Volume & money flow · daily rule · Industrials & materials
Money Flow Index on Nutrien
NTR with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2018
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding NTR over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2018 | Hold, since 2018 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.7% | +8.6% | +4.3% | +6.0% |
| Total return | +62% | +104% | +23% | +34% |
| Worst drawdown | −48.9% | −54.2% | −24.7% | −54.2% |
| Volatility | 20.0% | 31.8% | 14.4% | 32.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.24 | 0.33 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Time invested | 36% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.4 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 7 of 12 closed calls (58%). In calls averaged +6.3%; out calls saw NTR move +10.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | NTR moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | OUT | C$108.26 | now | −8.4% | open |
| Jun 11, 2026 | IN | C$90.12 | Sep 10, 2026 | +20.1% | ✓ right |
| Dec 10, 2024 | OUT | C$63.88 | Jun 11, 2026 | +41.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 8, 2023 | IN | C$65.38 | Dec 10, 2024 | −2.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 22, 2023 | OUT | C$68.70 | Nov 8, 2023 | −4.8% | ✓ right |
| May 15, 2023 | IN | C$73.37 | Jun 22, 2023 | −6.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 3, 2020 | OUT | C$51.83 | May 15, 2023 | +41.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 16, 2019 | IN | C$51.38 | Dec 3, 2020 | +0.9% | ✓ right |
| Jun 25, 2019 | OUT | C$54.48 | Jul 16, 2019 | −5.7% | ✓ right |
| May 29, 2019 | IN | C$50.19 | Jun 25, 2019 | +8.5% | ✓ right |
| May 17, 2018 | OUT | C$48.89 | May 29, 2019 | +2.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 20, 2018 | IN | C$41.80 | May 17, 2018 | +17.0% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 13 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.