Financials

TD Bank (TD)

C$167.83 +2.2% on the day·+57.5% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy68 / 100

Buy: 68 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−4% from its 1-year high) scores 88 and lifts it; Plays in (46%) scores 46 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	TD	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	46%	46	40	18.4
Off the high	−4% from its 1-year high	88	30	26.4
Trend	+13% vs 200-day	78	30	23.4

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for TD

Factor	TD	Points	What it is
Plays in	46%	46	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+7% · 14 analysts	39	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	2.2 · buy	39	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	18.0×	71	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	15.0×	53	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	0.91	72	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	4.5×	41	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	2.2×	69	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	2.7%	64	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+45%	69	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+12%	43	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	27%	77	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	13%	52	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	–	–	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0.
Off the high	−4% from its 1-year high	88	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+13% vs 200-day	78	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+57%	80	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	4/10 · moderate	60	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on TD

46 of the 100 plays hold TD right now.
The volume plays mostly say in; the breakout plays mostly say out.
It closed 13% above its 200-day average and 4% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads moderate: it carries 4.2× as much debt as equity and is up 131% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$180.07, 7% above the close (14 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in46 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureModerate4 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.13×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+13%). Higher than on 83% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about TD now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn TD: right 35 of 73 · Out since Jul 23, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn TD: right 9 of 42 · In since Feb 11, 2025 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn TD: right 7 of 24 · In since Feb 28, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn TD: right 127 of 188 · Out since Oct 13, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn TD: right 18 of 30 · Out since Aug 1, 2024 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn TD: right 54 of 110 · In since Jul 28, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn TD: right 26 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

TD, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved TD lately

Its biggest move against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Thu Sep 10+2.1% against the S&P/TSX2.0× a normal day

TD +1.0%, the S&P/TSX −1.1% that session; +3.7% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on TD was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for TD starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −1.1%. The 25 other Financials stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.2% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Thu Dec 3, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 2.54.

Over its last 12 reports, TD's typical move against the S&P/TSX at the first close after the report was ±1.2% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 7 times.
TD after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 10 of 16 times (median +0.6%).
TD after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 12 of 14 times (median −1.8%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on TD

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following16 of 30 in Breakouts & channels3 of 15 in Momentum10 of 17 in Mean reversion5 of 15 in Volume & money flow7 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on TD went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$165.75 (−1.2%)	30% 169/561	+9.1% / +13.4%	−40.0% / −54.8%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Jan 17, 2025 +114.9%	Exit below C$161.91 (−3.5%)	21% 24/112	+9.0% / +13.4%	−31.3% / −54.8%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$166.10 (−1.0%)	24% 81/344	+8.1% / +13.4%	−42.5% / −54.8%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$166.82 (−0.6%)	20% 14/71	+6.2% / +13.6%	−16.0% / −54.8%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Jan 10, 2025 +128.5%	Exit below C$158.16 (−5.8%)	21% 19/90	+8.1% / +13.4%	−33.1% / −54.8%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Feb 21, 2025 +109.9%	Exit below C$158.16 (−5.8%)	32% 30/94	+8.5% / +13.4%	−25.3% / −54.8%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Jan 31, 2025 +115.5%	Exit below C$150.16 (−10.5%)	19% 8/42	+8.9% / +13.4%	−43.2% / −54.8%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Apr 8, 2025 +124.3%	Exit below C$148.80 (−11.3%)	14% 27/198	+9.0% / +13.4%	−36.0% / −54.8%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Jan 22, 2025 +118.3%	Not on one close	31% 11/36	+10.6% / +13.4%	−27.1% / −54.8%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Apr 8, 2025 +124.3%	Exit below C$148.80 (−11.3%)	12% 17/142	+7.0% / +13.4%	−40.6% / −54.8%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +2.2%	Enter above C$168.18 (+0.2%)	34% 46/134	+8.3% / +13.4%	−39.5% / −54.8%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$165.97 (−1.1%)	28% 207/749	+6.6% / +13.4%	−50.2% / −54.8%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +4.0%	Enter above C$169.15 (+0.8%)	35% 94/268	+6.0% / +13.4%	−37.5% / −54.8%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Jan 17, 2025 +114.9%	Not on one close	18% 6/34	+8.6% / +13.5%	−47.3% / −54.8%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +4.0%	Enter above C$173.68 (+3.5%)	27% 36/135	+8.1% / +13.4%	−31.0% / −54.8%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +4.0%	Not on one close	29% 33/115	+8.4% / +13.4%	−36.8% / −54.8%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +4.0%	Enter above C$169.01 (+0.7%)	33% 57/173	+6.1% / +13.4%	−45.5% / −54.8%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +0.6%	Not on one close	39% 112/287	+7.3% / +13.4%	−27.4% / −54.8%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +1.0%	Enter above C$170.73 (+1.7%)	36% 188/526	+6.8% / +13.4%	−42.1% / −54.8%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +4.0%	Enter above C$173.62 (+3.5%)	30% 64/216	+5.6% / +13.4%	−43.5% / −54.8%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$159.71 (−4.8%)	38% 189/498	+5.2% / +13.4%	−48.9% / −54.8%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jul 29, 2026 +2.7%	Not on one close	29% 51/175	+6.8% / +13.4%	−28.8% / −54.8%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +0.6%	Enter above C$173.61 (+3.4%)	28% 49/177	+7.5% / +13.4%	−42.7% / −54.8%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Aug 28, 2026 +0.2%	Exit below C$163.48 (−2.6%)	39% 50/128	+9.1% / +13.4%	−34.7% / −54.8%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +1.0%	Enter above C$168.60 (+0.5%)	29% 63/219	+8.5% / +13.4%	−31.6% / −54.8%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +1.0%	Enter above C$167.92 (+0.1%)	34% 85/250	+5.7% / +13.4%	−41.3% / −54.8%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 −0.5%	Not on one close	33% 47/144	+8.2% / +13.4%	−33.4% / −54.8%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Apr 16, 2025 +110.4%	Exit below C$163.62 (−2.5%)	26% 27/104	+8.4% / +13.4%	−33.0% / −54.8%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +1.0%	Not on one close	31% 60/192	+3.7% / +13.4%	−32.3% / −54.8%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jul 23, 2026 +0.7%	Not on one close	48% 35/73	+2.9% / +13.4%	−5.4% / −54.8%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +4.0%	Enter above C$173.62 (+3.5%)	33% 42/127	+6.8% / +13.4%	−54.4% / −54.8%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +4.0%	Enter above C$173.62 (+3.5%)	32% 47/148	+7.4% / +13.4%	−17.8% / −54.8%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jul 29, 2026 +2.7%	Enter above C$173.62 (+3.5%)	31% 28/89	+9.8% / +13.4%	−23.9% / −54.8%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jul 29, 2026 +2.7%	Enter above C$172.90 (+3.0%)	27% 30/111	+6.5% / +13.4%	−19.0% / −54.8%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +4.0%	Not on one close	37% 41/111	+7.8% / +13.4%	−28.5% / −54.8%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Jul 20, 2026 −0.2%	Enter above C$173.21 (+3.2%)	32% 52/160	+6.9% / +13.4%	−15.7% / −54.8%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +0.3%	Enter above C$173.93 (+3.6%)	33% 66/198	+7.6% / +13.4%	−16.9% / −54.8%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +4.0%	Enter above C$172.90 (+3.0%)	36% 65/182	+6.5% / +13.4%	−34.7% / −54.8%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +4.0%	Enter above C$170.09 (+1.3%)	34% 63/185	+6.2% / +13.4%	−37.9% / −54.8%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Feb 11, 2025 +106.1%	Exit below C$155.97 (−7.1%)	21% 9/42	+6.7% / +13.4%	−57.1% / −54.8%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$166.04 (−1.1%)	29% 88/307	+7.1% / +13.4%	−35.9% / −54.8%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Jul 2, 2026 +0.5%	Not on one close	29% 62/216	+3.0% / +13.4%	−19.4% / −54.8%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Apr 23, 2026 +18.3%	Not on one close	33% 43/130	+1.8% / +13.4%	−23.7% / −54.8%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$166.26 (−0.9%)	36% 236/652	+8.7% / +13.4%	−34.1% / −54.8%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jan 20, 2026 +33.3%	Not on one close	28% 9/32	+2.0% / +13.4%	−14.5% / −54.8%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Jan 31, 2025 +115.5%	Exit below C$115.92 (−30.9%)	36% 10/28	+11.2% / +13.6%	−26.1% / −54.8%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Feb 28, 2025 +106.2%	Not on one close	29% 7/24	+10.3% / +13.6%	−35.8% / −54.8%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Mar 31, 2025 +107.2%	Exit below C$128.89 (−23.2%)	42% 15/36	+9.4% / +13.6%	−26.1% / −54.8%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$165.40 (−1.4%)	22% 36/166	+7.7% / +13.4%	−27.6% / −54.8%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2023 +121.6%	Exit below C$147.95 (−11.8%)	38% 3/8	+11.3% / +13.4%	−37.3% / −54.8%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +2.2%	Enter above C$167.81 (0.0%)	32% 42/130	+8.7% / +13.4%	−29.9% / −54.8%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 +0.1%	Enter above C$169.35 (+0.9%)	34% 147/436	+5.2% / +13.4%	−56.1% / −54.8%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$164.06 (−2.2%)	33% 227/697	+6.6% / +13.4%	−54.4% / −54.8%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +0.6%	Enter above C$188.37 (+12.2%)	40% 119/296	+7.6% / +13.4%	−30.0% / −54.8%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2024 +124.8%	Not on one close	27% 3/11	+11.5% / +12.9%	−35.8% / −54.8%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +0.3%	Enter above C$171.95 (+2.5%)	29% 191/666	+5.2% / +13.4%	−16.1% / −54.8%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +1.1%	Enter above C$198.04 (+18.0%)	38% 97/254	+7.5% / +13.4%	−24.3% / −54.8%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Oct 6, 2026 +0.6%	Enter above C$173.81 (+3.6%)	27% 47/171	+7.4% / +13.4%	−43.1% / −54.8%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Jan 31, 2025 +115.5%	Exit below C$159.69 (−4.9%)	25% 19/77	+8.1% / +13.6%	−42.9% / −54.8%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Feb 28, 2025 +106.2%	Not on one close	25% 6/24	+7.8% / +12.6%	−35.8% / −54.8%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Feb 28, 2025 +106.2%	Not on one close	35% 9/26	+9.0% / +13.6%	−35.8% / −54.8%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +1.0%	Enter above C$172.82 (+3.0%)	34% 111/330	+5.7% / +13.4%	−39.4% / −54.8%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	May 16, 2025 +96.3%	Not on one close	59% 20/34	+4.4% / +13.4%	−48.3% / −54.8%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +2.2%	Not on one close	56% 193/344	+2.3% / +13.4%	−24.2% / −54.8%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Buy C$148.80–C$161.11 (−4.0%)	56% 220/396	+2.1% / +13.4%	−50.1% / −54.8%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Buy below C$160.67 (−4.3%)	68% 127/188	+5.3% / +13.4%	−35.1% / −54.8%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +0.3%	Not on one close	65% 103/158	+5.5% / +13.4%	−49.4% / −54.8%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +1.0%	Not on one close	71% 195/275	+10.7% / +13.4%	−41.5% / −54.8%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +0.4%	Not on one close	69% 46/67	+5.4% / +13.4%	−49.3% / −54.8%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +1,511.0%	Sell above C$359.66 (+114.3%)	–	+13.4% / +13.4%	−54.8% / −54.8%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Oct 22, 2024 +128.8%	Not on one close	62% 5/8	+2.5% / +13.4%	−13.9% / −54.8%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	46% 137/298	+5.8% / +13.4%	−43.9% / −54.8%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +2.2%	Exit below C$166.80 (−0.6%)	57% 243/426	+6.5% / +13.4%	−42.1% / −54.8%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +4.2%	Buy below C$167.83 (0.0%)	57% 929/1640	+3.3% / +13.4%	−34.4% / −54.8%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 −0.8%	Not on one close	58% 58/100	+4.0% / +13.4%	−20.1% / −54.8%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +2.2%	Exit below C$154.22 (−8.1%)	39% 419/1067	+7.9% / +13.4%	−27.3% / −54.8%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +1.0%	Buy below C$169.53 (+1.0%)	61% 84/137	+8.2% / +13.4%	−17.8% / −54.8%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +2.2%	Not on one close	26% 189/719	+6.2% / +13.4%	−36.3% / −54.8%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 2, 2026 +0.5%	Not on one close	41% 83/202	+2.6% / +13.4%	−58.1% / −54.8%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Aug 1, 2024 +127.4%	Not on one close	60% 18/30	+6.8% / +13.4%	−29.6% / −54.8%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Mar 27, 2023 +149.3%	Exit below C$141.90 (−15.5%)	33% 22/66	+10.0% / +13.6%	−37.0% / −54.8%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +2.2%	Exit below C$162.63 (−3.1%)	30% 212/703	+7.7% / +13.4%	−44.0% / −54.8%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 +0.1%	Enter above C$201.67 (+20.2%)	32% 107/337	+7.2% / +13.4%	−41.9% / −54.8%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +2.2%	Not on one close	36% 205/576	+2.6% / +13.4%	−50.1% / −54.8%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Jul 2, 2024 +145.7%	Not on one close	29% 16/56	+9.7% / +13.6%	−38.8% / −54.8%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sell C$165.70–C$166.35 (−0.9%)	36% 340/949	+3.4% / +13.4%	−48.1% / −54.8%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Jul 28, 2026 −0.6%	Exit below C$165.02 (−1.7%)	49% 54/110	+5.6% / +13.4%	−29.6% / −54.8%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Jul 8, 2026 +1.3%	Not on one close	38% 34/90	+7.1% / +13.4%	−32.3% / −54.8%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Aug 10, 2026 +0.1%	Not on one close	47% 27/58	+1.6% / +13.4%	−23.1% / −54.8%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +16.3%	Buys Oct 30	60% 26/43	+7.9% / +13.4%	−47.2% / −54.8%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 24, 2026 +18.5%	Enter above C$166.12 (−1.0%)	58% 25/43	+6.8% / +13.4%	−47.0% / −54.8%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 29, 2026 +19.0%	Window opens Oct 16	49% 21/43	+7.4% / +13.4%	−46.7% / −54.8%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +30.7%	Buys Dec 23	48% 21/44	+3.5% / +13.4%	−5.2% / −54.8%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +1.1%	Buys Oct 29	45% 238/526	+1.1% / +13.4%	−28.0% / −54.8%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +1.0%	Sells Jun 30	36% 4/11	+2.4% / +13.4%	−19.1% / −54.8%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +0.4%	Buys Nov 24	50% 194/386	+2.8% / +13.4%	−7.9% / −54.8%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +127.5%	Not on one close	35% 7/20	+7.0% / +13.4%	−22.8% / −54.8%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	49% 1127/2284	+5.0% / +13.4%	−42.5% / −54.8%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +0.1%	Buys Oct 27	44% 154/348	+2.0% / +13.4%	−7.3% / −54.8%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +0.6%	Sells Oct 16	47% 256/541	+6.4% / +13.4%	−36.2% / −54.8%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 4, 2005	Always in	–	+13.4%	−54.8%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureModerate4 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt3/3
Run-up1/2

It carries 4.2× as much debt as equity.
It is up 131% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Feb 2009 · back to its old high Aug 2009

TD−53%

TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jan 2021

TD−35%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jul 2022 · back to its old high Feb 2023

TD−17%

TSX−14%

Beta0.75Moves about 0.8× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture−9%In months the TSX fell, this fell -9% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+131%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−4%
Debt to equity4.17×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Banks - Diversified · The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and Insurance; and Wholesale Banking.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$274B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	C$60.8B	Total sales. The market values it at 4.5× sales.
P/E ratio	18.0×	Buyers pay C$18 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	15.0×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	2.2×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	26.6%	Keeps 27¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+11.5%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+45.0%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	12.8%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	C$128B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	C$533B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	C$633B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	4.17×	Above about 1.5× is heavily borrowed; above 3× is fragile in a downturn.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$180.07	7% above the close, from 14 analysts (range C$148.00 to C$196.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	2.73%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

TD: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Financials: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

Another stock

Email me Test a theory