Trend following · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
PB EMA on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +3.4% | +11.0% | +5.1% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +105% | +861% | +28% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −48.9% | −55.2% | −23.0% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 11.0% | 18.9% | 10.6% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.20 | 0.55 | 0.16 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 67% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 28.9 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 173 of 628 closed calls (28%). In calls averaged +0.3%; out calls saw SPY move +0.5% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | IN | $769.64 | now | +1.1% | open |
| Sep 29, 2026 | OUT | $764.20 | Oct 2, 2026 | +0.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 18, 2026 | IN | $761.69 | Sep 29, 2026 | +0.3% | ✓ right |
| Sep 8, 2026 | OUT | $764.06 | Sep 18, 2026 | −0.3% | ✓ right |
| Sep 3, 2026 | IN | $771.25 | Sep 8, 2026 | −0.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 1, 2026 | OUT | $759.89 | Sep 3, 2026 | +1.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 27, 2026 | IN | $769.19 | Sep 1, 2026 | −1.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 20, 2026 | OUT | $760.71 | Aug 27, 2026 | +1.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 31, 2026 | IN | $745.18 | Aug 20, 2026 | +2.1% | ✓ right |
| Jul 23, 2026 | OUT | $736.35 | Jul 31, 2026 | +1.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 21, 2026 | IN | $746.43 | Jul 23, 2026 | −1.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 17, 2026 | OUT | $741.45 | Jul 21, 2026 | +0.7% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 629 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when a daily close is above both EMAs.
- Out when a daily close is below both EMAs.
- Inside the band, the rule keeps its last call.
The PB EMA's lengths were never stated in its public description, and the TradingView page was taken down on 30 Sep 2026. Be The Puck tests the two-EMA band with 12 and 21 days until the real lengths are confirmed.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.