Breakouts & channels · daily rule · Crypto
P&F Double Top on Ether
What the play says
ETH with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2017
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ETH over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2017 | Hold, since 2017 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +41.6% | +25.2% | −0.3% | −7.1% |
| Total return | +2,131% | +639% | −2% | −31% |
| Worst drawdown | −79.8% | −94.0% | −54.8% | −79.4% |
| Volatility | 61.1% | 84.1% | 46.0% | 68.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.83 | 0.66 | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| Time invested | 57% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 18.4 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 64 of 164 closed calls (39%). In calls averaged +6.4%; out calls saw ETH move +0.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ETH moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | IN | $1,889.48 | now | +32.1% | open |
| Jun 24, 2026 | OUT | $1,619.92 | Jul 14, 2026 | +16.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 15, 2026 | IN | $1,794.96 | Jun 24, 2026 | −9.8% | ✕ wrong |
| May 15, 2026 | OUT | $2,223.33 | Jun 15, 2026 | −19.3% | ✓ right |
| Apr 7, 2026 | IN | $2,241.81 | May 15, 2026 | −0.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 27, 2026 | OUT | $1,991.27 | Apr 7, 2026 | +12.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 25, 2026 | IN | $2,054.63 | Mar 27, 2026 | −3.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 20, 2026 | OUT | $2,935.61 | Feb 25, 2026 | −30.0% | ✓ right |
| Jan 14, 2026 | IN | $3,354.72 | Jan 20, 2026 | −12.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 15, 2025 | OUT | $2,964.18 | Jan 14, 2026 | +13.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 3, 2025 | IN | $3,191.57 | Dec 15, 2025 | −7.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 13, 2025 | OUT | $3,232.76 | Dec 3, 2025 | −1.3% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 165 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a double-top breakout: the current X column rises at least one box above the top of the previous X column.
- Out on a double-bottom breakdown: the current O column falls at least one box below the bottom of the previous O column.
- Otherwise the rule keeps the chart's last signal.
Boxes are 2% apart, and a new column needs a 3-box reversal (about 6%). Dorsey's classic box table uses fixed price bands; ChartSchool's examples use 1% boxes.
The chart is built from daily highs and lows by StockCharts' high-low method: a new box from the high wins, and the low only counts if it reverses the column.
The signal fires on the day the breakout box fills during the day. Be The Puck acts on that day's close.
Where the rules come from
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.