Real estate

First Capital REIT (FCR.UN)

C$23.09 +0.5% on the day·+24.3% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy74 / 100

Buy: 74 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−1% from its 1-year high) scores 97 and lifts it; Trend (+7% vs 200-day) scores 63 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	FCR.UN	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	65%	65	40	26.0
Off the high	−1% from its 1-year high	97	30	29.1
Trend	+7% vs 200-day	63	30	18.9

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for FCR.UN

Factor	FCR.UN	Points	What it is
Plays in	65%	65	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+6% · 8 analysts	36	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	–	–	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	4.8×	98	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	17.1×	45	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	1.78	38	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	6.6×	25	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	1.0×	92	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	4.0%	81	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	−63%	8	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+10%	38	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	140%	100	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	23%	74	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.84×	35	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−1% from its 1-year high	97	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+7% vs 200-day	63	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+24%	61	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	3/10 · moderate	70	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on FCR.UN

65 of the 100 plays hold FCR.UN right now.
The trend-following, momentum and volume plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion plays mostly say out.
It closed 7% above its 200-day average and 1% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads moderate: it fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes and operating profit covers interest only 2.9×.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$24.36, 6% above the close (8 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in65 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureModerate3 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.07×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+7%). Higher than on 59% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about FCR.UN now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn FCR.UN: right 22 of 50 · Out since Aug 6, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn FCR.UN: right 14 of 28 · In since May 1, 2025 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn FCR.UN: right 10 of 24 · In since Mar 28, 2024 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn FCR.UN: right 118 of 170 · Out since Sep 22, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn FCR.UN: right 31 of 52 · Out since Oct 9, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn FCR.UN: right 78 of 152 · In since Dec 29, 2025 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn FCR.UN: right 24 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

FCR.UN, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved FCR.UN lately

Its 3 biggest moves against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Fri Oct 9−1.7% against the S&P/TSX2.2× a normal day

FCR.UN −0.2%, the S&P/TSX +1.5% that session.

Headlinekalkine.ca · Oct 9, 11:01 am ET
Pason Systems (TSX:PSI) Debt-Free Balance Sheet Meets Heavy Investment Year: What It Means for the Dividend
Headlinekalkine.ca · Oct 9, 11:01 am ET
Dexterra Group (TSX:DXT) Cash Flow Surge Puts Spotlight on Dividend Strength

Wed Oct 7+2.1% against the S&P/TSX2.8× a normal day

FCR.UN +0.3%, the S&P/TSX −1.7% that session.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on FCR.UN was found for this session. The S&P/TSX moved −1.7%. The 18 other Real estate stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.5% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Wed Sep 23+2.4% against the S&P/TSX3.8× a normal day

FCR.UN +0.8%, the S&P/TSX −1.6% that session; +3.3% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on FCR.UN was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for FCR.UN starts Oct 5, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −1.6%. The 18 other Real estate stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.5% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on FCR.UN

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following25 of 30 in Breakouts & channels10 of 15 in Momentum15 of 17 in Mean reversion3 of 15 in Volume & money flow7 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on FCR.UN went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +2.4%	Exit below C$22.79 (−1.3%)	21% 148/710	−1.0% / +8.3%	−53.1% / −49.8%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Jan 9, 2026 +22.8%	Exit below C$22.51 (−2.5%)	31% 29/94	+6.0% / +8.3%	−42.2% / −49.8%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below C$22.71 (−1.7%)	17% 67/388	+2.3% / +8.3%	−44.5% / −49.8%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Jul 15, 2026 +1.2%	Enter above C$23.10 (+0.0%)	16% 20/123	+2.0% / +8.3%	−26.8% / −49.8%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	May 30, 2025 +37.9%	Exit below C$22.62 (−2.1%)	30% 21/70	+6.7% / +8.3%	−27.4% / −49.8%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +0.5%	Enter above C$23.10 (+0.0%)	33% 33/99	+4.5% / +8.3%	−26.1% / −49.8%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Apr 30, 2025 +43.9%	Exit below C$21.95 (−4.9%)	32% 11/34	+8.4% / +8.3%	−29.2% / −49.8%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Apr 29, 2025 +46.7%	Exit below C$21.70 (−6.0%)	11% 19/170	+6.2% / +8.3%	−36.6% / −49.8%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Jun 17, 2025 +40.1%	Not on one close	46% 11/24	+9.0% / +8.3%	−22.3% / −49.8%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Apr 29, 2025 +46.7%	Exit below C$21.70 (−6.0%)	12% 15/122	+6.3% / +8.3%	−32.7% / −49.8%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below C$22.18 (−4.0%)	34% 50/146	+3.4% / +8.3%	−51.5% / −49.8%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +1.7%	Exit below C$22.93 (−0.7%)	22% 175/796	+0.7% / +8.3%	−47.2% / −49.8%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Aug 17, 2026 +2.0%	Exit below C$20.94 (−9.3%)	29% 79/270	+1.3% / +8.3%	−48.2% / −49.8%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Dec 27, 2023 +73.6%	Not on one close	33% 8/24	+5.9% / +7.7%	−38.4% / −49.8%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +1.1%	Exit below C$21.99 (−4.7%)	28% 40/142	+4.1% / +8.3%	−52.4% / −49.8%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below C$22.64 (−2.0%)	30% 36/122	+5.3% / +8.3%	−48.5% / −49.8%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below C$22.57 (−2.2%)	35% 46/130	+2.7% / +8.3%	−47.2% / −49.8%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +0.9%	Not on one close	36% 123/340	+2.2% / +8.3%	−52.5% / −49.8%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +1.7%	Exit below C$22.16 (−4.0%)	34% 203/598	+3.9% / +8.3%	−39.2% / −49.8%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below C$22.30 (−3.4%)	38% 86/226	+4.1% / +8.3%	−49.5% / −49.8%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +2.4%	Exit below C$22.87 (−0.9%)	36% 182/500	+3.3% / +8.3%	−38.0% / −49.8%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$22.63 (−2.0%)	34% 53/156	+2.7% / +8.3%	−26.8% / −49.8%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +1.5%	Exit below C$21.56 (−6.6%)	23% 50/214	+1.5% / +8.3%	−51.8% / −49.8%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Apr 10, 2026 +9.4%	Exit below C$22.26 (−3.6%)	33% 44/132	+3.4% / +8.3%	−43.9% / −49.8%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +1.4%	Exit below C$21.89 (−5.2%)	30% 76/256	+2.2% / +8.3%	−48.6% / −49.8%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +1.6%	Not on one close	33% 77/232	+1.3% / +8.3%	−61.4% / −49.8%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Jun 23, 2026 +2.6%	Not on one close	27% 41/151	+1.4% / +8.3%	−48.0% / −49.8%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +1.1%	Exit below C$21.29 (−7.8%)	28% 27/96	+5.5% / +8.3%	−45.5% / −49.8%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Mar 13, 2026 +13.7%	Not on one close	28% 52/186	+0.5% / +8.3%	−43.0% / −49.8%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Aug 6, 2025 +28.3%	Not on one close	44% 22/50	+2.2% / +8.3%	−5.9% / −49.8%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Jul 7, 2026 −0.8%	Exit below C$22.30 (−3.4%)	35% 38/110	+4.3% / +8.3%	−39.5% / −49.8%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below C$22.69 (−1.7%)	34% 43/126	+3.2% / +8.3%	−35.0% / −49.8%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below C$22.62 (−2.0%)	40% 32/80	+5.9% / +8.3%	−25.4% / −49.8%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +1.1%	Exit below C$22.52 (−2.5%)	39% 34/88	+4.0% / +8.3%	−32.5% / −49.8%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Aug 11, 2026 +2.3%	Not on one close	33% 31/95	+2.0% / +8.3%	−42.9% / −49.8%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Jun 2, 2026 +0.8%	Enter above C$23.13 (+0.2%)	34% 36/107	+3.0% / +8.3%	−19.1% / −49.8%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	May 13, 2026 +1.5%	Enter above C$23.24 (+0.6%)	30% 65/219	+2.0% / +8.3%	−35.3% / −49.8%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Apr 8, 2026 +11.0%	Exit below C$22.62 (−2.0%)	36% 61/168	+3.2% / +8.3%	−50.9% / −49.8%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below C$22.61 (−2.1%)	37% 57/156	+1.9% / +8.3%	−45.6% / −49.8%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	May 1, 2025 +42.4%	Exit below C$19.50 (−15.6%)	50% 14/28	+8.3% / +8.3%	−36.0% / −49.8%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +1.5%	Exit below C$22.71 (−1.6%)	27% 74/272	+2.3% / +8.3%	−39.3% / −49.8%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	May 6, 2026 −0.2%	Not on one close	25% 31/125	+0.9% / +8.3%	−13.3% / −49.8%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +1.1%	Exit below C$20.20 (−12.5%)	38% 62/164	+2.6% / +8.3%	−13.1% / −49.8%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below C$22.80 (−1.3%)	30% 195/654	+1.5% / +8.3%	−39.1% / −49.8%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2025 +34.2%	Not on one close	33% 14/42	+3.1% / +8.3%	−5.3% / −49.8%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Jun 28, 2024 +74.5%	Exit below C$18.76 (−18.7%)	33% 8/24	+7.8% / +8.1%	−20.6% / −49.8%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Mar 28, 2024 +65.7%	Not on one close	42% 10/24	+4.8% / +8.1%	−51.8% / −49.8%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +19.9%	Exit below C$20.87 (−9.6%)	32% 11/34	+6.6% / +8.1%	−15.7% / −49.8%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Aug 20, 2026 +2.0%	Not on one close	21% 32/151	+5.0% / +8.3%	−23.6% / −49.8%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Mar 28, 2024 +65.7%	Exit below C$19.79 (−14.3%)	20% 2/10	+5.4% / +8.3%	−50.6% / −49.8%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Jul 17, 2026 +1.7%	Enter above C$23.77 (+3.0%)	40% 49/123	+5.8% / +8.3%	−21.3% / −49.8%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below C$22.44 (−2.8%)	29% 135/462	+3.2% / +8.3%	−29.4% / −49.8%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +2.4%	Exit below C$22.86 (−1.0%)	27% 220/822	−0.6% / +8.3%	−48.7% / −49.8%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below C$20.90 (−9.5%)	35% 112/324	+0.7% / +8.3%	−44.0% / −49.8%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Dec 29, 2023 +72.0%	Not on one close	24% 4/17	+5.5% / +7.3%	−50.0% / −49.8%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +1.5%	Exit below C$22.96 (−0.6%)	27% 179/664	−0.4% / +8.3%	−41.7% / −49.8%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 24, 2026 +2.2%	Exit below C$19.31 (−16.4%)	32% 86/266	+1.4% / +8.3%	−44.8% / −49.8%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +1.5%	Exit below C$21.52 (−6.8%)	24% 50/210	+1.2% / +8.3%	−54.3% / −49.8%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +19.9%	Exit below C$22.48 (−2.6%)	35% 25/72	+7.0% / +8.1%	−35.7% / −49.8%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Mar 28, 2024 +65.7%	Not on one close	33% 8/24	+1.5% / +6.5%	−51.8% / −49.8%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2024 +35.1%	Not on one close	38% 12/32	+3.0% / +8.1%	−56.0% / −49.8%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below C$22.00 (−4.7%)	28% 105/376	+1.6% / +8.3%	−37.7% / −49.8%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jan 19, 2026 +21.1%	Not on one close	56% 19/34	+3.6% / +8.3%	−48.6% / −49.8%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +2.9%	Not on one close	61% 188/306	+3.3% / +8.3%	−21.3% / −49.8%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +2.4%	Not on one close	70% 292/420	+7.2% / +8.3%	−16.9% / −49.8%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +2.4%	Buy below C$22.21 (−3.8%)	69% 118/170	+4.4% / +8.3%	−42.6% / −49.8%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +1.1%	Not on one close	69% 103/150	+8.9% / +8.3%	−21.8% / −49.8%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 +2.2%	Not on one close	60% 153/256	+3.8% / +8.3%	−39.2% / −49.8%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +1.2%	Not on one close	59% 33/56	+5.7% / +8.3%	−26.6% / −49.8%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +493.6%	Sell above C$52.44 (+127.1%)	–	+8.3% / +8.3%	−49.8% / −49.8%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Mar 25, 2020 +145.6%	Buy below C$17.79 (−23.0%)	40% 4/10	−0.1% / +8.3%	−42.6% / −49.8%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Aug 14, 2026 +1.5%	Exit below C$22.86 (−1.0%)	44% 139/319	+2.2% / +8.3%	−48.6% / −49.8%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 +2.2%	Not on one close	53% 243/460	+6.4% / +8.3%	−40.9% / −49.8%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Sep 3, 2026 +2.1%	Buy below C$23.09 (0.0%)	58% 967/1654	+4.3% / +8.3%	−33.7% / −49.8%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +1.6%	Not on one close	59% 61/104	+2.8% / +8.3%	−48.6% / −49.8%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below C$23.02 (−0.3%)	35% 391/1105	+2.8% / +8.3%	−27.2% / −49.8%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +1.4%	Buy below C$23.22 (+0.6%)	53% 80/152	+6.3% / +8.3%	−23.3% / −49.8%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +1.7%	Not on one close	24% 169/712	−0.6% / +8.3%	−61.6% / −49.8%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +1.6%	Not on one close	41% 83/204	+1.8% / +8.3%	−65.4% / −49.8%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +0.5%	Not on one close	60% 31/52	+7.6% / +8.3%	−25.9% / −49.8%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Aug 14, 2026 +1.5%	Exit below C$22.50 (−2.6%)	33% 58/174	+2.1% / +8.1%	−49.9% / −49.8%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +2.4%	Exit below C$22.85 (−1.0%)	28% 195/696	+2.8% / +8.3%	−35.0% / −49.8%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +1.7%	Exit below C$21.25 (−8.0%)	30% 117/394	+1.6% / +8.3%	−45.9% / −49.8%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +3.2%	Not on one close	36% 177/488	+2.2% / +8.3%	−47.0% / −49.8%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Jul 23, 2026 +2.1%	Not on one close	31% 29/95	+5.6% / +8.2%	−52.7% / −49.8%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +2.9%	Sell C$21.93–C$23.06 (−0.1%)	34% 312/914	+2.3% / +8.3%	−49.7% / −49.8%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Dec 29, 2025 +26.4%	Exit below C$22.98 (−0.5%)	51% 78/152	+7.4% / +8.3%	−29.2% / −49.8%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Jul 14, 2026 +0.3%	Not on one close	34% 32/94	+3.3% / +8.3%	−22.6% / −49.8%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Feb 7, 2025 +47.6%	Not on one close	50% 19/38	+1.9% / +8.3%	−7.2% / −49.8%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +0.4%	Buys Oct 30	56% 24/43	+6.0% / +8.3%	−48.6% / −49.8%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 29, 2026 +0.7%	Not on one close	49% 21/43	+5.0% / +8.3%	−48.7% / −49.8%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	May 4, 2026 +0.5%	Window opens Oct 16	53% 23/43	+5.7% / +8.3%	−50.7% / −49.8%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +24.8%	Buys Dec 23	50% 22/44	+2.3% / +8.3%	−5.5% / −49.8%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +1.1%	Buys Oct 29	53% 280/526	+5.7% / +8.3%	−23.8% / −49.8%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +1.4%	Sells Jun 30	55% 6/11	+2.9% / +8.3%	−24.8% / −49.8%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +1.9%	Buys Nov 24	49% 190/386	+3.0% / +8.3%	−7.1% / −49.8%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +66.4%	Not on one close	55% 11/20	+5.2% / +8.3%	−30.7% / −49.8%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	51% 1166/2284	+3.9% / +8.3%	−45.6% / −49.8%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +3.3%	Buys Oct 27	47% 165/348	+2.9% / +8.3%	−5.0% / −49.8%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +1.2%	Sells Oct 16	46% 250/541	+3.0% / +8.3%	−39.3% / −49.8%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 4, 2005	Always in	–	+8.3%	−49.8%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureModerate3 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes1/2
Debt2/3
Run-up0/2

It fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes.
It operating profit covers interest only 2.9×.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high Dec 2009

FCR.UN−40%

TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Sep 2024

FCR.UN−48%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jun 2022 · back to its old high Jan 2023

FCR.UN−24%

TSX−14%

Beta0.70Moves about 0.7× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture33%In months the TSX fell, this fell 33% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+42%
From 52-week high−1%
Debt to equity0.86×
Net debt / EBITDA15.1×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover2.9×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

REIT - Retail · First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is an unincorporated, open-ended mutual fund trust. First Capital owns and operates, acquires, and develops open-air grocery-anchored shopping centres in neighborhoods with the strongest demographics in Canada. The Trust is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. On November 24, 2025, the Trust's unitholders approved an internal tax reorganization that was completed by way of a plan of arrangement (the Arrangement).

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$4.9B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	C$740M	Total sales. The market values it at 6.6× sales.
P/E ratio	4.8×	Buyers pay C$5 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	17.1×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	1.0×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	139.5%	Keeps 140¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+9.5%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	−63.3%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	23.0%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	C$271M	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	C$4.8B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	C$4.2B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	C$34.0M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.86×	Moderate.
Interest cover	2.9×	Operating profit divided by interest. Under 2× means one bad year could make the interest hard to pay.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$24.36	6% above the close, from 8 analysts (range C$24.00 to C$24.50).
Dividend yield	3.97%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

FCR.UN: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Real estate: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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