Industrials & materials

Transcontinental (TCL.A)

C$5.66 +5.4% on the day·+112.6% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy79 / 100

Buy: 79 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Trend (+21% vs 200-day) scores 91 and lifts it; Plays in (68%) scores 68 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	TCL.A	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	68%	68	40	27.2
Off the high	−5% from its 1-year high	83	30	24.9
Trend	+21% vs 200-day	91	30	27.3

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for TCL.A

Factor	TCL.A	Points	What it is
Plays in	68%	68	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+24% · 7 analysts	62	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	2.0 · buy	50	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	5.7×	98	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	5.1×	98	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	2.66	20	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	0.2×	100	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	1.1×	91	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	10.2%	99	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	−6%	25	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+4%	20	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	12%	53	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	16%	60	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	1.10×	26	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−5% from its 1-year high	83	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+21% vs 200-day	91	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+113%	94	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	4/10 · moderate	60	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on TCL.A

68 of the 100 plays hold TCL.A right now.
The trend-following, momentum and volume plays mostly say in.
It closed 21% above its 200-day average and 5% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads moderate: it fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes and is up 155% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$7.00, 24% above the close (7 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in68 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureModerate4 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.21×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+21%). Higher than on 88% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about TCL.A now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn TCL.A: right 22 of 48 · Out since Jun 4, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn TCL.A: right 34 of 106 · Out since Sep 9, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn TCL.A: right 12 of 23 · In since Jul 31, 2024 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn TCL.A: right 127 of 194 · Out since Sep 22, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexIN59% of 13,925 calls rightOn TCL.A: right 38 of 61 · In since Sep 16, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn TCL.A: right 84 of 196 · In since Oct 6, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn TCL.A: right 22 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

TCL.A, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved TCL.A lately

Its 3 biggest moves against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Oct 13+4.5% against the S&P/TSX2.3× a normal day

TCL.A +5.4%, the S&P/TSX +0.9% that session.

HeadlineGuruFocus · Oct 12, 3:30 am ET
Germany Stocks: Research Stocks from Germany Stock Market

Fri Sep 11+4.8% against the S&P/TSX2.1× a normal day

TCL.A +5.3%, the S&P/TSX +0.5% that session; +4.9% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on TCL.A was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for TCL.A starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved +0.5%. The 52 other Industrials & materials stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.5% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Thu Sep 10−6.7% against the S&P/TSX3.2× a normal day

TCL.A −7.8%, the S&P/TSX −1.1% that session; −0.7% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on TCL.A was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for TCL.A starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −1.1%. The 52 other Industrials & materials stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.2% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Wed Dec 9, 2026

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 0.42.

Over its last 12 reports, TCL.A's typical move against the S&P/TSX at the first close after the report was ±2.4% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 6 times.
TCL.A after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 24 of 27 times (median +3.3%).
TCL.A after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 11 of 13 times (median −5.0%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on TCL.A

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following25 of 30 in Breakouts & channels8 of 15 in Momentum16 of 17 in Mean reversion6 of 15 in Volume & money flow8 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on TCL.A went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +8.0%	Exit below C$5.29 (−6.6%)	24% 148/625	−0.9% / +7.2%	−71.2% / −78.7%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +5.4%	Exit below C$5.15 (−9.1%)	28% 28/99	+6.6% / +7.2%	−52.2% / −78.7%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +7.0%	Exit below C$5.27 (−6.9%)	25% 85/335	+6.0% / +7.2%	−62.8% / −78.7%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +7.0%	Exit below C$5.28 (−6.7%)	17% 25/143	+4.0% / +7.2%	−32.7% / −78.7%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Dec 12, 2025 +72.9%	Exit below C$5.29 (−6.5%)	24% 16/67	+7.6% / +7.2%	−35.8% / −78.7%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Dec 12, 2025 +72.9%	Exit below C$5.29 (−6.5%)	31% 28/91	+4.8% / +7.2%	−45.2% / −78.7%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Dec 29, 2023 +248.2%	Exit below C$4.84 (−14.4%)	33% 13/39	+9.4% / +7.2%	−54.2% / −78.7%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Dec 14, 2023 +270.4%	Exit below C$4.68 (−17.3%)	14% 23/161	+8.9% / +7.2%	−41.3% / −78.7%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Jan 30, 2024 +248.7%	Not on one close	33% 9/27	+7.9% / +7.2%	−58.3% / −78.7%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Jan 11, 2024 +239.9%	Exit below C$4.68 (−17.3%)	19% 15/77	+10.4% / +7.2%	−35.4% / −78.7%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 +11.6%	Enter above C$5.30 (−6.4%)	40% 52/131	+6.5% / +7.2%	−57.8% / −78.7%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +8.0%	Exit below C$5.31 (−6.2%)	22% 167/743	−0.4% / +7.2%	−83.0% / −78.7%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +6.4%	Exit below C$4.22 (−25.4%)	39% 91/234	+7.3% / +7.2%	−66.5% / −78.7%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Jan 16, 2024 +240.9%	Not on one close	42% 10/24	+9.9% / +6.8%	−35.6% / −78.7%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +5.4%	Exit below C$4.92 (−13.2%)	29% 34/117	+7.8% / +7.2%	−38.7% / −78.7%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$5.42 (−4.3%)	29% 30/103	+7.8% / +7.2%	−45.7% / −78.7%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$5.11 (−9.7%)	37% 49/131	+5.8% / +7.2%	−60.2% / −78.7%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +6.4%	Not on one close	41% 118/287	+6.4% / +7.2%	−64.0% / −78.7%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +7.4%	Exit below C$4.76 (−15.9%)	33% 170/513	+6.1% / +7.2%	−66.5% / −78.7%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	37% 79/212	+8.8% / +7.2%	−48.5% / −78.7%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +5.4%	Exit below C$5.19 (−8.4%)	37% 174/473	+0.4% / +7.2%	−65.6% / −78.7%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jul 24, 2026 +6.8%	Not on one close	34% 60/174	+2.8% / +7.2%	−38.7% / −78.7%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +5.4%	Exit below C$4.78 (−15.5%)	33% 55/169	+9.2% / +7.2%	−42.0% / −78.7%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +5.4%	Exit below C$5.16 (−8.9%)	35% 69/198	+6.2% / +7.2%	−57.2% / −78.7%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +7.0%	Exit below C$1.82 (−67.8%)	31% 70/228	+4.6% / +7.2%	−63.3% / −78.7%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 +7.2%	Not on one close	42% 79/190	+6.8% / +7.2%	−63.3% / −78.7%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +5.4%	Exit below C$4.81 (−15.0%)	33% 51/155	+10.1% / +7.2%	−34.8% / −78.7%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$4.96 (−12.5%)	26% 25/95	+5.5% / +7.2%	−54.7% / −78.7%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +8.0%	Exit below C$5.14 (−9.2%)	38% 73/193	+2.4% / +7.2%	−45.2% / −78.7%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jun 4, 2026 +22.4%	Not on one close	46% 22/48	+0.8% / +7.2%	−20.1% / −78.7%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Jun 24, 2026 +5.6%	Exit below C$4.98 (−12.0%)	37% 43/116	+6.2% / +7.2%	−54.0% / −78.7%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 +7.2%	Enter above C$5.78 (+2.2%)	34% 37/110	+7.8% / +7.2%	−33.2% / −78.7%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +5.4%	Enter above C$5.78 (+2.2%)	38% 33/86	+5.1% / +7.2%	−38.7% / −78.7%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Sep 3, 2026 +8.2%	Enter above C$5.70 (+0.6%)	32% 26/82	+4.1% / +7.2%	−36.8% / −78.7%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Aug 6, 2026 +8.6%	Enter above C$5.78 (+2.2%)	38% 43/112	+4.1% / +7.2%	−60.7% / −78.7%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$5.29 (−6.6%)	30% 31/103	+3.5% / +7.2%	−30.8% / −78.7%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +5.4%	Exit below C$5.25 (−7.3%)	35% 71/205	+4.2% / +7.2%	−37.6% / −78.7%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +5.4%	Exit below C$5.21 (−8.0%)	36% 61/171	+8.4% / +7.2%	−51.1% / −78.7%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +6.4%	Exit below C$5.25 (−7.3%)	37% 55/150	+5.6% / +7.2%	−58.0% / −78.7%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +8.4%	Enter above C$5.83 (+2.9%)	32% 34/106	+4.8% / +7.2%	−45.3% / −78.7%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +5.4%	Exit below C$5.32 (−6.0%)	25% 76/305	+6.1% / +7.2%	−59.8% / −78.7%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 24, 2026 +0.4%	Enter above C$5.56 (−1.7%)	32% 30/94	+2.3% / +7.2%	−21.7% / −78.7%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$3.66 (−35.3%)	38% 64/167	+4.6% / +7.2%	−15.3% / −78.7%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +7.0%	Exit below C$5.20 (−8.1%)	31% 219/697	−6.2% / +7.2%	−82.5% / −78.7%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 +9.8%	Not on one close	38% 15/40	+2.2% / +7.2%	−15.1% / −78.7%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Jun 28, 2024 +201.1%	Exit below C$2.85 (−49.7%)	33% 7/21	+7.0% / +7.2%	−36.6% / −78.7%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2024 +179.3%	Not on one close	52% 12/23	+8.6% / +7.2%	−38.3% / −78.7%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2024 +179.3%	Exit below C$3.17 (−44.1%)	40% 14/35	+5.6% / +7.2%	−41.2% / −78.7%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +7.0%	Exit below C$5.26 (−7.0%)	22% 30/139	+4.4% / +7.2%	−41.5% / −78.7%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Feb 29, 2024 +227.3%	Exit below C$5.06 (−10.5%)	32% 8/25	+4.2% / +7.2%	−52.6% / −78.7%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +6.4%	Enter above C$5.47 (−3.3%)	29% 34/116	+4.2% / +7.2%	−42.1% / −78.7%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +7.8%	Exit below C$4.81 (−15.0%)	35% 146/419	+3.3% / +7.2%	−68.5% / −78.7%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +8.0%	Exit below C$5.32 (−6.0%)	27% 222/811	−2.5% / +7.2%	−85.1% / −78.7%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +9.5%	Exit below C$4.15 (−26.7%)	40% 117/291	+7.1% / +7.2%	−49.9% / −78.7%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Dec 29, 2023 +248.2%	Not on one close	37% 7/19	+10.5% / +8.7%	−58.6% / −74.4%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +7.0%	Exit below C$5.22 (−7.8%)	27% 163/611	−0.8% / +7.2%	−53.1% / −78.7%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +7.4%	Exit below C$3.08 (−45.7%)	41% 98/237	+6.7% / +7.2%	−59.4% / −78.7%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +5.4%	Exit below C$4.78 (−15.6%)	32% 53/167	+9.3% / +7.2%	−41.1% / −78.7%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Aug 29, 2025 +101.7%	Exit below C$5.00 (−11.6%)	35% 29/83	+6.0% / +7.2%	−60.8% / −78.7%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2024 +179.3%	Not on one close	44% 8/18	+7.7% / +8.1%	−48.6% / −74.4%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +7.0%	Not on one close	48% 14/29	+4.0% / +7.2%	−50.3% / −78.7%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +6.4%	Exit below C$4.63 (−18.2%)	37% 111/303	+6.9% / +7.2%	−61.6% / −78.7%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Jun 5, 2026 +14.0%	Not on one close	65% 24/37	+2.1% / +7.2%	−75.6% / −78.7%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 +12.0%	Not on one close	60% 139/232	+2.2% / +7.2%	−51.2% / −78.7%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +7.0%	Buy C$4.68–C$5.17 (−8.7%)	62% 202/324	+6.2% / +7.2%	−59.2% / −78.7%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +7.8%	Buy below C$4.96 (−12.4%)	65% 127/194	+3.1% / +7.2%	−59.1% / −78.7%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +8.4%	Exit below C$5.57 (−1.6%)	58% 78/134	+0.7% / +7.2%	−78.7% / −78.7%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +8.2%	Not on one close	56% 135/240	−1.6% / +7.2%	−82.4% / −78.7%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Aug 13, 2026 +8.0%	Not on one close	67% 52/78	+11.6% / +7.2%	−59.0% / −78.7%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +343.7%	Sell above C$11.31 (+99.9%)	–	+7.2% / +7.2%	−78.7% / −78.7%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Mar 25, 2020 +385.7%	Not on one close	78% 14/18	+2.5% / +7.2%	−13.4% / −78.7%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +9.5%	Not on one close	48% 146/304	+0.8% / +7.2%	−68.8% / −78.7%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 +10.5%	Not on one close	53% 235/443	−2.5% / +7.2%	−87.8% / −78.7%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +9.5%	Buy below C$5.66 (0.0%)	60% 1103/1853	+8.5% / +7.2%	−49.5% / −78.7%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +5.4%	Not on one close	53% 35/66	+0.8% / +7.2%	−49.2% / −78.7%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 7, 2026 +7.0%	Exit below C$5.19 (−8.3%)	36% 397/1115	−2.9% / +7.2%	−67.8% / −78.7%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +7.0%	Sell above C$5.34 (−5.7%)	62% 85/136	+3.0% / +7.2%	−67.0% / −78.7%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +10.1%	Not on one close	29% 193/667	−0.5% / +7.2%	−80.1% / −78.7%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +10.1%	Not on one close	37% 72/195	+1.9% / +7.2%	−73.4% / −78.7%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +10.5%	Not on one close	62% 38/61	+4.8% / +7.2%	−73.5% / −78.7%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Jun 22, 2026 +8.0%	Exit below C$5.16 (−8.9%)	38% 46/122	+5.4% / +7.4%	−56.6% / −78.7%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +8.0%	Exit below C$5.36 (−5.3%)	28% 187/661	+3.1% / +7.2%	−75.1% / −78.7%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +9.3%	Exit below C$4.43 (−21.7%)	39% 130/331	+10.4% / +7.2%	−48.0% / −78.7%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 18, 2026 +10.1%	Not on one close	36% 188/523	−3.0% / +7.2%	−66.5% / −78.7%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +8.4%	Not on one close	38% 32/84	+6.9% / +7.5%	−52.9% / −78.7%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +8.0%	Not on one close	37% 315/855	−0.6% / +7.2%	−74.9% / −78.7%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +8.0%	Exit below C$5.40 (−4.6%)	43% 84/196	−2.9% / +7.2%	−81.4% / −78.7%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2026 +17.6%	Not on one close	37% 35/95	−0.5% / +7.2%	−52.6% / −78.7%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jul 21, 2025 +104.7%	Not on one close	40% 19/48	+0.7% / +7.2%	−23.9% / −78.7%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +8.6%	Buys Oct 30	51% 22/43	+6.8% / +7.2%	−58.7% / −78.7%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 14, 2026 +0.3%	Not on one close	59% 26/44	+6.5% / +7.2%	−63.7% / −78.7%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 +9.8%	Window opens Oct 16	56% 24/43	+6.0% / +7.2%	−59.8% / −78.7%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +79.0%	Buys Dec 23	55% 24/44	+3.7% / +7.2%	−7.7% / −78.7%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +9.5%	Buys Oct 29	53% 277/526	+5.2% / +7.2%	−31.0% / −78.7%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +8.2%	Sells Jun 30	45% 5/11	+0.9% / +7.2%	−56.2% / −78.7%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +6.4%	Buys Nov 24	51% 195/386	+4.7% / +7.2%	−8.2% / −78.7%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +233.7%	Not on one close	35% 7/20	+3.9% / +7.2%	−67.5% / −78.7%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	51% 1174/2284	+2.8% / +7.2%	−73.0% / −78.7%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +10.5%	Buys Oct 27	46% 161/348	+1.4% / +7.2%	−18.2% / −78.7%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +8.4%	Sells Oct 16	50% 270/541	+4.0% / +7.2%	−69.8% / −78.7%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 4, 2005	Always in	–	+7.2%	−78.7%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureModerate4 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes2/2
Debt0/3
Run-up2/2

It fell about 1.5× as far as its index in past crashes.
It is up 155% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high Oct 2013

TCL.A−73%

TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Oct 2020

TCL.A−44%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to May 2022 · back to its old high Sep 2024

TCL.A−26%

TSX−14%

Beta0.89Moves about 0.9× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture−447%In months the TSX fell, this fell -447% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+155%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−5%
Debt to equity0.24×
Net debt / EBITDA1.1×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover6.1×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Packaging & Containers · Transcontinental Inc. engages in the flexible packaging business in Canada, the United States, Latin America, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Packaging, Retail Services and Printing, and Media segments. The Packaging sector engages in the extrusion, lamination, printing, and converting packaging solutions; and manufacturing and recycling flexible plastic, including rollstock, labels, die cut lids, shrink films, bags and pouches, and advanced coatings.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$474M	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	C$2.7B	Total sales. The market values it at 0.2× sales.
P/E ratio	5.7×	Buyers pay C$6 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	5.1×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	1.1×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	12.1%	Keeps 12¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+3.8%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	−5.7%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	15.6%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	C$594M	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	C$1.9B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	C$461M	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	C$14.7M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.24×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	6.1×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$7.00	24% above the close, from 7 analysts (range C$6.00 to C$8.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	10.24%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

TCL.A: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Industrials & materials: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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