Breakouts & channels · daily rule · Energy & power
P&F Double Top on Tamarack Valley Energy
What the play says
TVE with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2008
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding TVE over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2008 | Hold, since 2008 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −5.3% | +8.4% | +6.4% | +37.2% |
| Total return | −64% | +341% | +36% | +383% |
| Worst drawdown | −93.2% | −94.3% | −63.7% | −53.7% |
| Volatility | 53.9% | 84.8% | 31.5% | 42.4% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.14 | 0.47 | 0.24 | 0.87 |
| Time invested | 56% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 11.6 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 62 of 214 closed calls (29%). In calls averaged +1.3%; out calls saw TVE move +4.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | TVE moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | OUT | C$13.38 | now | +5.7% | open |
| Aug 18, 2026 | IN | C$13.74 | Oct 2, 2026 | −2.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 18, 2026 | OUT | C$12.14 | Aug 18, 2026 | +13.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 22, 2026 | IN | C$11.72 | Jun 18, 2026 | +3.5% | ✓ right |
| Apr 8, 2026 | OUT | C$10.66 | Apr 22, 2026 | +10.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 17, 2025 | IN | C$3.76 | Apr 8, 2026 | +183.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 3, 2025 | OUT | C$3.81 | Apr 17, 2025 | −1.5% | ✓ right |
| Sep 23, 2024 | IN | C$3.92 | Mar 3, 2025 | −2.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 10, 2024 | OUT | C$3.38 | Sep 23, 2024 | +15.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 28, 2024 | IN | C$3.51 | Sep 10, 2024 | −3.7% | ✕ wrong |
| May 23, 2024 | OUT | C$3.27 | Jun 28, 2024 | +7.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 27, 2024 | IN | C$3.12 | May 23, 2024 | +5.0% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 215 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a double-top breakout: the current X column rises at least one box above the top of the previous X column.
- Out on a double-bottom breakdown: the current O column falls at least one box below the bottom of the previous O column.
- Otherwise the rule keeps the chart's last signal.
Boxes are 2% apart, and a new column needs a 3-box reversal (about 6%). Dorsey's classic box table uses fixed price bands; ChartSchool's examples use 1% boxes.
The chart is built from daily highs and lows by StockCharts' high-low method: a new box from the high wins, and the low only counts if it reverses the column.
The signal fires on the day the breakout box fills during the day. Be The Puck acts on that day's close.
Where the rules come from
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.