Energy & power

Cenovus Energy (CVE)

C$46.65 +4.2% on the day·+97.2% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy82 / 100

Buy: 82 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−1% from its 1-year high) scores 96 and lifts it; Plays in (61%) scores 61 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	CVE	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	61%	61	40	24.4
Off the high	−1% from its 1-year high	96	30	28.8
Trend	+28% vs 200-day	95	30	28.5

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for CVE

Factor	CVE	Points	What it is
Plays in	61%	61	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+9% · 15 analysts	42	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.5 · buy	75	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	13.0×	87	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	12.3×	75	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	15.91	2	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	1.6×	77	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	2.5×	61	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	2.0%	51	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+239%	93	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+42%	80	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	12%	54	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	21%	71	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.34×	62	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−1% from its 1-year high	96	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+28% vs 200-day	95	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+97%	92	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	1/10 · low	90	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on CVE

61 of the 100 plays hold CVE right now.
The trend-following and momentum plays mostly say in.
It closed 28% above its 200-day average and 1% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low: it is up 102% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$51.00, 9% above the close (15 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in61 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow1 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.28×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+28%). Higher than on 89% of days since 2010. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about CVE now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn CVE: right 13 of 22 · Out since Oct 9, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn CVE: right 34 of 106 · In since Jul 23, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn CVE: right 12 of 34 · In since Sep 30, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn CVE: right 109 of 158 · Out since Jul 8, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn CVE: right 22 of 32 · Out since Jun 20, 2025 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn CVE: right 49 of 101 · In since Aug 26, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn CVE: right 22 of 33 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

CVE, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved CVE lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P/TSX; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Oct 13+3.4% against the S&P/TSX1.3× a normal day

CVE +4.2%, the S&P/TSX +0.9% that session.

HeadlineSeeking Alpha · Oct 12, 3:28 pm ET
Cenovus Energy: Strong Growth And Good Shareholder Returns Ahead (NYSE:CVE)
HeadlineMarketBeat · Oct 9, 7:44 pm ET
Cenovus Energy Inc $CVE Stock Sold by Castle Rock Wealth Management LLC

Wed Sep 16−3.3% against the S&P/TSX1.2× a normal day

CVE −3.6%, the S&P/TSX −0.3% that session; −8.7% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on CVE was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for CVE starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.3%. The 58 other Energy & power stocks Be The Puck covers moved −1.4% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Tue Sep 1+4.8% against the S&P/TSX1.7× a normal day

CVE +3.5%, the S&P/TSX −1.2% that session; +3.3% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on CVE was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for CVE starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −1.2%. The 58 other Energy & power stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.7% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Thu Oct 29, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 1.47.

Over its last 12 reports, CVE's typical move against the S&P/TSX at the first close after the report was ±2.9% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 6 times.
CVE after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 15 of 21 times (median +1.5%).
CVE after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 15 of 27 times (median −0.7%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on CVE

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following23 of 30 in Breakouts & channels9 of 15 in Momentum14 of 17 in Mean reversion5 of 15 in Volume & money flow4 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on CVE went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2009. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +4.2%	Exit below C$44.80 (−4.0%)	29% 138/478	+5.6% / +5.7%	−69.3% / −92.8%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Jan 16, 2026 +89.3%	Exit below C$41.30 (−11.5%)	18% 18/101	+0.9% / +5.6%	−80.0% / −92.8%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Jul 10, 2026 +25.5%	Exit below C$43.71 (−6.3%)	22% 72/321	+2.8% / +6.2%	−77.7% / −92.8%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +4.2%	Exit below C$44.09 (−5.5%)	22% 18/81	+2.8% / +5.6%	−62.3% / −92.8%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Aug 29, 2025 +111.2%	Exit below C$40.03 (−14.2%)	19% 13/68	+0.3% / +5.9%	−73.7% / −92.8%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Jan 16, 2026 +89.3%	Exit below C$40.03 (−14.2%)	19% 16/83	−1.1% / +5.6%	−73.4% / −92.8%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2025 +128.7%	Exit below C$37.28 (−20.1%)	18% 6/34	+6.5% / +5.3%	−69.8% / −92.8%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Jul 28, 2025 +134.0%	Exit below C$36.38 (−22.0%)	10% 18/185	+2.8% / +6.0%	−85.0% / −92.8%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Aug 18, 2025 +133.4%	Not on one close	21% 6/28	−2.2% / +6.0%	−91.6% / −92.8%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2025 +113.7%	Exit below C$36.38 (−22.0%)	12% 11/94	+5.2% / +5.8%	−74.7% / −92.8%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +4.2%	Enter above C$46.45 (−0.4%)	35% 40/115	+4.2% / +6.3%	−63.9% / −92.8%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +4.2%	Exit below C$44.83 (−3.9%)	25% 153/601	+9.8% / +5.9%	−74.4% / −92.8%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +2.3%	Enter above C$50.44 (+8.1%)	33% 69/208	+2.8% / +5.5%	−73.5% / −92.8%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Aug 26, 2025 +108.6%	Not on one close	13% 4/30	+2.5% / +4.9%	−77.9% / −92.8%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Jul 17, 2026 +19.6%	Exit below C$39.92 (−14.4%)	24% 26/110	+2.5% / +5.4%	−77.8% / −92.8%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Jul 21, 2026 +15.5%	Exit below C$40.09 (−14.1%)	24% 26/109	−1.3% / +6.2%	−83.7% / −92.8%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Jul 13, 2026 +19.8%	Exit below C$43.05 (−7.7%)	34% 47/138	+0.3% / +5.6%	−80.8% / −92.8%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +4.2%	Not on one close	40% 98/246	+2.1% / +5.6%	−67.7% / −92.8%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +4.2%	Exit below C$40.65 (−12.9%)	39% 161/415	+7.5% / +5.7%	−78.2% / −92.8%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +0.9%	Enter above C$47.45 (+1.7%)	32% 56/174	+1.6% / +6.2%	−79.1% / −92.8%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below C$43.37 (−7.0%)	39% 148/379	+5.9% / +5.8%	−62.5% / −92.8%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +5.8%	Not on one close	34% 37/110	+2.5% / +6.1%	−48.7% / −92.8%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Jul 15, 2026 +21.8%	Exit below C$41.66 (−10.7%)	22% 38/169	+2.2% / +6.4%	−74.2% / −92.8%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +0.9%	Exit below C$44.40 (−4.8%)	36% 74/203	+3.2% / +6.1%	−74.3% / −92.8%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$42.24 (−9.5%)	25% 50/199	−0.1% / +6.4%	−82.5% / −92.8%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	38% 72/192	+9.5% / +5.5%	−73.6% / −92.8%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Jul 14, 2026 +21.0%	Exit below C$41.12 (−11.8%)	25% 35/141	+4.2% / +6.2%	−65.4% / −92.8%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Jul 16, 2026 +22.5%	Exit below C$25.71 (−44.9%)	26% 23/87	+3.3% / +6.2%	−78.6% / −92.8%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +2.3%	Not on one close	34% 57/168	+4.6% / +5.1%	−63.5% / −92.8%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2025 +88.5%	Not on one close	59% 13/22	+2.3% / +6.4%	−19.8% / −92.8%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Jul 20, 2026 +17.8%	Exit below C$42.83 (−8.2%)	28% 30/109	+2.0% / +5.6%	−82.8% / −92.8%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +5.8%	Enter above C$47.45 (+1.7%)	31% 31/100	+3.2% / +6.3%	−64.7% / −92.8%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	IN	Aug 17, 2026 +5.2%	Exit below C$42.83 (−8.2%)	34% 21/61	+6.5% / +6.3%	−59.3% / −92.8%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Jul 30, 2026 +10.3%	Exit below C$42.61 (−8.7%)	33% 25/75	+2.3% / +6.2%	−69.9% / −92.8%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	IN	Aug 17, 2026 +5.2%	Exit below C$42.83 (−8.2%)	27% 22/83	−5.0% / +5.6%	−72.9% / −92.8%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Sep 21, 2026 +5.2%	Enter above C$48.08 (+3.1%)	44% 45/102	+6.9% / +5.9%	−43.0% / −92.8%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 21, 2026 +5.2%	Enter above C$46.74 (+0.2%)	37% 58/156	+5.2% / +5.8%	−36.8% / −92.8%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Aug 13, 2026 +9.8%	Exit below C$43.25 (−7.3%)	38% 58/153	+4.6% / +6.0%	−71.5% / −92.8%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Jul 8, 2026 +24.2%	Exit below C$42.68 (−8.5%)	35% 53/153	+2.6% / +5.6%	−75.5% / −92.8%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Jul 23, 2026 +11.9%	Exit below C$42.21 (−9.5%)	32% 34/106	+0.9% / +5.7%	−69.0% / −92.8%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$43.78 (−6.2%)	26% 75/287	+4.6% / +6.0%	−77.1% / −92.8%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 24, 2026 +5.2%	Not on one close	33% 49/150	+1.5% / +5.6%	−19.1% / −92.8%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 +1.3%	Enter above C$47.96 (+2.8%)	34% 30/88	−3.3% / +5.9%	−47.1% / −92.8%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$44.48 (−4.7%)	35% 184/524	+10.0% / +5.5%	−61.3% / −92.8%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 21, 2026 +5.2%	Not on one close	30% 9/30	+0.0% / +5.4%	−19.4% / −92.8%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +102.4%	Exit below C$23.98 (−48.6%)	38% 10/26	+6.7% / +5.3%	−62.3% / −92.8%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +102.4%	Not on one close	35% 12/34	+3.5% / +5.3%	−66.1% / −92.8%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +76.5%	Exit below C$26.66 (−42.9%)	40% 8/20	+9.8% / +5.3%	−34.7% / −92.8%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Jul 8, 2026 +24.2%	Exit below C$41.10 (−11.9%)	14% 21/149	−0.8% / +6.3%	−75.9% / −92.8%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +10.9%	Exit below C$40.15 (−13.9%)	35% 8/23	+4.4% / +5.6%	−54.5% / −92.8%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Jul 10, 2026 +25.5%	Exit below C$42.08 (−9.8%)	23% 22/94	−0.6% / +5.5%	−69.8% / −92.8%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$44.78 (−4.0%)	37% 122/327	+9.3% / +6.4%	−59.2% / −92.8%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +4.2%	Exit below C$44.94 (−3.7%)	32% 181/567	+7.9% / +6.4%	−67.7% / −92.8%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 +1.7%	Enter above C$50.78 (+8.8%)	42% 92/221	+10.1% / +6.1%	−58.3% / −92.8%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Aug 29, 2025 +111.2%	Not on one close	26% 6/23	−3.2% / +4.8%	−90.5% / −92.8%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$45.30 (−2.9%)	31% 131/429	+5.9% / +5.6%	−40.5% / −92.8%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +4.6%	Enter above C$56.69 (+21.5%)	38% 77/202	+4.0% / +6.2%	−75.2% / −92.8%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Jul 15, 2026 +21.8%	Exit below C$41.61 (−10.8%)	24% 39/163	+2.8% / +6.2%	−73.2% / −92.8%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Jan 30, 2026 +76.5%	Exit below C$41.27 (−11.5%)	47% 27/58	+13.8% / +5.3%	−46.1% / −92.8%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +102.4%	Not on one close	33% 10/30	+3.0% / +5.0%	−62.9% / −92.5%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2025 +102.4%	Not on one close	52% 14/27	+7.2% / +5.3%	−54.0% / −92.8%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +2.5%	Enter above C$47.46 (+1.7%)	37% 97/263	+5.2% / +5.5%	−64.9% / −92.8%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 29, 2025 +111.2%	Not on one close	69% 18/26	−0.4% / +5.5%	−81.2% / −92.8%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 +5.7%	Not on one close	59% 101/170	+0.4% / +6.0%	−51.9% / −92.8%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Buy C$36.38–C$43.67 (−6.4%)	63% 144/230	+3.8% / +6.0%	−68.9% / −92.8%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jul 8, 2026 +24.2%	Buy below C$42.76 (−8.3%)	69% 109/158	−0.1% / +5.8%	−85.9% / −92.8%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Jul 15, 2026 +21.8%	Not on one close	66% 90/136	−0.3% / +5.6%	−81.2% / −92.8%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +5.8%	Exit below C$46.01 (−1.4%)	67% 153/229	+11.8% / +5.7%	−54.0% / −92.8%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Feb 2, 2026 +78.4%	Not on one close	69% 47/68	+3.9% / +5.1%	−81.2% / −92.8%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Aug 18, 2010 +154.6%	Sell above C$87.92 (+88.5%)	–	+6.0% / +6.0%	−92.8% / −92.8%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Apr 9, 2025 +188.0%	Not on one close	42% 10/24	−6.2% / +5.5%	−77.2% / −92.8%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +3.7%	Not on one close	48% 117/244	+5.3% / +5.9%	−63.4% / −92.8%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +3.7%	Exit below C$46.22 (−0.9%)	56% 176/313	+6.4% / +5.9%	−68.6% / −92.8%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +4.2%	Buy below C$46.65 (0.0%)	56% 817/1452	−6.7% / +5.4%	−80.9% / −92.8%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Jul 13, 2026 +19.8%	Not on one close	60% 37/62	+4.2% / +6.0%	−30.0% / −92.8%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +5.4%	Exit below C$44.04 (−5.6%)	38% 305/796	+12.1% / +6.4%	−71.7% / −92.8%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +10.9%	Buy below C$45.13 (−3.3%)	54% 55/101	+1.3% / +5.6%	−87.7% / −92.8%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +4.0%	Not on one close	26% 152/592	+3.3% / +5.8%	−78.2% / −92.8%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +1.3%	Not on one close	42% 70/168	+5.5% / +5.6%	−69.6% / −92.8%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Jun 20, 2025 +139.9%	Not on one close	69% 22/32	+2.5% / +5.5%	−85.3% / −92.8%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	May 9, 2025 +164.1%	Not on one close	30% 36/120	+2.4% / +5.3%	−71.1% / −92.8%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$45.57 (−2.3%)	28% 166/591	+2.4% / +6.2%	−75.1% / −92.8%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +6.6%	Enter above C$44.66 (−4.3%)	35% 100/285	+3.1% / +5.8%	−71.0% / −92.8%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +1.4%	Not on one close	36% 174/486	+2.6% / +5.6%	−60.1% / −92.8%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Jul 18, 2025 +149.8%	Not on one close	26% 24/94	+1.5% / +5.4%	−85.5% / −92.8%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +4.2%	Not on one close	35% 259/730	+6.1% / +5.2%	−72.9% / −92.8%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Aug 26, 2026 +7.3%	Exit below C$45.52 (−2.4%)	49% 49/101	+1.0% / +5.2%	−66.4% / −92.8%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Nov 25, 2025 +94.7%	Not on one close	33% 25/76	+1.5% / +5.2%	−56.4% / −92.8%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jul 15, 2026 +21.8%	Not on one close	52% 28/54	+1.4% / +5.9%	−39.4% / −92.8%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +18.6%	Buys Oct 30	67% 22/33	+4.6% / +5.4%	−86.3% / −92.8%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +0.9%	Window opens Apr 1	49% 17/35	+1.3% / +6.4%	−90.0% / −92.8%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 +38.6%	Window opens Oct 16	47% 16/34	+0.5% / +6.4%	−91.6% / −92.8%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +107.2%	Buys Dec 23	65% 22/34	+4.9% / +5.4%	−8.3% / −92.8%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +4.0%	Buys Oct 29	50% 205/406	+4.0% / +5.4%	−53.4% / −92.8%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +5.4%	Sells Jun 30	44% 4/9	+0.4% / +5.4%	−54.9% / −92.8%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +4.6%	Buys Nov 24	51% 155/302	+1.6% / +5.4%	−17.9% / −92.8%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +98.1%	Not on one close	36% 5/14	+0.9% / +5.6%	−66.1% / −92.8%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	49% 865/1767	+3.9% / +5.4%	−80.7% / −92.8%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +2.5%	Buys Oct 27	46% 124/270	+3.2% / +5.4%	−10.0% / −92.8%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +0.9%	Sells Oct 16	47% 199/419	−1.9% / +5.4%	−82.3% / −92.8%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Nov 2, 2009	Always in	–	+5.4%	−92.8%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow1 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up1/2

It is up 102% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jun 2021

CVE−81%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jan 2022 · back to its old high Jan 2022

CVE5%

TSX−14%

Beta0.48Moves about 0.5× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture10%In months the TSX fell, this fell 10% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+102%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−1%
Debt to equity0.37×
Net debt / EBITDA0.6×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover7.8×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Oil & Gas Integrated · Cenovus Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, refines, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products in Canada, the United States, and China. It operates through Upstream and Downstream segments.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$86.0B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	C$53.9B	Total sales. The market values it at 1.6× sales.
P/E ratio	13.0×	Buyers pay C$13 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	12.3×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	2.5×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	12.4%	Keeps 12¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+41.5%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+239.1%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	20.9%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	C$5.5B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	C$31.6B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	C$11.6B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	C$3.2B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.37×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	7.8×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$51.00	9% above the close, from 15 analysts (range C$47.00 to C$57.00).
Consensus rating	Strong buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	1.97%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

CVE: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Energy & power: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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