Crypto
Ether (ETH)
Your signal
Hold57 / 100
Hold: 57 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Trend (+17% vs 200-day) scores 86 and lifts it; Plays in (29%) scores 29 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | ETH | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 29% | 29 | 40 | 11.6 |
| Off the high | −10% from its 1-year high | 66 | 30 | 19.8 |
| Trend | +17% vs 200-day | 86 | 30 | 25.8 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for ETH
| Factor | ETH | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 29% | 29 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −10% from its 1-year high | 66 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | +17% vs 200-day | 86 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | −41% | 7 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 4/10 · moderate | 60 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on ETH- 29 of the 100 plays hold ETH right now.
- The breakout, momentum, volume and pattern plays mostly say out.
- It closed 17% above its 200-day average and 10% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads moderate: it moves about 1.1× its index and fell about 2.3× as far as its index in past crashes.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in29 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureModerate4 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.17×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+17%). Higher than on 64% of days since 2018. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about ETH now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn ETH: right 13 of 24 · Out since Sep 21, 2026Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn ETH: right 64 of 164 · In since Jul 14, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn ETH: right 5 of 10 · Out since May 31, 2026Mean reversionBollinger ReversionIN64% of 53,095 calls rightOn ETH: right 68 of 107 · In since Oct 7, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn ETH: right 8 of 17 · In since Jun 8, 2026Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn ETH: right 124 of 272 · Out since Sep 13, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn ETH: right 9 of 17 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
ETH, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on ETH
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following11 of 30 inBreakouts & channels3 of 15 inMomentum2 of 17 inMean reversion7 of 15 inVolume & money flow2 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns0 of 3 inCalendar4 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on ETH went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2017. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $2,576.70 (+3.2%) | 30% 93/305 | +53.2% / +16.0% | −59.8% / −94.0% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | IN | Aug 23, 2026 +1.3% | Exit below $2,117.34 (−15.2%) | 41% 11/27 | +40.7% / +30.4% | −60.5% / −79.4% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +1.0% | Enter above $2,555.69 (+2.4%) | 28% 44/155 | +41.4% / +12.2% | −64.4% / −91.1% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2025 −42.9% | Not on one close | 18% 14/76 | +23.7% / +22.5% | −55.9% / −82.4% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Sep 13, 2026 +0.8% | Exit below $2,140.28 (−14.3%) | 33% 7/21 | +15.5% / +22.2% | −77.4% / −83.2% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Nov 16, 2025 −19.3% | Enter above $2,671.68 (+7.0%) | 20% 6/30 | +18.4% / +36.6% | −79.1% / −79.4% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | IN | Aug 31, 2026 +1.2% | Exit below $2,150.67 (−13.9%) | 35% 6/17 | +15.7% / +30.1% | −74.1% / −79.4% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | IN | Aug 19, 2026 +10.9% | Exit below $2,139.05 (−14.3%) | 31% 14/45 | +44.4% / +20.7% | −70.9% / −86.4% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Aug 31, 2026 +1.2% | Not on one close | 47% 8/17 | +28.2% / +20.7% | −77.9% / −86.4% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Sep 3, 2026 −0.5% | Exit below $2,139.05 (−14.3%) | 23% 8/35 | +18.9% / +21.3% | −80.4% / −84.3% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | IN | Jul 19, 2026 +33.4% | Exit below $2,529.82 (+1.3%) | 47% 24/51 | +31.9% / +21.0% | −77.1% / −89.7% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $2,557.11 (+2.4%) | 25% 107/433 | +32.2% / +13.5% | −58.8% / −94.0% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | OUT | Sep 7, 2026 +0.2% | Enter above $3,768.24 (+50.9%) | 44% 50/113 | +53.8% / +24.0% | −61.3% / −89.7% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | Sep 8, 2026 +0.5% | Not on one close | 24% 4/17 | +18.9% / +34.2% | −72.8% / −79.4% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | IN | Jul 22, 2026 +29.1% | Exit below $2,472.98 (−0.9%) | 42% 25/59 | +34.4% / +16.2% | −68.6% / −89.7% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | IN | Jul 26, 2026 +27.8% | Exit below $2,242.28 (−10.2%) | 45% 23/51 | +26.4% / +10.4% | −70.5% / −93.2% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +1.0% | Enter above $2,737.35 (+9.6%) | 47% 36/77 | +61.8% / +21.4% | −52.1% / −94.0% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Oct 11, 2026 −1.5% | Not on one close | 43% 69/159 | +42.3% / +21.4% | −64.1% / −94.0% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 −7.9% | Enter above $2,897.71 (+16.1%) | 34% 103/301 | +34.7% / +20.5% | −76.6% / −94.0% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 +2.1% | Enter above $2,805.50 (+12.4%) | 45% 54/119 | +63.6% / +20.9% | −61.8% / −94.0% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $2,714.61 (+8.7%) | 38% 95/247 | +29.0% / +24.0% | −77.0% / −94.0% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +1.0% | Enter above $2,638.48 (+5.7%) | 41% 47/114 | +37.5% / +21.8% | −52.7% / −94.0% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Oct 11, 2026 −1.5% | Enter above $2,763.89 (+10.7%) | 36% 33/91 | +34.6% / +7.7% | −66.7% / −94.0% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | OUT | Oct 11, 2026 −1.5% | Enter above $2,636.07 (+5.6%) | 41% 57/140 | +36.1% / +19.5% | −73.1% / −94.0% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 +0.4% | Enter above $4,106.58 (+64.5%) | 41% 45/109 | +45.3% / +7.7% | −54.2% / −94.0% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | OUT | Oct 2, 2026 −6.4% | Not on one close | 42% 51/121 | +57.3% / +24.0% | −54.9% / −89.7% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 +2.1% | Enter above $2,694.38 (+7.9%) | 35% 30/86 | +41.8% / +12.2% | −68.9% / −91.1% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | IN | Jul 22, 2026 +29.1% | Exit below $1,270.60 (−49.1%) | 44% 22/50 | +38.8% / +12.2% | −64.2% / −91.1% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 4, 2026 −8.4% | Not on one close | 44% 35/80 | +20.3% / +21.5% | −63.4% / −82.5% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Sep 21, 2026 −10.1% | Not on one close | 54% 13/24 | +10.8% / +7.7% | −21.1% / −94.0% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | IN | Jul 14, 2026 +32.1% | Exit below $2,406.14 (−3.6%) | 48% 29/61 | +45.8% / +21.4% | −62.2% / −94.0% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $2,773.54 (+11.1%) | 45% 29/65 | +31.3% / +11.2% | −49.7% / −94.0% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | IN | Aug 19, 2026 +10.9% | Exit below $2,406.14 (−3.6%) | 45% 19/42 | +35.4% / +11.2% | −60.7% / −94.0% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +1.0% | Enter above $2,776.45 (+11.2%) | 42% 17/40 | +35.4% / +12.2% | −47.1% / −91.1% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $2,699.27 (+8.1%) | 42% 28/66 | +43.6% / +21.4% | −74.8% / −94.0% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $2,825.56 (+13.2%) | 47% 43/91 | +27.8% / +13.5% | −38.5% / −94.0% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $2,844.65 (+13.9%) | 42% 49/116 | +38.1% / +22.0% | −39.6% / −94.0% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 +1.0% | Enter above $2,752.64 (+10.3%) | 42% 48/114 | +39.7% / +20.9% | −62.9% / −94.0% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $2,716.04 (+8.8%) | 46% 46/101 | +58.5% / +21.4% | −61.9% / −94.0% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | Jul 14, 2026 +32.1% | Exit below $2,351.08 (−5.8%) | 39% 64/164 | +41.6% / +25.2% | −79.8% / −94.0% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $2,634.11 (+5.5%) | 31% 56/181 | +50.8% / +21.2% | −64.2% / −94.0% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Aug 30, 2026 +3.3% | Not on one close | 37% 38/104 | +11.5% / +21.4% | −39.3% / −94.0% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 −7.0% | Not on one close | 43% 25/58 | +2.9% / +13.5% | −39.2% / −94.0% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 +2.1% | Enter above $2,516.63 (+0.8%) | 34% 137/404 | +36.3% / +25.4% | −64.0% / −94.0% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 9, 2026 +1.2% | Not on one close | 38% 9/24 | −2.0% / +24.4% | −33.6% / −89.7% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | OUT | May 31, 2026 +24.6% | Enter above $3,989.11 (+59.8%) | 36% 5/14 | +24.0% / +47.3% | −61.1% / −79.4% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | OUT | May 31, 2026 +24.6% | Not on one close | 50% 5/10 | +18.0% / +47.3% | −82.9% / −79.4% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | OUT | Nov 30, 2025 −16.6% | Enter above $4,435.65 (+77.7%) | 36% 5/14 | +24.0% / +47.3% | −64.7% / −79.4% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Aug 19, 2026 +10.9% | Not on one close | 31% 18/58 | +20.1% / +11.5% | −51.9% / −91.1% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | OUT | Apr 30, 2024 −17.1% | Enter above $3,715.49 (+48.8%) | 50% 5/10 | +22.9% / +37.5% | −49.4% / −79.4% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | IN | Aug 23, 2026 +1.3% | Exit below $2,231.38 (−10.6%) | 40% 12/30 | +34.7% / +15.7% | −65.4% / −88.2% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 −7.1% | Enter above $2,944.87 (+18.0%) | 36% 83/231 | +24.6% / +7.7% | −71.8% / −94.0% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $2,560.23 (+2.5%) | 31% 125/399 | +32.5% / +7.7% | −58.7% / −94.0% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | OUT | Sep 5, 2026 +0.6% | Enter above $3,956.91 (+58.5%) | 41% 69/170 | +30.0% / +14.3% | −70.7% / −94.0% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | OUT | May 31, 2026 +24.6% | Enter above $2,951.10 (+18.2%) | 40% 2/5 | +35.6% / +50.4% | −79.4% / −79.4% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Sep 26, 2026 −7.4% | Enter above $2,897.90 (+16.1%) | 30% 89/294 | +37.4% / +21.4% | −44.4% / −94.0% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | OUT | Sep 6, 2026 −0.7% | Enter above $5,140.84 (+105.9%) | 44% 64/146 | +35.6% / +12.2% | −64.0% / −91.1% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | OUT | Oct 11, 2026 −1.5% | Enter above $2,763.14 (+10.7%) | 36% 32/90 | +41.3% / +12.2% | −66.4% / −91.1% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2026 +34.2% | Exit below $2,445.92 (−2.0%) | 39% 9/23 | +37.8% / +47.3% | −68.4% / −79.4% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | OUT | May 31, 2026 +24.6% | Not on one close | 57% 4/7 | +7.9% / +28.0% | −82.9% / −79.4% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | OUT | May 31, 2026 +24.6% | Not on one close | 33% 4/12 | +9.0% / +47.3% | −90.6% / −79.4% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 26, 2026 −7.4% | Enter above $3,261.18 (+30.6%) | 39% 61/156 | +47.7% / +24.0% | −54.0% / −89.7% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Aug 30, 2026 +3.3% | Not on one close | 62% 15/24 | +0.1% / +20.8% | −76.7% / −94.0% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 11, 2026 −1.5% | Buy $2,139.05–$2,237.46 (−10.4%) | 62% 79/128 | +1.6% / +20.7% | −54.9% / −86.4% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Sell above $2,534.71 (+1.5%) | 62% 98/157 | +6.9% / +20.7% | −65.2% / −86.4% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Sell above $2,622.54 (+5.0%) | 64% 68/107 | −10.4% / +22.0% | −82.0% / −94.0% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | OUT | Jul 7, 2026 +41.2% | Not on one close | 66% 59/90 | −4.9% / +20.6% | −71.9% / −94.0% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +0.4% | Not on one close | 64% 94/147 | −12.4% / +20.5% | −96.1% / −94.0% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | IN | May 20, 2026 +17.4% | Not on one close | 51% 22/43 | +10.6% / +25.3% | −88.9% / −94.0% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | May 16, 2021 −30.4% | Sell above $5,170.10 (+107.1%) | 67% 8/12 | +18.0% / +20.7% | −86.4% / −86.4% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Oct 11, 2026 −1.5% | Not on one close | 52% 29/56 | −1.4% / +24.0% | −50.8% / −89.7% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 +3.3% | Enter above $2,566.65 (+2.8%) | 47% 84/180 | −4.7% / +13.5% | −75.3% / −94.0% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Oct 4, 2026 −8.4% | Not on one close | 56% 128/227 | −1.4% / +13.5% | −89.4% / −94.0% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Buy below $2,496.61 (0.0%) | 58% 572/978 | −9.6% / +26.8% | −83.2% / −94.0% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 +0.4% | Sell above $2,745.71 (+10.0%) | 56% 25/45 | +4.5% / +20.7% | −57.3% / −86.4% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $2,532.99 (+1.5%) | 37% 218/583 | +21.7% / +7.7% | −74.0% / −94.0% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | OUT | Jul 31, 2026 +34.2% | Buy below $2,737.82 (+9.7%) | 54% 25/46 | −9.4% / +14.3% | −88.8% / −94.0% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Oct 6, 2026 −7.4% | Not on one close | 25% 122/497 | +38.9% / +22.0% | −68.0% / −94.0% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 +2.1% | Not on one close | 38% 45/117 | +44.7% / +21.4% | −77.7% / −94.0% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | IN | Jun 8, 2026 +47.7% | Not on one close | 47% 8/17 | −6.1% / +20.8% | −91.1% / −94.0% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | OUT | Jan 28, 2026 −17.0% | Enter above $2,821.11 (+13.0%) | 48% 30/63 | +18.4% / +23.1% | −82.6% / −82.4% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $2,636.87 (+5.6%) | 27% 112/413 | +38.0% / +22.0% | −56.5% / −94.0% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Enter above $3,158.21 (+26.5%) | 33% 64/193 | +40.6% / +22.0% | −69.2% / −94.0% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Oct 2, 2026 −6.4% | Not on one close | 31% 121/387 | +27.9% / +21.4% | −79.3% / −94.0% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | IN | Oct 11, 2026 −1.5% | Not on one close | 43% 20/46 | +42.8% / +22.5% | −74.6% / −81.9% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Buy $2,471.22–$2,727.00 (−1.0%) | 36% 196/547 | +21.2% / +13.2% | −66.6% / −90.3% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | OUT | Sep 13, 2026 +0.8% | Not on one close | 46% 124/272 | +11.1% / +25.5% | −86.1% / −94.0% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −3.0% | Not on one close | 49% 41/84 | +23.1% / +26.0% | −68.5% / −94.0% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Jun 2, 2026 +34.4% | Not on one close | 58% 21/36 | +2.4% / +20.8% | −34.8% / −94.0% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 +10.7% | Buys Oct 31 | 53% 9/17 | +27.4% / +26.8% | −79.3% / −94.0% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 2, 2026 +21.4% | Enter above $2,716.36 (+8.8%) | 44% 8/18 | +9.4% / +7.7% | −80.7% / −94.0% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | Apr 24, 2026 +7.8% | Window opens Oct 16 | 47% 8/17 | +19.8% / +7.7% | −78.5% / −94.0% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 2, 2026 −20.1% | Buys Dec 26 | 61% 11/18 | +9.4% / +26.8% | −11.7% / −94.0% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 3, 2026 −7.1% | Buys Oct 30 | 56% 119/214 | +21.1% / +26.8% | −53.9% / −94.0% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 −7.0% | Sells Jun 30 | 60% 3/5 | +8.2% / +26.8% | −63.8% / −94.0% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 +1.7% | Buys Nov 24 | 48% 82/170 | +2.1% / +26.8% | −23.8% / −94.0% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 31, 2022 +108.6% | Not on one close | 33% 2/6 | −4.9% / +14.3% | −94.0% / −94.0% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 +2.1% | Sells Oct 16 | 46% 427/931 | −15.8% / +26.8% | −92.3% / −94.0% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +3.3% | Buys Oct 27 | 51% 71/140 | +7.4% / +26.8% | −13.9% / −94.0% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 3, 2026 −7.1% | Sells Oct 18 | 52% 116/221 | +8.8% / +26.8% | −85.4% / −94.0% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Nov 9, 2017 | Always in | – | +25.8% | −94.0% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureModerate4 of 10 points
- Market swings2/3
- Past crashes2/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
- It moves about 1.1× its index.
- It fell about 2.3× as far as its index in past crashes.
- Beta1.14Moves about 1.1× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture391%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 391% as much on average.
- Two-year change+1%
- From 52-week high−40%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.