Trend following · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
Elder Triple Screen on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
- ✓Weekly MACD histogram rising (the tide)
- ✕2-day Force Index below zero (the pullback)
Latest reading: Histogram −0.96
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Weekly MACD histogram (12, 26, 9)
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +4.4% | +11.0% | +8.9% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +153% | +861% | +53% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −28.1% | −55.2% | −14.0% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 7.9% | 18.9% | 7.9% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.36 | 0.55 | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 30% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 10.1 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 79 of 222 closed calls (36%). In calls averaged +0.8%; out calls saw SPY move +1.5% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | OUT | $733.83 | now | +6.0% | open |
| Apr 24, 2026 | IN | $710.34 | Jun 5, 2026 | +3.3% | ✓ right |
| Jan 16, 2026 | OUT | $686.30 | Apr 24, 2026 | +3.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 15, 2026 | IN | $686.88 | Jan 16, 2026 | −0.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 12, 2025 | OUT | $674.48 | Jan 15, 2026 | +1.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 10, 2025 | IN | $680.23 | Dec 12, 2025 | −0.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 18, 2025 | OUT | $619.16 | Dec 10, 2025 | +9.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 22, 2025 | IN | $518.65 | Jul 18, 2025 | +19.4% | ✓ right |
| Feb 7, 2025 | OUT | $589.20 | Apr 22, 2025 | −12.0% | ✓ right |
| Jan 28, 2025 | IN | $592.87 | Feb 7, 2025 | −0.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 13, 2024 | OUT | $590.58 | Jan 28, 2025 | +0.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 29, 2024 | IN | $588.96 | Dec 13, 2024 | +0.3% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 223 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when, as of yesterday, the weekly MACD histogram (12, 26, 9) was rising and the 2-day average of the Force Index (price change × volume) was below zero, and today's close is above yesterday's high.
- Out when the weekly histogram turns down, or on a close below the lower of the entry day's and the previous day's lows (the protective stop).
Elder's trigger is a buy-stop order just above the previous day's high, filled during the day. Be The Puck waits for a close above it.
Elder leaves exits to the trader. Selling when the weekly tide turns or the first stop is hit is Be The Puck's reduction.
The weekly screen uses finished weeks only (Friday's close, Sunday's for crypto). Inside a week it reads the week before. A buy is skipped if the week that ends that day turns the histogram down.
Elder also sells short when the weekly tide is down. Be The Puck holds T-bills instead.
Where the rules come from
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.