Trend following · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
Ripster EMA Cloud on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +6.3% | +11.0% | +8.2% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +278% | +861% | +48% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −29.4% | −55.2% | −18.0% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 10.8% | 18.9% | 11.0% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.46 | 0.55 | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 72% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 15.4 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 86 of 334 closed calls (26%). In calls averaged +0.9%; out calls saw SPY move +0.6% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | IN | $760.71 | now | +2.3% | open |
| Sep 15, 2026 | OUT | $755.51 | Sep 17, 2026 | +0.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 11, 2026 | IN | $762.40 | Sep 15, 2026 | −0.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 10, 2026 | OUT | $755.95 | Sep 11, 2026 | +0.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 31, 2026 | IN | $745.18 | Sep 10, 2026 | +1.4% | ✓ right |
| Jul 29, 2026 | OUT | $727.65 | Jul 31, 2026 | +2.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 8, 2026 | IN | $672.60 | Jul 29, 2026 | +8.2% | ✓ right |
| Mar 3, 2026 | OUT | $675.06 | Apr 8, 2026 | −0.4% | ✓ right |
| Feb 24, 2026 | IN | $682.02 | Mar 3, 2026 | −1.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 23, 2026 | OUT | $677.10 | Feb 24, 2026 | +0.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 20, 2026 | IN | $684.09 | Feb 23, 2026 | −1.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 12, 2026 | OUT | $675.99 | Feb 20, 2026 | +1.2% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 335 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when a daily close is above the 34/50 cloud.
- Out when a daily close is below the cloud.
- Inside the cloud, the rule keeps its last call.
Ripster uses several clouds and timeframes. Be The Puck grades the 34/50 bias cloud on daily bars.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.