Mean reversion · daily rule · Consumer & retail
Bollinger Reversion on Restaurant Brands International
What the play says
QSR with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2015
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding QSR over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2015 | Hold, since 2015 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +3.7% | +9.6% | +3.1% | +9.8% |
| Total return | +53% | +192% | +17% | +59% |
| Worst drawdown | −51.6% | −60.0% | −11.1% | −20.8% |
| Volatility | 16.6% | 26.7% | 9.6% | 21.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.18 | 0.40 | −0.02 | 0.36 |
| Time invested | 22% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 8.1 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 59 of 96 closed calls (61%). In calls averaged +0.7%; out calls saw QSR move +2.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | QSR moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | OUT | C$101.44 | now | 0.0% | open |
| Sep 17, 2026 | IN | C$101.55 | Oct 13, 2026 | −0.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 27, 2026 | OUT | C$104.31 | Sep 17, 2026 | −2.6% | ✓ right |
| Jul 23, 2026 | IN | C$100.94 | Jul 27, 2026 | +3.3% | ✓ right |
| Jun 11, 2026 | OUT | C$101.34 | Jul 23, 2026 | −0.4% | ✓ right |
| Jun 2, 2026 | IN | C$97.26 | Jun 11, 2026 | +4.2% | ✓ right |
| Sep 11, 2025 | OUT | C$83.87 | Jun 2, 2026 | +16.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 7, 2025 | IN | C$85.50 | Sep 11, 2025 | −1.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 2, 2025 | OUT | C$88.66 | Aug 7, 2025 | −3.6% | ✓ right |
| Jun 11, 2025 | IN | C$87.43 | Jul 2, 2025 | +1.4% | ✓ right |
| Apr 30, 2025 | OUT | C$84.10 | Jun 11, 2025 | +4.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 4, 2025 | IN | C$85.69 | Apr 30, 2025 | −1.9% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 97 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.