits for a closing confirmation.
The authors also sell short failed breakouts to new highs. Be The Puck tests only the long side.
Where the rules come from
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.