Energy & power

Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE)

C$14.14 +3.1% on the day·+141.0% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy83 / 100

Buy: 83 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−1% from its 1-year high) scores 97 and lifts it; Plays in (67%) scores 67 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	TVE	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	67%	67	40	26.8
Off the high	−1% from its 1-year high	97	30	29.1
Trend	+21% vs 200-day	90	30	27.0

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for TVE

Factor	TVE	Points	What it is
Plays in	67%	67	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+19% · 9 analysts	56	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.6 · buy	72	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	282.8×	3	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	15.9×	50	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	–	–	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth.
Price to sales	4.4×	42	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	3.6×	40	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	1.5%	40	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+153%	88	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+43%	81	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	2%	23	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	1%	19	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.18×	75	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−1% from its 1-year high	97	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+21% vs 200-day	90	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+141%	97	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	6/10 · high	40	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on TVE

67 of the 100 plays hold TVE right now.
The trend-following, momentum and volume plays mostly say in.
It closed 21% above its 200-day average and 1% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads high: it fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes and operating profit covers interest only 0.4×.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$16.83, 19% above the close (9 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in67 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureHigh6 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.21×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+21%). Higher than on 69% of days since 2008. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about TVE now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn TVE: right 18 of 36 · Out since Feb 11, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn TVE: right 62 of 214 · Out since Oct 2, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn TVE: right 7 of 17 · In since Jun 30, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn TVE: right 97 of 144 · Out since Aug 10, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn TVE: right 32 of 66 · Out since Oct 8, 2024 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn TVE: right 45 of 95 · In since Aug 26, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn TVE: right 16 of 37 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

TVE, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved TVE lately

Its biggest move against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Sep 15+5.6% against the S&P/TSX2.2× a normal day

TVE +5.2%, the S&P/TSX −0.3% that session; −3.1% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on TVE was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for TVE starts Oct 3, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.3%. The 58 other Energy & power stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.9% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Wed Oct 28, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 0.26.

Over its last 12 reports, TVE's typical move against the S&P/TSX at the first close after the report was ±2.1% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 5 times.
TVE after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 5 of 14 times (median −2.2%).
TVE after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 9 of 23 times (median +0.9%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on TVE

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following25 of 30 in Breakouts & channels6 of 15 in Momentum17 of 17 in Mean reversion6 of 15 in Volume & money flow7 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on TVE went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2008. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +5.7%	Exit below C$13.46 (−4.8%)	22% 122/557	−25.8% / +8.4%	−100.0% / −94.3%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	May 16, 2025 +232.1%	Exit below C$12.86 (−9.0%)	30% 24/79	+15.1% / +14.2%	−67.6% / −94.3%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +5.7%	Exit below C$13.33 (−5.7%)	20% 63/319	−15.5% / +6.9%	−99.7% / −94.3%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below C$13.38 (−5.4%)	19% 26/139	+7.7% / +14.3%	−52.5% / −94.3%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	May 23, 2025 +232.1%	Exit below C$12.73 (−10.0%)	28% 12/43	+23.6% / +12.0%	−64.4% / −94.3%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	May 16, 2025 +232.1%	Exit below C$12.73 (−10.0%)	24% 12/49	+19.4% / +14.3%	−67.3% / −94.3%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	May 30, 2025 +231.9%	Exit below C$12.04 (−14.9%)	48% 11/23	+27.3% / +13.2%	−54.0% / −94.3%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	May 12, 2025 +251.3%	Exit below C$11.71 (−17.2%)	19% 19/101	+21.3% / +12.4%	−61.3% / −94.3%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Jun 24, 2025 +204.7%	Not on one close	48% 10/21	+19.6% / +12.4%	−61.5% / −94.3%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	May 12, 2025 +251.3%	Exit below C$11.71 (−17.2%)	27% 14/51	+24.0% / +13.7%	−48.5% / −94.3%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +5.7%	Exit below C$13.41 (−5.1%)	38% 42/110	+11.1% / +6.4%	−78.8% / −94.3%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +5.7%	Exit below C$13.49 (−4.6%)	21% 147/691	−23.2% / +8.6%	−99.8% / −94.3%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +3.1%	Exit below C$12.60 (−10.9%)	31% 70/223	−6.7% / +10.7%	−94.5% / −94.3%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	May 21, 2025 +229.8%	Not on one close	22% 6/27	+12.9% / +15.6%	−76.4% / −94.3%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below C$12.44 (−12.0%)	27% 30/111	+5.9% / +7.8%	−77.7% / −94.3%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	May 13, 2025 +241.4%	Exit below C$12.98 (−8.2%)	33% 27/82	+8.3% / +5.7%	−91.0% / −94.3%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Aug 18, 2026 +2.9%	Exit below C$12.81 (−9.4%)	28% 44/155	−17.0% / +8.2%	−99.7% / −94.3%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +8.9%	Not on one close	38% 96/256	+5.6% / +8.2%	−84.5% / −94.3%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below C$12.08 (−14.6%)	33% 167/511	+6.8% / +9.7%	−72.7% / −94.3%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +8.4%	Enter above C$14.42 (+2.0%)	36% 67/184	+8.1% / +8.2%	−78.3% / −94.3%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below C$12.96 (−8.4%)	33% 137/409	−13.2% / +8.2%	−97.9% / −94.3%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Apr 8, 2026 +32.7%	Not on one close	31% 41/132	−0.2% / +8.2%	−85.3% / −94.3%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below C$12.51 (−11.5%)	31% 47/152	+5.8% / +7.7%	−91.0% / −94.3%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Aug 14, 2026 +7.4%	Exit below C$13.18 (−6.8%)	33% 91/276	+0.8% / +8.4%	−93.3% / −94.3%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +3.1%	Not on one close	28% 58/204	−4.8% / +7.7%	−95.0% / −94.3%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.2%	Not on one close	32% 61/189	−5.2% / +10.7%	−93.1% / −94.3%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below C$12.46 (−11.9%)	29% 44/153	+2.4% / +6.9%	−91.0% / −94.3%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	May 20, 2025 +233.6%	Exit below C$11.11 (−21.4%)	30% 24/80	+6.9% / +6.9%	−79.2% / −94.3%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +6.2%	Not on one close	36% 53/149	−1.9% / +10.2%	−84.8% / −94.3%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Feb 11, 2026 +45.3%	Not on one close	50% 18/36	+3.3% / +7.7%	−12.3% / −94.3%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +8.9%	Enter above C$14.42 (+2.0%)	36% 33/92	+9.3% / +8.2%	−68.2% / −94.3%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +8.9%	Enter above C$14.42 (+2.0%)	31% 35/112	+9.2% / +8.1%	−57.3% / −94.3%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +8.4%	Enter above C$14.42 (+2.0%)	32% 26/80	+9.0% / +8.1%	−65.9% / −94.3%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Aug 27, 2026 +1.3%	Exit below C$12.90 (−8.8%)	33% 22/67	+11.0% / +6.9%	−56.1% / −94.3%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Nov 7, 2025 +117.5%	Exit below C$12.95 (−8.4%)	34% 33/97	−3.9% / +8.2%	−94.1% / −94.3%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Jun 12, 2026 +9.3%	Enter above C$14.31 (+1.2%)	26% 37/140	−12.7% / +8.6%	−98.0% / −94.3%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$13.36 (−5.5%)	34% 57/169	+0.2% / +8.4%	−83.7% / −94.3%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +8.9%	Enter above C$14.27 (+0.9%)	34% 59/176	−6.0% / +8.4%	−94.5% / −94.3%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 +8.4%	Enter above C$14.24 (+0.7%)	29% 53/181	−15.7% / +8.2%	−99.8% / −94.3%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +5.7%	Enter above C$14.49 (+2.5%)	29% 62/214	−5.3% / +8.4%	−93.2% / −94.3%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$13.14 (−7.1%)	25% 80/317	−15.8% / +8.2%	−99.5% / −94.3%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	May 20, 2026 +9.5%	Not on one close	26% 45/176	−13.7% / +8.2%	−97.3% / −94.3%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$12.83 (−9.2%)	41% 35/85	+1.2% / +8.6%	−55.0% / −94.3%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +5.1%	Exit below C$13.63 (−3.6%)	31% 145/473	−1.4% / +9.9%	−91.5% / −94.3%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +4.6%	Not on one close	38% 9/24	+4.1% / +9.2%	−18.1% / −94.3%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	May 30, 2025 +231.9%	Exit below C$6.37 (−54.9%)	47% 9/19	+10.1% / +14.9%	−82.4% / −94.3%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Jun 30, 2025 +199.5%	Not on one close	41% 7/17	+13.0% / +14.9%	−82.7% / −94.3%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	May 30, 2025 +231.9%	Exit below C$7.09 (−49.9%)	29% 6/21	+6.9% / +14.9%	−81.4% / −94.3%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +7.0%	Exit below C$13.11 (−7.3%)	25% 21/85	+14.2% / +6.9%	−48.0% / −94.3%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Jun 30, 2025 +199.5%	Exit below C$12.13 (−14.2%)	54% 7/13	+14.0% / +13.4%	−40.0% / −94.3%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +5.7%	Exit below C$13.42 (−5.1%)	27% 22/83	+13.2% / +7.0%	−75.7% / −94.3%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +6.2%	Exit below C$12.60 (−10.9%)	31% 118/382	−16.3% / +7.7%	−99.4% / −94.3%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +5.7%	Exit below C$13.52 (−4.4%)	25% 164/660	−22.8% / +7.7%	−99.9% / −94.3%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +3.1%	Exit below C$12.41 (−12.2%)	33% 91/272	−9.1% / +8.8%	−96.2% / −94.3%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Feb 29, 2024 +352.9%	Not on one close	44% 7/16	+16.4% / +13.0%	−78.4% / −94.3%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +3.1%	Exit below C$13.49 (−4.6%)	26% 126/479	−5.0% / +11.9%	−90.0% / −94.3%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$11.97 (−15.3%)	36% 80/223	−2.3% / +6.9%	−83.7% / −94.3%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below C$12.52 (−11.4%)	31% 46/149	+4.7% / +6.9%	−91.0% / −94.3%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	May 30, 2025 +231.9%	Exit below C$12.41 (−12.2%)	40% 22/55	+21.5% / +14.9%	−72.2% / −94.3%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Jun 30, 2025 +199.5%	Not on one close	38% 6/16	+9.5% / +6.7%	−82.7% / −94.3%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Jun 30, 2025 +199.5%	Not on one close	37% 7/19	+6.4% / +14.9%	−85.9% / −94.3%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +3.1%	Exit below C$12.78 (−9.6%)	30% 84/277	−3.7% / +10.7%	−89.3% / −94.3%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 12, 2025 +208.6%	Not on one close	56% 20/36	−1.3% / +8.5%	−94.1% / −94.3%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 10, 2026 +7.8%	Not on one close	60% 123/206	+10.4% / +12.4%	−49.2% / −94.3%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +5.7%	Buy C$11.71–C$13.31 (−5.9%)	65% 175/268	+14.8% / +12.4%	−62.0% / −94.3%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 10, 2026 +7.8%	Buy below C$12.74 (−9.9%)	67% 97/144	+9.2% / +8.4%	−95.3% / −94.3%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +7.0%	Sell C$13.25–C$14.07 (−0.5%)	56% 70/125	−10.1% / +11.1%	−97.3% / −94.3%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +6.7%	Exit below C$14.00 (−1.0%)	60% 157/263	−1.8% / +11.6%	−96.8% / −94.3%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Aug 21, 2026 +3.0%	Not on one close	64% 37/58	+0.4% / +8.0%	−92.1% / −94.3%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 27, 2008 +811.5%	Sell above C$28.29 (+100.1%)	–	+12.4% / +12.4%	−94.3% / −94.3%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Apr 9, 2025 +286.2%	Not on one close	70% 31/44	−0.6% / +10.7%	−78.1% / −94.3%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +4.3%	Exit below C$13.63 (−3.6%)	42% 118/281	−14.8% / +8.6%	−99.6% / −94.3%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +6.2%	Not on one close	52% 197/376	+2.3% / +8.6%	−92.8% / −94.3%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 +7.0%	Buy below C$14.14 (0.0%)	55% 852/1548	+42.1% / +7.5%	−70.4% / −94.3%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +3.2%	Not on one close	66% 38/58	+4.0% / +15.8%	−73.6% / −94.3%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +7.3%	Exit below C$13.45 (−4.9%)	32% 290/914	−21.0% / +7.7%	−99.9% / −94.3%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +4.7%	Sell above C$13.45 (−4.9%)	62% 61/99	−6.4% / +8.2%	−97.6% / −94.3%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +7.3%	Not on one close	27% 133/486	+0.1% / +8.4%	−84.2% / −94.3%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.2%	Not on one close	41% 82/200	+5.9% / +8.2%	−86.4% / −94.3%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2024 +258.1%	Not on one close	48% 32/66	−4.4% / +8.5%	−94.3% / −94.3%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 +3.9%	Enter above C$15.76 (+11.5%)	36% 26/73	+4.8% / +13.4%	−74.2% / −94.3%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +7.0%	Exit below C$13.06 (−7.7%)	31% 147/478	−0.1% / +8.2%	−90.3% / −94.3%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +3.2%	Exit below C$10.83 (−23.4%)	29% 98/343	−11.2% / +12.8%	−97.1% / −94.3%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +6.2%	Not on one close	36% 163/458	−5.4% / +8.2%	−95.4% / −94.3%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Oct 16, 2023 +300.7%	Not on one close	27% 22/83	+0.4% / +13.4%	−93.6% / −94.3%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +7.0%	Not on one close	34% 218/650	−7.8% / +7.0%	−95.9% / −94.3%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Aug 26, 2026 +5.4%	Exit below C$13.86 (−2.0%)	47% 45/95	+4.6% / +7.6%	−83.4% / −94.3%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +8.4%	Not on one close	43% 18/42	+11.1% / +8.0%	−50.4% / −94.3%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 +7.4%	Not on one close	42% 11/26	−0.5% / +8.4%	−28.8% / −94.3%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +11.7%	Buys Oct 30	43% 16/37	+6.6% / +7.5%	−86.5% / −94.3%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +5.7%	Window opens Apr 1	54% 20/37	+11.8% / +7.7%	−81.6% / −94.3%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 +28.0%	Window opens Oct 16	50% 18/36	+14.2% / +7.7%	−80.8% / −94.3%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +86.3%	Buys Dec 23	58% 21/36	+4.8% / +7.5%	−23.1% / −94.3%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +5.1%	Buys Oct 29	45% 201/448	−0.7% / +7.5%	−78.0% / −94.3%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +7.3%	Sells Jun 30	22% 2/9	−5.3% / +7.5%	−87.6% / −94.3%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +6.2%	Buys Nov 24	45% 148/330	+4.0% / +7.5%	−39.4% / −94.3%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +258.7%	Not on one close	56% 9/16	+4.8% / +13.3%	−76.4% / −94.3%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	44% 847/1947	−3.6% / +7.5%	−96.1% / −94.3%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +4.6%	Buys Oct 27	45% 134/296	+4.7% / +7.5%	−25.1% / −94.3%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +5.7%	Sells Oct 16	45% 208/461	−1.2% / +7.5%	−87.8% / −94.3%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Feb 13, 2008	Always in	–	+7.5%	−94.3%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureHigh6 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes1/2
Debt3/3
Run-up2/2

It fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes.
It operating profit covers interest only 0.4×.
It is up 249% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Feb 2021

TVE−74%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Sep 2022 · back to its old high Sep 2022

TVE−13%

TSX−14%

Beta0.68Moves about 0.7× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture27%In months the TSX fell, this fell 27% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+249%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−1%
Debt to equity0.19×
Net debt / EBITDANet cashHolds more cash than debt.
Interest cover0.4×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Oil & Gas E&P · Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin. The company's oil and natural gas properties are the Clearwater and Charlie Lake assets located in the province of Alberta, Canada. The company was formerly known as Tango Energy Inc. and changed its name to Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. in June 2010. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$6.7B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	C$1.5B	Total sales. The market values it at 4.4× sales.
P/E ratio	282.8×	Buyers pay C$283 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	15.9×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	3.6×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	1.6%	Keeps 2¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+42.7%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+152.9%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	1.2%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	C$439M	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	C$1.8B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	C$340M	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	C$508M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.19×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	0.4×	Operating profit divided by interest. Under 2× means one bad year could make the interest hard to pay.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$16.83	19% above the close, from 9 analysts (range C$15.50 to C$18.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	1.46%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

TVE: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Energy & power: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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