Turned Dysart's volume indexes into a tested bull/bear signal
Norman Fosback
Norman G. Fosback wrote Stock Market Logic (1976), published by the Institute for Econometric Research in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, a book built on statistically tested market indicators. He was Glen King Parker's partner at the Institute, which published the Market Logic newsletter, and his mid-1970s seasonality model was later tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.
What they argue
- Indicators should be tested statistically and judged by the probabilities they deliver, not by anecdotes.
- When the Negative Volume Index is above its one-year average, the odds that a bull market is under way are about 96%.
Sources
Summaries are Be The Puck's paraphrase of public material. Be The Puck has no affiliation with the people listed.
Fosback's Negative Volume Index above its one-year average
Rule and full recordVolume & money flow · daily · with Paul Dysart
A price index that moves only on days when volume shrinks, on the theory that quiet days show what informed investors are doing. Hold the stock while that index is above its one-year average.
Best risk-adjusted results against buy and hold: