Mean reversion · daily rule · Real estate
Bollinger Reversion on First Capital REIT
What the play says
FCR.UN with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding FCR.UN over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +4.4% | +8.3% | +5.9% | +9.8% |
| Total return | +154% | +462% | +33% | +59% |
| Worst drawdown | −42.6% | −49.8% | −17.3% | −29.4% |
| Volatility | 11.3% | 20.0% | 9.8% | 19.6% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.28 | 0.41 | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| Time invested | 18% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 7.8 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 118 of 170 closed calls (69%). In calls averaged +0.9%; out calls saw FCR.UN move +1.6% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | FCR.UN moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | OUT | C$22.55 | now | +2.4% | open |
| Sep 15, 2026 | IN | C$22.44 | Sep 22, 2026 | +0.5% | ✓ right |
| Jun 26, 2026 | OUT | C$22.91 | Sep 15, 2026 | −2.1% | ✓ right |
| Jun 17, 2026 | IN | C$22.56 | Jun 26, 2026 | +1.6% | ✓ right |
| May 20, 2026 | OUT | C$22.97 | Jun 17, 2026 | −1.8% | ✓ right |
| May 13, 2026 | IN | C$22.74 | May 20, 2026 | +1.0% | ✓ right |
| Apr 1, 2026 | OUT | C$20.52 | May 13, 2026 | +10.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 20, 2026 | IN | C$19.95 | Apr 1, 2026 | +2.9% | ✓ right |
| Dec 16, 2025 | OUT | C$18.44 | Mar 20, 2026 | +8.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 3, 2025 | IN | C$18.12 | Dec 16, 2025 | +1.8% | ✓ right |
| Nov 10, 2025 | OUT | C$18.39 | Dec 3, 2025 | −1.5% | ✓ right |
| Oct 28, 2025 | IN | C$18.18 | Nov 10, 2025 | +1.1% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 171 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.