Indexes & ETFs
Gold ETF (GLD)
Your signal
Sell25 / 100
Sell: 25 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Plays in (27%) scores 27 and lifts it; Off the high (−23% from its 1-year high) scores 23 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | GLD | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 27% | 27 | 40 | 10.8 |
| Off the high | −23% from its 1-year high | 23 | 30 | 6.9 |
| Trend | −8% vs 200-day | 24 | 30 | 7.2 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for GLD
| Factor | GLD | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 27% | 27 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −23% from its 1-year high | 23 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | −8% vs 200-day | 24 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +1% | 35 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 0/10 · low | 100 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on GLD- 27 of the 100 plays hold GLD right now.
- The trend-following and breakout plays mostly say out.
- It closed 8% below its 200-day average and 23% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in27 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple0.92×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−8%). Higher than on 6% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about GLD now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn GLD: right 8 of 38 · Out since Mar 20, 2026Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn GLD: right 11 of 26 · In since Aug 11, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn GLD: right 14 of 30 · In since Apr 28, 2023Mean reversionBollinger ReversionIN64% of 53,095 calls rightOn GLD: right 112 of 185 · In since Sep 28, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn GLD: right 20 of 30 · Out since Aug 18, 2026Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn GLD: right 33 of 69 · In since Jul 17, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn GLD: right 26 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
GLD, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on GLD
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following2 of 30 inBreakouts & channels1 of 15 inMomentum7 of 17 inMean reversion7 of 15 inVolume & money flow3 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns2 of 3 inCalendar5 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on GLD went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −4.2% | Enter above $386.54 (+1.3%) | 26% 162/616 | +4.4% / +10.6% | −28.0% / −45.6% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $397.31 (+4.1%) | 28% 32/115 | +7.6% / +10.7% | −40.9% / −45.6% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −2.9% | Enter above $391.43 (+2.6%) | 22% 83/370 | +7.3% / +10.8% | −40.6% / −45.6% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | Mar 18, 2026 −14.2% | Not on one close | 17% 17/103 | +4.8% / +9.8% | −26.3% / −45.6% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | May 15, 2026 −8.5% | Enter above $673.35 (+76.4%) | 24% 15/62 | +8.8% / +11.0% | −37.2% / −45.6% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | May 15, 2026 −8.5% | Enter above $450.31 (+18.0%) | 40% 33/83 | +7.6% / +10.6% | −22.8% / −45.6% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | OUT | Jun 30, 2026 +3.6% | Enter above $414.33 (+8.6%) | 27% 10/37 | +8.1% / +10.8% | −42.6% / −45.6% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −6.7% | Enter above $415.34 (+8.8%) | 16% 25/161 | +8.2% / +10.8% | −35.0% / −45.6% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | OUT | Jun 30, 2026 +3.6% | Not on one close | 30% 8/27 | +8.8% / +10.8% | −35.1% / −45.6% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −6.7% | Enter above $569.76 (+49.3%) | 18% 17/97 | +8.1% / +10.6% | −34.5% / −45.6% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $436.54 (+14.4%) | 36% 48/133 | +6.2% / +10.8% | −34.2% / −45.6% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −6.7% | Enter above $389.89 (+2.2%) | 25% 188/742 | +4.9% / +10.7% | −40.6% / −45.6% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 −4.5% | Enter above $434.43 (+13.8%) | 40% 100/249 | +6.7% / +10.7% | −26.2% / −45.6% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | Aug 5, 2026 −2.0% | Exit below $289.72 (−24.1%) | 23% 6/26 | +7.7% / +9.7% | −41.3% / −45.6% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2026 −3.2% | Enter above $469.01 (+22.9%) | 30% 38/128 | +7.7% / +10.9% | −27.5% / −45.6% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +1.0% | Not on one close | 31% 34/109 | +7.0% / +10.5% | −38.3% / −45.6% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −3.8% | Enter above $395.27 (+3.6%) | 41% 82/202 | +5.8% / +10.6% | −23.5% / −45.6% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −4.3% | Not on one close | 41% 130/316 | +5.3% / +10.6% | −27.5% / −45.6% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −6.2% | Enter above $386.03 (+1.1%) | 38% 241/639 | +5.6% / +10.6% | −31.9% / −45.6% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −2.8% | Enter above $406.56 (+6.5%) | 37% 83/222 | +5.9% / +10.6% | −30.7% / −45.6% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.8% | Exit below $374.88 (−1.8%) | 39% 175/446 | +7.7% / +10.6% | −27.0% / −45.6% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −3.8% | Not on one close | 35% 51/144 | +2.7% / +10.6% | −29.3% / −45.6% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2026 −3.2% | Enter above $438.81 (+15.0%) | 34% 61/180 | +8.2% / +10.7% | −38.8% / −45.6% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −4.3% | Enter above $395.35 (+3.6%) | 42% 59/140 | +4.9% / +10.6% | −38.7% / −45.6% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −2.8% | Enter above $410.59 (+7.6%) | 30% 75/248 | +6.3% / +10.7% | −29.5% / −45.6% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −3.8% | Not on one close | 36% 90/253 | +3.4% / +10.7% | −39.6% / −45.6% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2026 −3.2% | Enter above $431.30 (+13.0%) | 34% 39/114 | +6.3% / +10.8% | −40.5% / −45.6% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +1.0% | Enter above $475.85 (+24.7%) | 32% 32/100 | +6.9% / +10.8% | −33.6% / −45.6% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 −4.3% | Not on one close | 43% 100/234 | +7.0% / +11.0% | −18.3% / −45.6% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Mar 20, 2026 −7.7% | Not on one close | 21% 8/38 | +0.2% / +10.7% | −16.8% / −45.6% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −3.7% | Enter above $403.15 (+5.6%) | 37% 52/142 | +5.3% / +10.6% | −29.2% / −45.6% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −3.8% | Enter above $411.90 (+7.9%) | 33% 50/152 | +4.7% / +10.8% | −17.3% / −45.6% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −3.8% | Enter above $429.42 (+12.5%) | 35% 35/100 | +5.4% / +10.8% | −25.6% / −45.6% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Jan 30, 2026 −14.2% | Enter above $619.30 (+62.3%) | 34% 38/112 | +4.7% / +10.8% | −23.0% / −45.6% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −3.7% | Enter above $385.22 (+0.9%) | 39% 48/122 | +5.6% / +10.6% | −32.9% / −45.6% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −3.8% | Enter above $402.01 (+5.3%) | 35% 65/186 | +3.6% / +10.7% | −23.3% / −45.6% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −3.8% | Enter above $405.37 (+6.2%) | 37% 74/198 | +4.8% / +10.6% | −23.1% / −45.6% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −3.8% | Enter above $401.17 (+5.1%) | 38% 83/216 | +4.9% / +10.6% | −28.2% / −45.6% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −3.8% | Enter above $391.78 (+2.6%) | 39% 88/226 | +6.1% / +10.6% | −28.4% / −45.6% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | Aug 11, 2026 −4.8% | Exit below $358.30 (−6.1%) | 42% 11/26 | +8.3% / +10.7% | −31.2% / −45.6% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −6.2% | Enter above $389.67 (+2.1%) | 27% 104/386 | +6.3% / +10.6% | −30.9% / −45.6% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −6.7% | Not on one close | 32% 99/310 | +2.6% / +10.6% | −28.1% / −45.6% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Aug 27, 2026 −9.7% | Not on one close | 44% 41/94 | +3.4% / +10.7% | −8.2% / −45.6% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.1% | Enter above $382.74 (+0.3%) | 35% 259/730 | +6.4% / +10.6% | −20.1% / −45.6% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −3.8% | Not on one close | 24% 9/38 | +1.3% / +10.7% | −13.2% / −45.6% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | IN | Feb 29, 2024 +101.6% | Exit below $381.71 (+0.0%) | 37% 14/38 | +8.3% / +10.2% | −33.3% / −45.6% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +106.5% | Not on one close | 47% 14/30 | +9.6% / +10.2% | −29.4% / −45.6% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +0.2% | Enter above $424.43 (+11.2%) | 38% 14/37 | +6.8% / +10.2% | −33.3% / −45.6% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −2.9% | Buy $390.64–$438.92 (+2.4%) | 21% 28/134 | +6.7% / +10.8% | −38.8% / −45.6% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | OUT | May 29, 2026 −8.5% | Enter above $471.11 (+23.4%) | 40% 6/15 | +8.5% / +10.7% | −44.0% / −45.6% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | OUT | Apr 24, 2026 −11.9% | Enter above $415.67 (+8.9%) | 38% 45/118 | +6.7% / +10.9% | −25.4% / −45.6% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $378.45 (−0.8%) | 38% 164/434 | +8.2% / +10.7% | −22.3% / −45.6% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.8% | Exit below $378.79 (−0.8%) | 34% 233/690 | +7.9% / +10.7% | −29.8% / −45.6% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | OUT | Sep 2, 2026 −5.2% | Enter above $406.97 (+6.6%) | 43% 131/303 | +7.8% / +10.8% | −25.0% / −45.6% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Mar 31, 2023 +108.3% | Not on one close | 35% 6/17 | +4.7% / +9.4% | −26.4% / −45.6% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Aug 27, 2026 −9.7% | Enter above $406.95 (+6.6%) | 31% 187/606 | +3.6% / +10.6% | −27.3% / −45.6% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −6.2% | Enter above $464.83 (+21.8%) | 42% 108/258 | +6.8% / +10.8% | −28.8% / −45.6% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −2.6% | Enter above $441.73 (+15.7%) | 35% 60/172 | +8.3% / +10.8% | −37.8% / −45.6% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +0.2% | Enter above $382.20 (+0.1%) | 35% 32/91 | +6.3% / +10.2% | −48.5% / −45.6% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +106.5% | Not on one close | 43% 12/28 | +6.1% / +8.8% | −28.2% / −45.6% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | IN | Jun 30, 2023 +114.1% | Not on one close | 37% 11/30 | +8.6% / +10.2% | −30.7% / −45.6% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 2, 2026 −5.2% | Enter above $398.78 (+4.5%) | 38% 119/317 | +7.6% / +10.7% | −32.2% / −45.6% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Aug 26, 2026 −9.4% | Not on one close | 72% 26/36 | +4.5% / +10.6% | −29.2% / −45.6% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | May 29, 2026 −8.5% | Not on one close | 62% 173/280 | +3.4% / +10.8% | −14.5% / −45.6% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Jun 16, 2026 −4.0% | Not on one close | 63% 229/362 | +4.6% / +10.8% | −27.6% / −45.6% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | IN | Sep 28, 2026 +1.0% | Sell above $386.59 (+1.3%) | 61% 112/185 | +4.8% / +10.6% | −19.6% / −45.6% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | IN | Sep 16, 2026 −2.6% | Not on one close | 55% 93/168 | +3.2% / +10.6% | −36.7% / −45.6% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | IN | Sep 3, 2026 −7.0% | Not on one close | 57% 173/303 | +4.2% / +10.6% | −35.2% / −45.6% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | OUT | Aug 13, 2026 −4.3% | Not on one close | 60% 49/82 | +4.0% / +10.6% | −25.8% / −45.6% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Sep 2, 2005 +762.5% | Sell above $1,003.88 (+163.0%) | – | +10.8% / +10.8% | −45.6% / −45.6% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Aug 13, 2020 +108.2% | Buy below $229.67 (−39.8%) | 40% 4/10 | +2.1% / +10.7% | −4.8% / −45.6% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 −4.9% | Not on one close | 47% 155/327 | +6.1% / +10.7% | −29.5% / −45.6% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Not on one close | 56% 228/410 | +5.7% / +10.7% | −32.9% / −45.6% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 1, 2026 −0.3% | Buy below $381.67 (0.0%) | 54% 853/1582 | +0.3% / +10.6% | −44.6% / −45.6% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Jul 22, 2026 +0.7% | Not on one close | 62% 53/86 | +4.6% / +10.8% | −18.9% / −45.6% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.8% | Exit below $373.99 (−2.0%) | 37% 401/1080 | +5.4% / +10.7% | −35.2% / −45.6% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +0.2% | Sell above $388.52 (+1.8%) | 51% 66/130 | +4.3% / +10.6% | −40.6% / −45.6% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.1% | Enter above $381.67 (+0.0%) | 25% 192/758 | +2.8% / +10.6% | −33.6% / −45.6% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −2.6% | Not on one close | 44% 83/189 | +6.1% / +10.6% | −43.8% / −45.6% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | OUT | Aug 18, 2026 −4.2% | Not on one close | 67% 20/30 | +5.0% / +10.6% | −22.1% / −45.6% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2025 +10.6% | Not on one close | 34% 34/100 | +6.3% / +10.3% | −43.7% / −45.6% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −6.7% | Enter above $384.76 (+0.8%) | 30% 195/649 | +7.3% / +10.6% | −25.5% / −45.6% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | OUT | Sep 2, 2026 −5.2% | Enter above $408.36 (+7.0%) | 37% 133/360 | +6.8% / +10.6% | −22.7% / −45.6% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $381.67 (0.0%) | 42% 249/592 | +7.0% / +10.6% | −43.5% / −45.6% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | IN | Sep 25, 2026 −3.0% | Not on one close | 35% 26/74 | +8.3% / +10.3% | −34.7% / −45.6% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $382.04 (+0.1%) | 33% 311/942 | +5.1% / +10.7% | −25.1% / −45.6% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | IN | Jul 17, 2026 +3.6% | Not on one close | 48% 33/69 | +4.3% / +10.6% | −36.0% / −45.6% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Apr 21, 2026 −11.2% | Not on one close | 37% 42/114 | +4.2% / +10.6% | −24.4% / −45.6% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $374.23 (−1.9%) | 42% 33/79 | +1.4% / +10.6% | −11.1% / −45.6% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 −9.9% | Buys Oct 30 | 60% 26/43 | +9.3% / +10.6% | −28.9% / −45.6% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.8% | Window opens Apr 1 | 58% 25/43 | +9.4% / +10.7% | −29.1% / −45.6% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | Apr 28, 2026 −9.5% | Window opens Oct 16 | 58% 25/43 | +8.9% / +10.7% | −39.0% / −45.6% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 −6.6% | Buys Dec 23 | 61% 27/44 | +3.8% / +10.6% | −6.5% / −45.6% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +0.6% | Buys Oct 29 | 50% 265/526 | +3.6% / +10.6% | −31.2% / −45.6% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +0.2% | Sells Jun 30 | 45% 5/11 | +3.6% / +10.6% | −12.0% / −45.6% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −6.2% | Buys Nov 24 | 50% 201/400 | +2.3% / +10.6% | −5.9% / −45.6% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +125.0% | Not on one close | 45% 9/20 | +8.2% / +10.6% | −37.8% / −45.6% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.1% | Sells Oct 16 | 52% 1177/2284 | +4.7% / +10.6% | −49.3% / −45.6% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −2.6% | Buys Oct 27 | 49% 171/348 | +2.0% / +10.6% | −7.6% / −45.6% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +0.4% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 270/541 | +5.5% / +10.6% | −37.6% / −45.6% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 3, 2005 | Always in | – | +10.6% | −45.6% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureLow0 of 10 points
- Market swings0/3
- Past crashes0/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
Nothing on the checklist stands out.
- Beta0.18Moves about 0.2× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture−21%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell -21% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
- Two-year change+55%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
- From 52-week high−23%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.