Volume & money flow · daily rule · Energy & power
Money Flow Index on Cenovus Energy
CVE with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2009
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding CVE over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2009 | Hold, since 2009 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +2.5% | +5.5% | +6.8% | +29.6% |
| Total return | +51% | +145% | +39% | +264% |
| Worst drawdown | −85.4% | −92.8% | −26.2% | −47.2% |
| Volatility | 32.7% | 41.8% | 15.0% | 37.6% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.21 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.78 |
| Time invested | 41% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.9 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 22 of 32 closed calls (69%). In calls averaged +4.1%; out calls saw CVE move +2.5% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | CVE moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2025 | OUT | C$19.44 | now | +139.1% | open |
| Mar 6, 2025 | IN | C$17.19 | Jun 20, 2025 | +13.1% | ✓ right |
| Oct 9, 2024 | OUT | C$22.68 | Mar 6, 2025 | −24.2% | ✓ right |
| Sep 13, 2024 | IN | C$20.72 | Oct 9, 2024 | +9.5% | ✓ right |
| Mar 8, 2024 | OUT | C$21.84 | Sep 13, 2024 | −5.2% | ✓ right |
| Nov 10, 2023 | IN | C$22.69 | Mar 8, 2024 | −3.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 18, 2021 | OUT | C$10.56 | Nov 10, 2023 | +114.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 1, 2021 | IN | C$8.63 | Jun 18, 2021 | +22.3% | ✓ right |
| Nov 25, 2020 | OUT | C$6.15 | Apr 1, 2021 | +40.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 29, 2020 | IN | C$10.17 | Nov 25, 2020 | −39.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 30, 2019 | OUT | C$11.32 | Jan 29, 2020 | −10.2% | ✓ right |
| Oct 15, 2019 | IN | C$9.67 | Dec 30, 2019 | +17.1% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 33 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.