Consumer & retail

Restaurant Brands International (QSR)

C$101.44 +0.3% on the day·+12.3% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Hold48 / 100

Hold: 48 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−9% from its 1-year high) scores 69 and lifts it; Plays in (35%) scores 35 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	QSR	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	35%	35	40	14.0
Off the high	−9% from its 1-year high	69	30	20.7
Trend	+1% vs 200-day	44	30	13.2

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for QSR

Factor	QSR	Points	What it is
Plays in	35%	35	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+15% · 4 analysts	51	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.9 · buy	56	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	19.1×	67	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	16.3×	49	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	0.88	74	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	2.3×	66	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book	5.8×	28	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	3.6%	78	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Earnings growth	+41%	66	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	+7%	29	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin	13%	56	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity	33%	86	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity	3.44×	3	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high	−9% from its 1-year high	69	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+1% vs 200-day	44	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+12%	48	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	4/10 · moderate	60	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on QSR

35 of the 100 plays hold QSR right now.
The trend-following and breakout plays mostly say out.
It closed 1% above its 200-day average and 9% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads moderate: it fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes and carries 4.3× as much debt as equity.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$117.08, 15% above the close (4 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in35 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureModerate4 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.01×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+1%). Higher than on 39% of days since 2015. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about QSR now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn QSR: right 10 of 26 · Out since Jun 12, 2023 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn QSR: right 6 of 38 · In since Feb 27, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn QSR: right 13 of 26 · In since Dec 31, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn QSR: right 59 of 96 · Out since Oct 13, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn QSR: right 18 of 28 · Out since Jun 30, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn QSR: right 42 of 85 · In since Sep 25, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn QSR: right 13 of 23 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

QSR, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved QSR lately

Its 2 biggest moves against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Thu Sep 17−3.4% against the S&P/TSX2.1× a normal day

QSR −2.3%, the S&P/TSX +1.1% that session; −3.4% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on QSR was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for QSR starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved +1.1%. The 33 other Consumer & retail stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.4% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Tue Sep 15−3.7% against the S&P/TSX2.4× a normal day

QSR −4.1%, the S&P/TSX −0.3% that session; −7.2% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on QSR was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for QSR starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.3%. The 33 other Consumer & retail stocks Be The Puck covers moved −1.6% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Thu Oct 29, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 1.08.

Over its last 12 reports, QSR's typical move against the S&P/TSX at the first close after the report was ±2.6% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 3 times.
QSR after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 16 of 23 times (median +2.2%).
QSR after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 8 of 12 times (median −1.3%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on QSR

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following6 of 30 in Breakouts & channels1 of 15 in Momentum9 of 17 in Mean reversion9 of 15 in Volume & money flow3 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns2 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on QSR went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2014. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −2.7%	Enter above C$101.67 (+0.2%)	26% 96/367	−0.3% / +9.2%	−41.5% / −60.0%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above C$104.04 (+2.6%)	21% 14/68	+0.8% / +10.6%	−40.2% / −60.0%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −2.7%	Enter above C$103.09 (+1.6%)	22% 46/205	+2.4% / +9.6%	−41.9% / −60.0%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −2.7%	Enter above C$114.02 (+12.4%)	22% 15/68	+3.5% / +10.1%	−17.0% / −60.0%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above C$104.02 (+2.5%)	16% 9/57	−1.0% / +8.7%	−33.2% / −60.0%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −4.1%	Enter above C$109.03 (+7.5%)	29% 11/38	+4.4% / +10.4%	−26.2% / −60.0%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Feb 27, 2026 +6.5%	Exit below C$100.80 (−0.6%)	15% 5/33	+2.0% / +10.5%	−31.1% / −60.0%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.3%	Exit below C$100.60 (−0.8%)	11% 14/123	+1.2% / +10.5%	−39.4% / −60.0%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Nov 7, 2025 +10.5%	Not on one close	32% 7/22	+4.6% / +10.5%	−28.8% / −60.0%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.3%	Exit below C$100.60 (−0.8%)	10% 7/72	+2.6% / +9.4%	−36.7% / −60.0%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above C$112.79 (+11.2%)	33% 27/82	+1.3% / +9.7%	−41.3% / −60.0%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −2.7%	Enter above C$102.03 (+0.6%)	25% 108/425	+1.0% / +9.5%	−39.0% / −60.0%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −3.2%	Enter above C$106.31 (+4.8%)	42% 48/115	+10.2% / +9.3%	−23.0% / −60.0%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Oct 10, 2025 +12.3%	Exit below C$41.16 (−59.4%)	19% 4/21	+3.0% / +11.0%	−38.3% / −60.0%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$123.23 (+21.5%)	26% 20/76	+0.8% / +10.3%	−36.0% / −60.0%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −0.1%	Not on one close	26% 20/76	+2.2% / +9.7%	−38.4% / −60.0%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −2.7%	Enter above C$105.48 (+4.0%)	31% 28/89	+2.8% / +9.9%	−36.8% / −60.0%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −2.7%	Not on one close	46% 85/183	+3.4% / +9.9%	−26.3% / −60.0%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −3.2%	Enter above C$100.53 (−0.9%)	38% 127/331	+6.0% / +10.0%	−29.0% / −60.0%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$109.74 (+8.2%)	32% 39/123	−0.1% / +9.6%	−38.2% / −60.0%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.3%	Exit below C$98.65 (−2.8%)	40% 107/270	+4.1% / +10.1%	−36.2% / −60.0%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Dec 17, 2025 +8.7%	Enter above C$218.75 (+115.6%)	28% 20/71	+0.3% / +9.6%	−34.2% / −60.0%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −2.4%	Enter above C$115.13 (+13.5%)	26% 26/99	+2.7% / +9.4%	−31.3% / −60.0%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 −0.6%	Enter above C$103.69 (+2.2%)	41% 32/79	+8.1% / +9.8%	−30.2% / −60.0%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −2.4%	Enter above C$162.68 (+60.4%)	32% 41/130	+2.9% / +9.4%	−30.6% / −60.0%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 −5.2%	Enter above C$101.76 (+0.3%)	41% 50/123	+4.7% / +9.3%	−38.9% / −60.0%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −2.4%	Enter above C$113.24 (+11.6%)	30% 24/80	+3.2% / +9.6%	−32.4% / −60.0%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +0.2%	Enter above C$127.37 (+25.6%)	21% 16/75	−1.3% / +9.6%	−42.1% / −60.0%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −4.1%	Not on one close	37% 38/102	+4.7% / +8.8%	−15.3% / −60.0%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jun 12, 2023 +12.8%	Not on one close	38% 10/26	+2.1% / +9.4%	−11.9% / −60.0%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −2.4%	Enter above C$108.29 (+6.8%)	38% 26/68	+3.3% / +9.9%	−40.7% / −60.0%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −3.9%	Enter above C$108.77 (+7.2%)	38% 24/64	+4.6% / +9.0%	−30.4% / −60.0%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −2.4%	Enter above C$112.10 (+10.5%)	33% 17/52	+1.2% / +9.0%	−35.4% / −60.0%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −3.2%	Enter above C$111.88 (+10.3%)	30% 14/46	+2.6% / +9.6%	−31.2% / −60.0%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −3.9%	Not on one close	29% 20/68	−1.0% / +9.9%	−44.5% / −60.0%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 −5.2%	Enter above C$106.44 (+4.9%)	29% 25/86	−2.2% / +9.5%	−32.5% / −60.0%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 −5.2%	Enter above C$103.51 (+2.0%)	31% 40/128	−0.7% / +9.6%	−34.9% / −60.0%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −3.2%	Enter above C$108.63 (+7.1%)	35% 36/102	+4.3% / +10.0%	−35.7% / −60.0%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −3.2%	Enter above C$104.48 (+3.0%)	35% 33/95	+4.0% / +9.9%	−41.0% / −60.0%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Feb 27, 2026 +6.5%	Exit below C$96.97 (−4.4%)	16% 6/38	−1.2% / +9.5%	−46.7% / −60.0%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −2.7%	Enter above C$103.98 (+2.5%)	29% 51/175	+5.5% / +9.6%	−34.3% / −60.0%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 −7.1%	Not on one close	24% 23/94	−0.9% / +9.9%	−17.0% / −60.0%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 −6.0%	Enter above C$112.98 (+11.4%)	34% 27/80	+1.9% / +9.5%	−29.2% / −60.0%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +2.2%	Enter above C$101.76 (+0.3%)	33% 127/380	+1.4% / +10.4%	−30.3% / −60.0%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	May 6, 2026 −1.7%	Not on one close	30% 9/30	+1.2% / +9.3%	−10.5% / −60.0%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +14.2%	Exit below C$92.18 (−9.1%)	25% 5/20	+3.9% / +10.1%	−32.4% / −60.0%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +11.2%	Not on one close	50% 13/26	+6.9% / +10.1%	−30.9% / −60.0%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 −5.3%	Exit below C$102.50 (+1.0%)	42% 5/12	+6.6% / +10.1%	−17.9% / −60.0%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −2.7%	Buy C$103.42–C$116.66 (+1.9%)	10% 10/101	−2.6% / +9.6%	−50.3% / −60.0%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	May 30, 2025 +9.4%	Exit below C$95.10 (−6.3%)	27% 3/11	+4.3% / +10.2%	−37.1% / −60.0%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 −6.0%	Enter above C$108.42 (+6.9%)	26% 16/62	+2.4% / +10.3%	−31.6% / −60.0%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.3%	Exit below C$97.45 (−3.9%)	31% 80/257	+1.8% / +9.4%	−39.2% / −60.0%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.3%	Exit below C$100.27 (−1.2%)	27% 117/439	−1.7% / +9.4%	−46.8% / −60.0%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −3.9%	Enter above C$102.42 (+1.0%)	43% 66/153	+8.6% / +8.6%	−33.4% / −60.0%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Oct 31, 2025 +14.1%	Not on one close	18% 2/11	+3.2% / +8.4%	−60.0% / −60.0%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 −5.3%	Enter above C$102.97 (+1.5%)	25% 86/340	−3.1% / +9.9%	−48.6% / −60.0%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −3.2%	Enter above C$112.70 (+11.1%)	50% 61/123	+12.9% / +9.6%	−20.6% / −60.0%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$115.96 (+14.3%)	29% 28/97	+2.6% / +9.6%	−31.3% / −60.0%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +0.2%	Enter above C$101.47 (+0.0%)	28% 13/47	+4.7% / +10.1%	−33.3% / −60.0%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Dec 31, 2025 +11.2%	Not on one close	50% 11/22	+5.2% / +6.5%	−30.9% / −60.0%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Mar 31, 2026 +0.3%	Not on one close	50% 8/16	+4.6% / +10.1%	−26.7% / −60.0%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −3.9%	Enter above C$102.15 (+0.7%)	36% 60/167	+8.1% / +9.3%	−35.1% / −60.0%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Mar 10, 2025 +8.8%	Not on one close	62% 10/16	+6.9% / +9.7%	−54.2% / −60.0%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +0.1%	Not on one close	56% 80/144	+2.6% / +10.5%	−15.5% / −60.0%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +0.3%	Not on one close	62% 126/202	+5.2% / +10.5%	−27.0% / −60.0%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Buy below C$98.39 (−3.0%)	61% 59/96	+3.7% / +9.6%	−51.6% / −60.0%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 −6.6%	Not on one close	62% 54/87	+5.1% / +9.6%	−52.7% / −60.0%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 −6.6%	Not on one close	59% 83/141	+3.5% / +10.0%	−55.2% / −60.0%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +0.1%	Not on one close	54% 19/35	+5.6% / +9.8%	−55.3% / −60.0%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2015 +191.9%	Sell above C$243.16 (+139.7%)	–	+10.5% / +10.5%	−60.0% / −60.0%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Apr 11, 2025 +22.6%	Buy below C$82.49 (−18.7%)	67% 4/6	+3.8% / +9.3%	−1.6% / −60.0%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 −7.5%	Not on one close	49% 84/173	+4.2% / +9.5%	−31.6% / −60.0%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 −7.5%	Exit below C$100.83 (−0.6%)	56% 121/217	+2.2% / +9.5%	−44.5% / −60.0%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +1.0%	Buy below C$101.44 (0.0%)	57% 583/1014	+1.7% / +11.1%	−41.4% / −60.0%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 −0.1%	Sell above C$102.37 (+0.9%)	55% 16/29	+2.8% / +10.5%	−15.1% / −60.0%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +1.5%	Exit below C$97.74 (−3.6%)	36% 206/567	−1.2% / +9.4%	−41.8% / −60.0%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +0.2%	Sell above C$103.31 (+1.8%)	59% 47/79	+9.9% / +9.6%	−31.1% / −60.0%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.3%	Not on one close	28% 102/358	+3.3% / +9.6%	−45.2% / −60.0%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 −3.2%	Not on one close	40% 41/102	+6.6% / +9.9%	−29.0% / −60.0%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Jun 30, 2026 −0.5%	Not on one close	64% 18/28	+7.8% / +9.7%	−53.9% / −60.0%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	OUT	May 27, 2026 −0.1%	Enter above C$112.73 (+11.1%)	34% 29/85	−1.7% / +9.8%	−46.9% / −60.0%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.3%	Exit below C$101.15 (−0.3%)	29% 106/365	+2.1% / +9.5%	−34.0% / −60.0%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 −3.9%	Enter above C$103.07 (+1.6%)	36% 70/195	+5.1% / +9.6%	−35.1% / −60.0%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 3, 2026 −7.5%	Enter above C$101.44 (+0.0%)	34% 94/278	+1.2% / +9.9%	−51.7% / −60.0%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +1.7%	Not on one close	34% 14/41	+4.8% / +9.7%	−32.1% / −60.0%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +0.2%	Not on one close	39% 173/449	+3.6% / +9.9%	−28.9% / −60.0%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +0.1%	Not on one close	49% 42/85	+4.9% / +10.0%	−21.6% / −60.0%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	IN	Feb 26, 2026 +9.0%	Exit below C$89.63 (−11.6%)	32% 17/53	+2.3% / +10.7%	−20.5% / −60.0%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jun 1, 2026 +2.5%	Not on one close	39% 18/46	+1.2% / +10.0%	−10.5% / −60.0%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −5.8%	Buys Oct 30	57% 13/23	+10.1% / +11.1%	−53.9% / −60.0%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +1.5%	Window opens Apr 1	52% 12/23	+8.7% / +9.4%	−56.7% / −60.0%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 −4.1%	Window opens Oct 16	46% 11/24	+8.0% / +9.4%	−53.9% / −60.0%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +13.3%	Buys Dec 23	25% 6/24	−0.3% / +11.1%	−14.4% / −60.0%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +1.7%	Buys Oct 29	46% 132/284	+0.4% / +11.1%	−44.0% / −60.0%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +0.2%	Sells Jun 30	67% 4/6	+8.0% / +11.1%	−20.9% / −60.0%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −7.7%	Buys Nov 24	50% 106/212	+4.2% / +11.1%	−7.6% / −60.0%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +31.6%	Not on one close	20% 2/10	+4.0% / +10.2%	−33.3% / −60.0%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	52% 640/1235	+6.8% / +11.1%	−43.0% / −60.0%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −2.4%	Buys Oct 27	49% 92/188	+1.1% / +11.1%	−9.3% / −60.0%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +1.7%	Sells Oct 16	49% 144/293	+7.0% / +11.1%	−40.4% / −60.0%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Dec 11, 2014	Always in	–	+10.7%	−60.0%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureModerate4 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes1/2
Debt3/3
Run-up0/2

It fell about 1.4× as far as its index in past crashes.
It carries 4.3× as much debt as equity.

Past crashes, peak to low

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Mar 2021

QSR−53%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jun 2022 · back to its old high Aug 2022

QSR−20%

TSX−14%

Beta0.38Moves about 0.4× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture3%In months the TSX fell, this fell 3% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+12%
From 52-week high−9%
Debt to equity4.31×
Net debt / EBITDA5.0×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover4.2×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Restaurants · Restaurant Brands International Inc. operates as a quick service restaurant company in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through six segments: Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, Firehouse Subs, International, and Restaurant Holdings.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$46.5B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$9.7B	Total sales.
P/E ratio	19.1×	Buyers pay C$19 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	16.3×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	5.8×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	13.1%	Keeps 13¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+6.5%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	+40.5%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	33.1%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$1.7B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$3.6B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$15.7B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$1.1B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	4.31×	Above about 1.5× is heavily borrowed; above 3× is fragile in a downturn.
Interest cover	4.2×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$117.08	15% above the close, from 4 analysts (range C$112.00 to C$123.32).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	3.58%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

QSR: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Consumer & retail: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

Another stock

Email me Test a theory