Trend following · weekly rule · Indexes & ETFs
Stage 2 + Mansfield RS on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
Latest reading: Mansfield RS 0.0%
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Mansfield relative strength vs SPY
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +8.2% | +11.0% | +12.1% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +451% | +861% | +76% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −21.4% | −55.2% | −16.4% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 11.5% | 18.9% | 11.3% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 79% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 3.9 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 23 of 84 closed calls (27%). In calls averaged +4.4%; out calls saw SPY move +1.6% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2026 | IN | $676.03 | now | +15.1% | open |
| Mar 13, 2026 | OUT | $657.16 | Apr 10, 2026 | +2.9% | ✕ wrong |
| May 16, 2025 | IN | $584.50 | Mar 13, 2026 | +12.4% | ✓ right |
| Mar 7, 2025 | OUT | $564.82 | May 16, 2025 | +3.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 3, 2023 | IN | $419.22 | Mar 7, 2025 | +34.7% | ✓ right |
| Oct 20, 2023 | OUT | $406.20 | Nov 3, 2023 | +3.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 17, 2023 | IN | $373.40 | Oct 20, 2023 | +8.8% | ✓ right |
| Mar 10, 2023 | OUT | $368.09 | Mar 17, 2023 | +1.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 6, 2023 | IN | $370.16 | Mar 10, 2023 | −0.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 16, 2022 | OUT | $365.57 | Jan 6, 2023 | +1.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 11, 2022 | IN | $378.37 | Dec 16, 2022 | −3.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 26, 2022 | OUT | $383.25 | Nov 11, 2022 | −1.3% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 85 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when a weekly close is above the 30-week average and the stock's strength against SPY is above its own 52-week average.
- Out when either fails.
Weinstein also waits for a breakout from a base on heavy volume, which a mechanical test can't judge.
Relative strength is measured against SPY. On SPY itself only the 30-week test applies.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.