Trend following · daily rule · Indexes & ETFs
Golden Cross on S&P 500 ETF
What the play says
SPY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +9.4% | +11.0% | +12.2% | +13.9% |
| Total return | +601% | +861% | +78% | +91% |
| Worst drawdown | −33.7% | −55.2% | −18.8% | −24.5% |
| Volatility | 13.7% | 18.9% | 13.5% | 17.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 80% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 0.9 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 10 of 20 closed calls (50%). In calls averaged +20.0%; out calls saw SPY move +5.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SPY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2025 | IN | $606.66 | now | +28.2% | open |
| Apr 16, 2025 | OUT | $517.08 | Jun 27, 2025 | +17.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 26, 2023 | IN | $386.06 | Apr 16, 2025 | +33.9% | ✓ right |
| Mar 16, 2022 | OUT | $408.87 | Jan 26, 2023 | −5.6% | ✓ right |
| Jul 6, 2020 | IN | $291.25 | Mar 16, 2022 | +40.4% | ✓ right |
| Mar 31, 2020 | OUT | $235.74 | Jul 6, 2020 | +23.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 26, 2019 | IN | $251.97 | Mar 31, 2020 | −6.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 12, 2018 | OUT | $235.51 | Mar 26, 2019 | +7.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 20, 2016 | IN | $177.60 | Dec 12, 2018 | +32.6% | ✓ right |
| Jan 15, 2016 | OUT | $157.94 | Apr 20, 2016 | +12.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 9, 2015 | IN | $171.66 | Jan 15, 2016 | −8.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 3, 2015 | OUT | $162.63 | Dec 9, 2015 | +5.6% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 21 calls shown.
How the play works
- In while the 50-day average is above the 200-day (after a golden cross).
- Out while it is below (after a death cross).
No single person invented it, so Be The Puck credits market tradition.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.