NTR −3.2%, the S&P/TSX +1.5% that session.
- HeadlineQuiver Quantitative · Oct 9, 2:32 pm ET
- HeadlineMarketBeat · Oct 9, 3:00 am ET
- HeadlineMarketWatch · Oct 9, 4:33 pm ETafter that close
Industrials & materials
Nutrien (NTR)
Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.
Your signal
Hold48 / 100
Hold: 48 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−11% from its 1-year high) scores 63 and lifts it; Plays in (33%) scores 33 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | NTR | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 33% | 33 | 40 | 13.2 |
| Off the high | −11% from its 1-year high | 63 | 30 | 18.9 |
| Trend | +3% vs 200-day | 53 | 30 | 15.9 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for NTR
| Factor | NTR | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 33% | 33 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | +11% · 6 analysts | 44 | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | 2.3 · buy | 35 | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | 14.5× | 82 | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Forward P/E | 13.7× | 62 | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| PEG | 1.99 | 32 | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Price to sales | 1.2× | 83 | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Price to book | 1.3× | 89 | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Dividend yield | 3.2% | 75 | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Earnings growth | +1% | 30 | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Revenue growth | +4% | 20 | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Profit margin | 9% | 44 | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Return on equity | 9% | 39 | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Debt to equity | 0.49× | 52 | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance. |
| Off the high | −11% from its 1-year high | 63 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | +3% vs 200-day | 53 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +22% | 58 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 0/10 · low | 100 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on NTR- 33 of the 100 plays hold NTR right now.
- The trend-following, breakout and volume plays mostly say out.
- It closed 3% above its 200-day average and 11% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low.
- Analysts' average 12-month target is C$110.07, 11% above the close (6 analysts).
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in33 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.03×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+3%). Higher than on 51% of days since 2018. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about NTR now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn NTR: right 4 of 14 · Out since Apr 9, 2026Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn NTR: right 11 of 22 · In since Aug 20, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn NTR: right 4 of 10 · In since Jan 31, 2025Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn NTR: right 54 of 82 · Out since Aug 18, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn NTR: right 7 of 12 · Out since Sep 10, 2026Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn NTR: right 30 of 55 · In since Oct 2, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn NTR: right 10 of 17 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
NTR, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
What moved NTR lately
Its 2 biggest moves against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured
NTR +3.1%, the S&P/TSX −1.2% that session; +6.9% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.
No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on NTR was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for NTR starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −1.2%. The 52 other Industrials & materials stocks Be The Puck covers moved −2.2% on average, so most of the move was its own.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on NTR
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following6 of 30 inBreakouts & channels1 of 15 inMomentum8 of 17 inMean reversion10 of 15 inVolume & money flow2 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns2 of 3 inCalendar4 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on NTR went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2018. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −4.4% | Enter above C$101.41 (+2.3%) | 27% 71/265 | −0.5% / +8.5% | −50.8% / −54.2% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 +2.9% | Enter above C$98.19 (−1.0%) | 19% 10/54 | +0.0% / +9.0% | −56.0% / −54.2% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −2.2% | Enter above C$101.53 (+2.4%) | 21% 38/181 | −3.1% / +8.9% | −52.2% / −54.2% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −0.7% | Enter above C$101.28 (+2.1%) | 15% 9/60 | +5.2% / +10.4% | −26.5% / −54.2% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 +2.9% | Enter above C$114.92 (+15.9%) | 18% 6/33 | +3.3% / +7.7% | −42.7% / −54.2% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Oct 2, 2026 −0.8% | Enter above C$101.99 (+2.9%) | 28% 10/36 | +6.2% / +9.6% | −31.2% / −54.2% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2026 +3.3% | Exit below C$97.53 (−1.6%) | 36% 5/14 | +10.5% / +7.9% | −34.4% / −54.2% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | IN | Aug 10, 2026 +8.2% | Exit below C$96.40 (−2.8%) | 12% 8/68 | +3.8% / +8.0% | −51.9% / −54.2% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Jan 27, 2025 +39.8% | Not on one close | 25% 3/12 | +9.6% / +8.0% | −37.7% / −54.2% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Aug 10, 2026 +8.2% | Exit below C$96.40 (−2.8%) | 18% 6/34 | +6.5% / +8.3% | −43.3% / −54.2% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 +2.9% | Enter above C$114.00 (+15.0%) | 40% 25/63 | +2.5% / +8.9% | −47.5% / −54.2% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 −7.4% | Enter above C$100.66 (+1.5%) | 25% 82/323 | +1.8% / +9.2% | −42.4% / −54.2% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −4.4% | Enter above C$133.60 (+34.7%) | 28% 29/103 | +1.0% / +7.4% | −39.1% / −54.2% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | Jan 22, 2025 +39.5% | Not on one close | 30% 3/10 | +11.5% / +8.3% | −38.3% / −54.2% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 −0.1% | Enter above C$113.84 (+14.8%) | 28% 16/57 | +1.3% / +7.8% | −39.3% / −54.2% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 +2.9% | Not on one close | 23% 10/44 | +4.2% / +10.3% | −45.7% / −54.2% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −2.2% | Enter above C$106.90 (+7.8%) | 36% 26/73 | +2.7% / +8.9% | −39.8% / −54.2% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −2.2% | Not on one close | 34% 51/148 | −2.2% / +8.9% | −43.7% / −54.2% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | OUT | Sep 22, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above C$110.59 (+11.5%) | 34% 82/242 | +1.7% / +8.5% | −48.0% / −54.2% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 −0.1% | Enter above C$112.90 (+13.9%) | 31% 27/88 | +0.3% / +10.1% | −47.0% / −54.2% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 +2.9% | Enter above C$103.28 (+4.2%) | 39% 77/198 | +1.5% / +8.7% | −53.6% / −54.2% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −4.4% | Enter above C$138.47 (+39.6%) | 20% 11/54 | −7.1% / +10.7% | −50.5% / −54.2% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 −0.8% | Enter above C$115.21 (+16.2%) | 28% 21/76 | +4.2% / +9.7% | −48.7% / −54.2% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −2.2% | Enter above C$100.18 (+1.0%) | 37% 37/100 | +4.6% / +9.7% | −38.0% / −54.2% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 −0.1% | Enter above C$152.88 (+54.2%) | 30% 30/100 | +1.6% / +9.7% | −40.2% / −54.2% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −4.4% | Not on one close | 29% 32/109 | 0.0% / +7.4% | −46.4% / −54.2% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | OUT | Aug 10, 2026 +8.2% | Enter above C$112.32 (+13.3%) | 29% 19/66 | +1.0% / +8.9% | −44.3% / −54.2% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | IN | Jul 24, 2026 +3.9% | Exit below C$93.30 (−5.9%) | 24% 10/42 | +4.0% / +8.9% | −46.9% / −54.2% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −2.2% | Not on one close | 33% 26/78 | −1.2% / +7.7% | −28.9% / −54.2% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Apr 9, 2026 +0.1% | Not on one close | 29% 4/14 | +0.7% / +9.7% | −9.2% / −54.2% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 −0.1% | Enter above C$110.22 (+11.2%) | 44% 21/48 | +5.9% / +8.9% | −34.5% / −54.2% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −4.4% | Enter above C$110.22 (+11.2%) | 27% 16/60 | −0.9% / +9.7% | −33.0% / −54.2% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 −0.1% | Enter above C$112.90 (+13.9%) | 28% 11/40 | +0.3% / +9.7% | −38.0% / −54.2% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −2.2% | Enter above C$110.76 (+11.7%) | 38% 13/34 | +7.0% / +8.9% | −20.3% / −54.2% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −4.4% | Not on one close | 28% 11/40 | +0.1% / +8.9% | −37.5% / −54.2% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −4.4% | Enter above C$109.73 (+10.7%) | 30% 20/66 | +1.4% / +9.2% | −23.0% / −54.2% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −4.4% | Enter above C$110.02 (+11.0%) | 36% 29/80 | +0.9% / +8.7% | −31.8% / −54.2% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −4.4% | Enter above C$109.69 (+10.6%) | 32% 28/88 | −2.2% / +9.4% | −53.8% / −54.2% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −2.2% | Enter above C$105.61 (+6.5%) | 30% 26/86 | −3.3% / +8.9% | −56.2% / −54.2% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | Aug 20, 2026 −0.9% | Exit below C$95.07 (−4.1%) | 50% 11/22 | +12.7% / +8.4% | −33.7% / −54.2% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 −4.5% | Enter above C$104.81 (+5.7%) | 25% 40/158 | −1.6% / +10.4% | −39.1% / −54.2% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −8.4% | Not on one close | 22% 16/72 | +0.3% / +8.9% | −12.0% / −54.2% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Mar 17, 2026 −6.8% | Not on one close | 43% 18/42 | +3.2% / +9.2% | −20.1% / −54.2% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −4.4% | Enter above C$101.87 (+2.7%) | 33% 94/282 | −0.2% / +8.6% | −45.0% / −54.2% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Jun 23, 2025 +26.0% | Not on one close | 38% 6/16 | −0.2% / +8.1% | −13.2% / −54.2% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | IN | Apr 30, 2025 +32.6% | Exit below C$76.67 (−22.7%) | 30% 3/10 | +10.3% / +8.8% | −34.4% / −54.2% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | Jan 31, 2025 +40.7% | Not on one close | 40% 4/10 | +10.0% / +8.8% | −38.0% / −54.2% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2026 +3.3% | Exit below C$85.25 (−14.0%) | 50% 6/12 | +10.4% / +8.8% | −34.4% / −54.2% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below C$96.70 (−2.5%) | 29% 13/45 | +7.5% / +8.9% | −37.5% / −54.2% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | OUT | May 29, 2026 +6.8% | Enter above C$106.12 (+7.0%) | 50% 3/6 | +9.2% / +9.9% | −29.0% / −54.2% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −2.2% | Enter above C$100.15 (+1.0%) | 34% 14/41 | +4.6% / +8.0% | −36.6% / −54.2% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2026 −8.9% | Enter above C$107.54 (+8.4%) | 35% 63/182 | +1.6% / +9.7% | −47.7% / −54.2% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 −7.4% | Enter above C$100.49 (+1.3%) | 32% 96/298 | +1.0% / +9.7% | −49.5% / −54.2% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 −7.4% | Enter above C$141.67 (+42.9%) | 26% 37/143 | −8.0% / +9.2% | −58.2% / −54.2% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Feb 29, 2024 +55.7% | Not on one close | 100% 3/3 | +15.5% / +12.7% | −49.2% / −54.2% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −8.4% | Enter above C$111.04 (+12.0%) | 32% 70/218 | +4.9% / +8.9% | −16.8% / −54.2% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −4.4% | Enter above C$181.05 (+82.6%) | 31% 33/105 | −5.2% / +8.9% | −51.4% / −54.2% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 −0.1% | Enter above C$115.73 (+16.7%) | 30% 22/73 | +3.9% / +8.9% | −48.7% / −54.2% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2026 +3.3% | Exit below C$97.46 (−1.7%) | 27% 6/22 | +11.2% / +8.8% | −44.8% / −54.2% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | Jan 31, 2025 +40.7% | Not on one close | 50% 2/4 | +15.5% / +11.8% | −38.0% / −54.2% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | IN | May 30, 2025 +28.7% | Not on one close | 31% 4/13 | +7.6% / +8.8% | −37.5% / −54.2% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −4.4% | Enter above C$117.65 (+18.6%) | 29% 38/131 | −2.2% / +7.4% | −54.3% / −54.2% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Aug 24, 2026 −2.9% | Not on one close | 71% 10/14 | +5.6% / +8.6% | −48.9% / −54.2% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +2.9% | Sell above C$98.71 (−0.5%) | 63% 64/101 | +9.2% / +8.0% | −11.2% / −54.2% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +2.9% | Sell above C$101.35 (+2.2%) | 59% 70/119 | +11.8% / +8.0% | −19.7% / −54.2% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Aug 18, 2026 +3.7% | Buy below C$94.37 (−4.8%) | 66% 54/82 | +11.5% / +8.7% | −35.8% / −54.2% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 −0.8% | Not on one close | 67% 42/63 | +8.2% / +8.6% | −42.4% / −54.2% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 −5.9% | Not on one close | 66% 80/121 | +7.2% / +8.5% | −48.5% / −54.2% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | IN | Oct 1, 2026 −0.1% | Not on one close | 64% 25/39 | +9.9% / +8.7% | −41.5% / −54.2% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Oct 17, 2018 +82.1% | Sell above C$233.00 (+135.0%) | – | +8.0% / +8.0% | −54.2% / −54.2% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Jun 22, 2021 +58.0% | Not on one close | 50% 2/4 | +2.0% / +7.4% | −17.7% / −54.2% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Not on one close | 58% 85/147 | +15.9% / +9.2% | −39.1% / −54.2% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Sep 15, 2026 −8.9% | Not on one close | 61% 106/173 | +10.2% / +9.2% | −43.4% / −54.2% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Buy below C$99.16 (0.0%) | 55% 447/808 | −2.6% / +7.9% | −41.4% / −54.2% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | IN | Sep 29, 2026 −1.8% | Sell above C$106.53 (+7.4%) | 65% 15/23 | +7.4% / +8.0% | −23.3% / −54.2% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 +2.9% | Enter above C$99.31 (+0.2%) | 40% 163/406 | +8.7% / +9.7% | −61.5% / −54.2% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | Sep 30, 2026 −0.8% | Sell above C$101.95 (+2.8%) | 55% 27/49 | +2.2% / +9.2% | −40.5% / −54.2% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 −4.5% | Not on one close | 26% 87/332 | −2.2% / +8.7% | −51.0% / −54.2% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 −2.0% | Not on one close | 37% 28/76 | +2.3% / +8.9% | −41.8% / −54.2% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −8.4% | Not on one close | 58% 7/12 | +5.7% / +8.6% | −48.9% / −54.2% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Jan 3, 2025 +56.0% | Not on one close | 36% 12/33 | +3.0% / +9.4% | −51.8% / −54.2% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 −7.4% | Enter above C$99.74 (+0.6%) | 28% 89/316 | −2.0% / +10.5% | −54.6% / −54.2% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | OUT | Sep 22, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above C$115.76 (+16.7%) | 36% 52/144 | +3.2% / +8.7% | −53.3% / −54.2% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 +2.9% | Enter above C$99.16 (0.0%) | 40% 93/234 | +3.2% / +8.9% | −41.2% / −54.2% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −8.2% | Not on one close | 28% 21/74 | +0.6% / +9.3% | −55.1% / −54.2% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Sell C$97.00–C$98.22 (−0.9%) | 37% 143/386 | +3.4% / +8.4% | −54.0% / −54.2% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 −0.8% | Not on one close | 55% 30/55 | +10.5% / +8.4% | −28.2% / −54.2% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −6.6% | Not on one close | 29% 12/42 | −1.5% / +8.4% | −48.2% / −54.2% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below C$95.79 (−3.4%) | 48% 12/25 | +2.6% / +9.2% | −8.2% / −54.2% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 −2.3% | Buys Oct 30 | 59% 10/17 | +8.9% / +7.9% | −46.7% / −54.2% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 8, 2026 −2.8% | Enter above C$100.58 (+1.4%) | 50% 8/16 | +6.8% / +9.7% | −47.2% / −54.2% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | Apr 20, 2026 +3.8% | Window opens Oct 16 | 61% 11/18 | +8.6% / +9.7% | −45.6% / −54.2% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 +18.8% | Buys Dec 23 | 50% 8/16 | +3.0% / +7.9% | −9.0% / −54.2% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 −0.9% | Buys Oct 29 | 46% 97/210 | +3.8% / +7.9% | −41.2% / −54.2% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 −0.8% | Sells Jun 30 | 0% 0/5 | −2.6% / +7.9% | −39.2% / −54.2% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −9.2% | Buys Nov 24 | 56% 89/160 | +2.7% / +7.9% | −9.8% / −54.2% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +15.4% | Not on one close | 17% 1/6 | +0.7% / +9.9% | −48.8% / −54.2% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Sells Oct 16 | 49% 452/915 | +1.9% / +7.9% | −52.9% / −54.2% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −8.0% | Buys Oct 27 | 50% 69/138 | +1.1% / +7.9% | −9.5% / −54.2% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 −0.8% | Sells Oct 16 | 54% 117/217 | +10.2% / +7.9% | −40.0% / −54.2% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 2, 2018 | Always in | – | +8.0% | −54.2% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureLow0 of 10 points
- Market swings0/3
- Past crashes0/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
Nothing on the checklist stands out.
- Beta0.62Moves about 0.6× as much as the TSX week to week.
- Downside capture44%In months the TSX fell, this fell 44% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
- Two-year change+58%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
- From 52-week high−11%
- Debt to equity0.50×
- Net debt / EBITDA2.1×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
- Interest cover5.2×
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
The business behind the price
How to judge these numbersAgricultural Inputs · Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate. The Retail segment markets crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed, and merchandise, as well as provides agronomic application and financing services and solutions; and produces proprietary products, including proprietary crop nutrient, crop protection, and seed products. The Potash segment includes mining and processing of potash.
| Size and valuation | ||
| Market cap | C$47.3B | What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding. |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $27.3B | Total sales. |
| P/E ratio | 14.5× | Buyers pay C$15 for each C$1 of the last year's profit. |
| Forward P/E | 13.7× | Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. |
| Price to book | 1.3× | Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share. |
| Profit and growth | ||
| Profit margin | 8.7% | Keeps 9¢ of each dollar of sales as profit. |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | +4.0% | Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier. |
| Earnings growth | +1.2% | Same comparison for profit. |
| Return on equity | 9.4% | Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business. |
| Free cash flow | $1.6B | Cash left after running and investing in the business. |
| Balance sheet | ||
| Total equity | $25.3B | What it owns minus what it owes. |
|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $12.7B | Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest. |
| Cash | $921M | Cash and short-term investments on hand. |
| Debt to equity | 0.50× | Moderate. |
| Interest cover | 5.2× | Interest is easily paid from profit. |
| Wall Street | ||
| Average analyst target | C$110.07 | 11% above the close, from 6 analysts (range C$99.22 to C$114.17). |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus rating | Buy | Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare. |
| Dividend yield | 3.25% | Yearly dividends as a share of the price. |
Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.
Read more
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