Sectors
Health Care Select Sector ETF (XLV)
Your signal
Buy70 / 100
Buy: 70 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−3% from its 1-year high) scores 90 and lifts it; Plays in (55%) scores 55 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | XLV | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 55% | 55 | 40 | 22.0 |
| Off the high | −3% from its 1-year high | 90 | 30 | 27.0 |
| Trend | +9% vs 200-day | 69 | 30 | 20.7 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for XLV
| Factor | XLV | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 55% | 55 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −3% from its 1-year high | 90 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | +9% vs 200-day | 69 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +22% | 57 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 0/10 · low | 100 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on XLV- 55 of the 100 plays hold XLV right now.
- The trend-following, momentum and volume plays mostly say in; the pattern plays mostly say out.
- It closed 9% above its 200-day average and 3% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in55 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.09×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+9%). Higher than on 75% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about XLV now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn XLV: right 10 of 32 · Out since Sep 25, 2024Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn XLV: right 9 of 23 · In since Aug 22, 2025Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn XLV: right 10 of 33 · In since Dec 31, 2025Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn XLV: right 117 of 186 · Out since May 12, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn XLV: right 24 of 40 · In since Apr 30, 2026Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn XLV: right 60 of 117 · Out since Oct 13, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn XLV: right 22 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
XLV, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on XLV
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following21 of 30 inBreakouts & channels5 of 15 inMomentum12 of 17 inMean reversion5 of 15 inVolume & money flow7 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns0 of 3 inCalendar5 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on XLV went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $168.95 (−0.4%) | 28% 174/629 | +3.2% / +10.2% | −28.5% / −39.2% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | IN | Jun 5, 2026 +11.8% | Exit below $163.01 (−3.9%) | 28% 29/105 | +4.3% / +10.2% | −35.4% / −39.2% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below $167.32 (−1.4%) | 24% 97/399 | +2.8% / +10.2% | −29.6% / −39.2% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 +2.8% | Enter above $181.97 (+7.3%) | 20% 17/84 | +1.9% / +10.3% | −22.3% / −39.2% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Jun 26, 2026 +6.2% | Exit below $157.19 (−7.3%) | 17% 14/83 | +3.8% / +10.2% | −32.5% / −39.2% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $169.59 (0.0%) | 25% 26/103 | +1.0% / +10.2% | −37.2% / −39.2% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | IN | May 29, 2026 +14.4% | Exit below $156.43 (−7.8%) | 27% 14/51 | +7.1% / +10.2% | −27.2% / −39.2% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | IN | Jun 4, 2026 +12.5% | Exit below $156.09 (−8.0%) | 10% 23/223 | +4.8% / +10.2% | −26.3% / −39.2% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Jul 2, 2026 +4.0% | Not on one close | 32% 12/37 | +6.4% / +10.2% | −28.4% / −39.2% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Jun 4, 2026 +12.5% | Exit below $156.09 (−8.0%) | 10% 19/181 | +4.9% / +10.2% | −22.5% / −39.2% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | OUT | Sep 18, 2026 +1.1% | Enter above $172.40 (+1.6%) | 40% 57/141 | +6.8% / +10.2% | −17.3% / −39.2% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $169.08 (−0.3%) | 25% 193/775 | +1.7% / +10.2% | −34.6% / −39.2% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −0.5% | Enter above $175.66 (+3.5%) | 36% 91/255 | +4.3% / +10.2% | −25.7% / −39.2% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2025 +19.7% | Not on one close | 35% 9/26 | +6.7% / +10.3% | −30.6% / −39.2% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | IN | Jun 4, 2026 +12.5% | Exit below $161.57 (−4.8%) | 38% 47/125 | +6.5% / +10.2% | −14.6% / −39.2% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | IN | Jun 4, 2026 +12.5% | Exit below $164.47 (−3.1%) | 33% 32/97 | +6.6% / +10.2% | −20.7% / −39.2% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 +2.8% | Enter above $172.72 (+1.8%) | 41% 69/167 | +3.8% / +10.2% | −22.5% / −39.2% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Oct 6, 2026 +1.5% | Not on one close | 43% 136/317 | +4.1% / +10.2% | −24.5% / −39.2% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $170.60 (+0.6%) | 38% 216/576 | +2.7% / +10.2% | −20.2% / −39.2% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −1.4% | Exit below $164.48 (−3.1%) | 44% 88/202 | +6.4% / +10.2% | −19.8% / −39.2% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $165.90 (−2.2%) | 40% 210/519 | +6.5% / +10.2% | −25.4% / −39.2% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 +1.9% | Not on one close | 28% 37/134 | +1.4% / +10.2% | −23.4% / −39.2% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $164.44 (−3.1%) | 37% 65/178 | +6.5% / +10.2% | −19.7% / −39.2% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | OUT | Sep 11, 2026 +3.0% | Enter above $171.32 (+1.0%) | 40% 43/107 | +5.9% / +10.2% | −26.5% / −39.2% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 −0.1% | Exit below $167.45 (−1.3%) | 37% 85/229 | +5.1% / +10.2% | −21.9% / −39.2% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −1.4% | Not on one close | 40% 103/260 | +4.5% / +10.2% | −25.9% / −39.2% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | IN | May 21, 2026 +15.5% | Exit below $163.57 (−3.6%) | 39% 50/128 | +6.6% / +10.2% | −18.9% / −39.2% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | IN | Jun 4, 2026 +12.5% | Exit below $140.56 (−17.2%) | 32% 30/95 | +5.6% / +10.2% | −23.9% / −39.2% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −0.5% | Not on one close | 35% 74/209 | +3.0% / +10.2% | −25.3% / −39.2% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2024 +15.1% | Not on one close | 31% 10/32 | +1.5% / +10.2% | −8.2% / −39.2% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −1.4% | Exit below $165.19 (−2.6%) | 41% 56/135 | +4.4% / +10.2% | −17.9% / −39.2% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 +1.9% | Enter above $175.93 (+3.7%) | 28% 48/170 | +1.9% / +10.2% | −16.6% / −39.2% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 +2.8% | Enter above $175.93 (+3.7%) | 33% 36/110 | +3.5% / +10.2% | −16.0% / −39.2% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 +1.9% | Enter above $175.01 (+3.2%) | 34% 41/120 | +3.7% / +10.2% | −14.8% / −39.2% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −1.4% | Exit below $165.27 (−2.6%) | 34% 38/113 | +2.2% / +10.2% | −24.8% / −39.2% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 +1.9% | Enter above $175.52 (+3.5%) | 37% 59/160 | +2.9% / +10.2% | −15.8% / −39.2% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 +1.9% | Enter above $172.76 (+1.8%) | 33% 69/208 | +2.2% / +10.2% | −16.5% / −39.2% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −1.4% | Exit below $165.07 (−2.7%) | 39% 72/183 | +5.6% / +10.2% | −14.9% / −39.2% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 +1.9% | Enter above $172.84 (+1.9%) | 39% 69/177 | +4.6% / +10.2% | −21.6% / −39.2% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | Aug 22, 2025 +25.4% | Exit below $138.50 (−18.4%) | 39% 9/23 | +7.9% / +10.2% | −22.5% / −39.2% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $166.92 (−1.6%) | 28% 94/337 | +4.2% / +10.2% | −19.1% / −39.2% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Aug 26, 2026 −1.9% | Not on one close | 24% 59/250 | +0.3% / +10.2% | −20.9% / −39.2% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Jul 31, 2026 +4.8% | Enter above $174.48 (+2.8%) | 36% 49/136 | +1.3% / +10.2% | −13.3% / −39.2% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $172.03 (+1.4%) | 31% 232/746 | +0.1% / +10.2% | −34.9% / −39.2% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 15, 2025 +26.5% | Not on one close | 38% 12/32 | +1.9% / +10.2% | −5.4% / −39.2% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | IN | Apr 30, 2026 +17.2% | Exit below $147.12 (−13.3%) | 36% 12/33 | +6.7% / +10.3% | −28.4% / −39.2% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | Dec 31, 2025 +11.0% | Not on one close | 30% 10/33 | +7.5% / +10.3% | −28.4% / −39.2% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | IN | Jul 31, 2026 +4.8% | Exit below $163.58 (−3.6%) | 36% 12/33 | +4.7% / +10.3% | −23.7% / −39.2% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | Jun 30, 2026 +7.3% | Exit below $162.45 (−4.2%) | 21% 33/157 | +5.8% / +10.2% | −31.4% / −39.2% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | IN | Oct 31, 2025 +19.6% | Exit below $148.76 (−12.3%) | 67% 4/6 | +9.3% / +10.2% | −28.4% / −39.2% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | IN | Jul 17, 2026 +5.7% | Exit below $164.99 (−2.8%) | 34% 43/125 | +3.4% / +10.2% | −30.7% / −39.2% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $167.16 (−1.5%) | 33% 150/448 | +3.4% / +10.2% | −26.1% / −39.2% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Oct 7, 2026 +0.5% | Exit below $169.17 (−0.3%) | 30% 233/783 | +1.6% / +10.2% | −32.8% / −39.2% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +1.4% | Enter above $170.67 (+0.6%) | 38% 118/311 | +3.1% / +10.2% | −30.1% / −39.2% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Nov 28, 2025 +9.4% | Not on one close | 43% 3/7 | +10.3% / +10.2% | −28.4% / −39.2% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $171.70 (+1.2%) | 28% 187/662 | +1.6% / +10.2% | −24.2% / −39.2% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | OUT | Sep 2, 2026 −1.5% | Enter above $170.04 (+0.2%) | 38% 102/271 | +3.8% / +10.2% | −26.1% / −39.2% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $164.48 (−3.1%) | 37% 64/172 | +6.5% / +10.2% | −18.8% / −39.2% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | IN | May 29, 2026 +14.4% | Exit below $162.65 (−4.1%) | 38% 28/73 | +6.9% / +10.3% | −23.8% / −39.2% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | Dec 31, 2025 +11.0% | Not on one close | 25% 6/24 | +7.2% / +10.3% | −28.4% / −39.2% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −0.1% | Not on one close | 34% 13/38 | +7.1% / +10.3% | −28.4% / −39.2% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −0.1% | Enter above $170.39 (+0.4%) | 38% 126/335 | +4.7% / +10.2% | −18.5% / −39.2% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Jun 30, 2026 +7.3% | Not on one close | 69% 31/45 | +7.5% / +10.2% | −26.6% / −39.2% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 6, 2026 +1.5% | Buy $156.09–$164.67 (−2.9%) | 63% 229/366 | +3.8% / +10.2% | −16.9% / −39.2% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Buy $156.09–$167.09 (−1.5%) | 64% 289/450 | +6.2% / +10.2% | −12.8% / −39.2% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | May 12, 2026 +17.3% | Buy below $165.22 (−2.6%) | 63% 117/186 | +4.8% / +10.2% | −27.2% / −39.2% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +0.7% | Not on one close | 60% 94/156 | +4.7% / +10.2% | −31.3% / −39.2% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Not on one close | 62% 179/290 | +6.8% / +10.2% | −32.2% / −39.2% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | OUT | Jul 7, 2026 +3.6% | Not on one close | 58% 35/60 | +4.5% / +10.2% | −31.7% / −39.2% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Nov 22, 2004 +763.9% | Sell above $377.28 (+122.4%) | – | +10.2% / +10.2% | −39.2% / −39.2% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Mar 24, 2020 +134.4% | Not on one close | 75% 6/8 | +2.7% / +10.2% | −4.4% / −39.2% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Not on one close | 46% 151/329 | +3.4% / +10.2% | −42.7% / −39.2% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Not on one close | 53% 219/412 | +3.3% / +10.2% | −45.4% / −39.2% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Sell above $169.66 (0.0%) | 55% 924/1693 | +1.7% / +10.2% | −25.1% / −39.2% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Not on one close | 55% 66/120 | +4.9% / +10.2% | −28.1% / −39.2% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $166.90 (−1.6%) | 38% 397/1043 | +5.6% / +10.2% | −35.3% / −39.2% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +0.7% | Sell above $171.82 (+1.3%) | 53% 66/124 | +7.0% / +10.2% | −19.3% / −39.2% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 +0.7% | Not on one close | 27% 204/754 | +2.8% / +10.2% | −27.9% / −39.2% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −1.4% | Not on one close | 37% 67/183 | +2.3% / +10.2% | −32.3% / −39.2% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | IN | Apr 30, 2026 +17.2% | Not on one close | 60% 24/40 | +7.4% / +10.2% | −29.6% / −39.2% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Exit below $166.13 (−2.1%) | 33% 20/61 | +8.0% / +10.2% | −22.7% / −39.2% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $170.32 (+0.4%) | 27% 210/766 | +1.6% / +10.2% | −29.4% / −39.2% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −1.4% | Exit below $163.66 (−3.5%) | 39% 133/344 | +5.4% / +10.2% | −21.2% / −39.2% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 8, 2026 +0.9% | Not on one close | 33% 197/601 | −0.4% / +10.2% | −32.7% / −39.2% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.4% | Not on one close | 29% 38/130 | +5.4% / +10.2% | −28.4% / −39.2% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 +1.5% | Sell $168.46–$170.86 (+0.7%) | 37% 345/939 | +3.7% / +10.2% | −25.0% / −39.2% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Not on one close | 51% 60/117 | +3.7% / +10.2% | −40.0% / −39.2% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Aug 27, 2026 −0.7% | Not on one close | 32% 29/90 | +3.2% / +10.2% | −19.7% / −39.2% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Apr 8, 2026 +14.3% | Not on one close | 37% 22/60 | +2.1% / +10.2% | −12.2% / −39.2% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 +17.2% | Buys Oct 30 | 51% 22/43 | +6.3% / +10.2% | −28.4% / −39.2% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −0.7% | Window opens Apr 1 | 52% 23/44 | +5.9% / +10.2% | −30.0% / −39.2% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | Apr 24, 2026 +18.6% | Window opens Oct 16 | 58% 25/43 | +5.8% / +10.2% | −29.5% / −39.2% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 +10.8% | Buys Dec 23 | 41% 18/44 | +2.2% / +10.2% | −3.9% / −39.2% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 +1.4% | Buys Oct 29 | 49% 256/526 | +3.2% / +10.2% | −12.6% / −39.2% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +0.7% | Sells Jun 30 | 45% 5/11 | +3.7% / +10.2% | −15.4% / −39.2% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −0.7% | Buys Nov 24 | 44% 176/400 | +1.3% / +10.2% | −10.1% / −39.2% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +32.9% | Not on one close | 35% 7/20 | +6.3% / +10.2% | −17.3% / −39.2% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −1.4% | Sells Oct 16 | 52% 1179/2284 | +5.3% / +10.2% | −38.5% / −39.2% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +1.5% | Buys Oct 27 | 43% 151/348 | +1.8% / +10.2% | −5.0% / −39.2% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 +2.1% | Sells Oct 16 | 53% 288/541 | +6.0% / +10.2% | −27.9% / −39.2% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 3, 2005 | Always in | – | +10.2% | −39.2% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureLow0 of 10 points
- Market swings0/3
- Past crashes0/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
Nothing on the checklist stands out.
- Beta0.43Moves about 0.4× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture76%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 76% as much on average.
- Two-year change+14%
- From 52-week high−3%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.