Energy & power

TransAlta (TA)

C$18.78 0.0% on the day·−12.7% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Hold47 / 100

Hold: 47 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Trend (+5% vs 200-day) scores 60 and lifts it; Off the high (−23% from its 1-year high) scores 23 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	TA	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	55%	55	40	22.0
Off the high	−23% from its 1-year high	23	30	6.9
Trend	+5% vs 200-day	60	30	18.0

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for TA

Factor	TA	Points	What it is
Plays in	55%	55	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+25% · 11 analysts	64	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.8 · buy	59	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	loss	0	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	31.7×	11	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	6.98	7	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	2.6×	63	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	7.1×	25	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	1.5%	41	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	–	–	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher.
Revenue growth	+12%	46	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	−1%	13	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	−1%	14	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	2.29×	7	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−23% from its 1-year high	23	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+5% vs 200-day	60	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	−13%	22	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	4/10 · moderate	60	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on TA

55 of the 100 plays hold TA right now.
The volume plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion plays mostly say out.
It closed 5% above its 200-day average and 23% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads moderate: it fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes and carries 3.0× as much debt as equity.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$23.50, 25% above the close (11 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in55 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureModerate4 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.05×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+5%). Higher than on 63% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about TA now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn TA: right 30 of 58 · Out since Sep 10, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn TA: right 21 of 62 · In since Oct 2, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn TA: right 18 of 37 · Out since Sep 30, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn TA: right 114 of 180 · Out since Sep 17, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn TA: right 51 of 72 · Out since May 25, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn TA: right 65 of 141 · In since Jun 30, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn TA: right 23 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

TA, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved TA lately

Its 3 biggest moves against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Oct 6+4.4% against the S&P/TSX2.0× a normal day

TA +4.8%, the S&P/TSX +0.4% that session; +4.3% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

HeadlineStock Titan · Oct 6, 1:50 pm ET
Results arrive before markets open November 3 for TransAlta (TAC), with a 10 a.m. Eastern call.
Headlinekalkine.ca · Oct 6, 11:44 am ET
Capital Power Corporation (TSX:CPX) Jumps +2.54% as Investors Focus on Ai-Linked Electricity Demand
HeadlineStock Traders Daily · Oct 5, 5:59 pm ET
(TA) Market Performance Analysis (TA:CA)
Acquisition newskalkine.ca · Oct 6, 11:41 pm ETafter that close
Emera, Canadian Utilities and ATCO Merger: Why the $72 Billion Utility Deal Is in Focus (TSX:EMA, TSX:CU, TSX:ACO)
After acquisition headlines, stocks did better than their index at the first close after the news 58% of the time (47 of 81 on 55 stocks; median move +0.3%). No direction was expected. Low predictability Early read

Wed Sep 16+4.7% against the S&P/TSX2.3× a normal day

TA +4.4%, the S&P/TSX −0.3% that session; +2.8% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on TA was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for TA starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.3%. The 58 other Energy & power stocks Be The Puck covers moved −1.6% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Tue Sep 8+4.5% against the S&P/TSX2.0× a normal day

TA +3.4%, the S&P/TSX −1.1% that session; +1.3% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on TA was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for TA starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −1.1%. The 58 other Energy & power stocks Be The Puck covers moved +1.0% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Tue Nov 3, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 0.09.

Over its last 12 reports, TA's typical move against the S&P/TSX at the first close after the report was ±5.3% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 9 times.
TA after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 18 of 22 times (median +2.4%).
TA after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 16 of 24 times (median −0.9%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on TA

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following20 of 30 in Breakouts & channels10 of 15 in Momentum9 of 17 in Mean reversion3 of 15 in Volume & money flow8 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on TA went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +9.1%	Exit below C$17.63 (−6.1%)	30% 163/538	+9.3% / +3.9%	−45.1% / −84.1%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$17.71 (−5.7%)	22% 25/112	+2.7% / +3.9%	−64.2% / −84.1%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +8.2%	Exit below C$17.50 (−6.8%)	28% 92/326	+5.6% / +3.9%	−47.4% / −84.1%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Nov 13, 2025 −5.8%	Enter above C$71.82 (+282.4%)	21% 20/95	+0.0% / +3.6%	−37.1% / −84.1%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +7.4%	Enter above C$17.97 (−4.3%)	14% 15/109	−2.8% / +3.9%	−78.5% / −84.1%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Apr 17, 2026 +9.0%	Enter above C$20.10 (+7.0%)	21% 18/87	−0.4% / +3.9%	−61.8% / −84.1%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +7.4%	Enter above C$17.91 (−4.6%)	25% 13/53	+0.3% / +3.9%	−78.3% / −84.1%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +0.8%	Exit below C$17.82 (−5.1%)	15% 32/212	+1.2% / +3.9%	−59.7% / −84.1%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 +12.3%	Enter above C$59.74 (+218.1%)	27% 11/41	−1.7% / +3.9%	−82.0% / −84.1%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2026 +4.8%	Enter above C$43.44 (+131.3%)	15% 23/156	−0.5% / +3.9%	−63.4% / −84.1%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +6.8%	Exit below C$14.74 (−21.5%)	40% 57/142	+0.7% / +3.9%	−71.3% / −84.1%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +9.1%	Exit below C$18.22 (−3.0%)	30% 202/684	+11.4% / +3.9%	−33.5% / −84.1%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +10.1%	Exit below C$10.91 (−41.9%)	39% 95/246	+7.7% / +3.9%	−69.3% / −84.1%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$16.51 (−12.1%)	22% 7/32	+1.4% / +3.9%	−67.3% / −84.1%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +2.4%	Exit below C$15.20 (−19.1%)	26% 36/136	+1.5% / +3.9%	−58.3% / −84.1%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$17.02 (−9.4%)	28% 33/120	+2.4% / +3.9%	−66.5% / −84.1%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +5.6%	Exit below C$17.04 (−9.3%)	39% 58/148	+5.7% / +3.9%	−57.8% / −84.1%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	42% 123/290	+3.1% / +3.9%	−73.0% / −84.1%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +9.1%	Exit below C$14.84 (−21.0%)	34% 164/478	+7.2% / +3.9%	−60.2% / −84.1%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +6.8%	Exit below C$15.96 (−15.0%)	36% 77/212	+3.4% / +3.9%	−67.0% / −84.1%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +8.2%	Exit below C$17.25 (−8.2%)	39% 191/490	+4.3% / +3.9%	−79.8% / −84.1%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 4, 2026 +4.8%	Enter above C$23.68 (+26.1%)	40% 63/159	+6.4% / +3.9%	−46.6% / −84.1%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +6.8%	Exit below C$13.16 (−29.9%)	33% 59/180	+3.6% / +3.9%	−59.7% / −84.1%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +6.8%	Exit below C$18.03 (−4.0%)	40% 77/194	+5.5% / +3.9%	−71.5% / −84.1%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +6.8%	Exit below C$14.16 (−24.6%)	33% 72/218	+3.6% / +3.9%	−63.2% / −84.1%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Jul 14, 2026 −3.7%	Not on one close	43% 93/215	+4.1% / +3.9%	−67.7% / −84.1%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +5.6%	Exit below C$13.72 (−26.9%)	35% 58/166	+3.3% / +3.9%	−58.3% / −84.1%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$15.44 (−17.8%)	29% 31/108	+1.6% / +3.9%	−73.3% / −84.1%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +15.2%	Not on one close	37% 71/193	+0.8% / +3.9%	−57.8% / −84.1%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 10, 2025 +8.4%	Not on one close	52% 30/58	+2.1% / +3.9%	−27.5% / −84.1%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +5.6%	Exit below C$15.96 (−15.0%)	35% 48/138	+2.2% / +3.9%	−66.1% / −84.1%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jul 16, 2026 +1.4%	Enter above C$19.80 (+5.4%)	33% 40/123	+4.3% / +3.9%	−40.8% / −84.1%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Jun 4, 2026 +4.8%	Enter above C$19.80 (+5.4%)	29% 27/93	+2.1% / +3.9%	−45.4% / −84.1%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jul 16, 2026 +1.4%	Enter above C$27.53 (+46.6%)	31% 28/89	+2.7% / +3.9%	−45.3% / −84.1%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2026 +4.8%	Not on one close	36% 36/99	+4.0% / +3.9%	−53.1% / −84.1%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 +0.8%	Exit below C$17.66 (−6.0%)	36% 50/138	+3.9% / +3.9%	−51.9% / −84.1%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +5.6%	Exit below C$17.44 (−7.1%)	34% 73/214	+3.6% / +3.9%	−41.7% / −84.1%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +8.2%	Exit below C$17.32 (−7.8%)	40% 68/172	+8.3% / +3.9%	−32.5% / −84.1%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +6.8%	Exit below C$17.19 (−8.5%)	38% 67/178	+5.6% / +3.9%	−52.2% / −84.1%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +6.8%	Exit below C$16.00 (−14.8%)	34% 21/62	+7.3% / +3.9%	−54.0% / −84.1%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +6.8%	Exit below C$17.31 (−7.8%)	29% 89/310	+8.1% / +3.9%	−44.1% / −84.1%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$18.67 (−0.6%)	36% 56/157	+5.0% / +3.9%	−13.7% / −84.1%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	IN	Sep 21, 2026 +8.6%	Exit below C$9.90 (−47.3%)	42% 58/138	+3.6% / +3.9%	−25.2% / −84.1%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +11.8%	Exit below C$16.51 (−12.1%)	34% 218/634	+7.8% / +3.9%	−50.7% / −84.1%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 22, 2025 +14.2%	Not on one close	42% 16/38	+2.4% / +3.9%	−17.9% / −84.1%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +12.5%	Enter above C$25.33 (+34.9%)	38% 11/29	+5.2% / +3.6%	−50.8% / −84.1%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +9.1%	Not on one close	49% 18/37	+3.4% / +3.6%	−57.8% / −84.1%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +7.4%	Enter above C$28.17 (+50.0%)	31% 9/29	+0.8% / +3.6%	−61.2% / −84.1%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Jul 28, 2026 +4.8%	Not on one close	15% 24/155	+1.9% / +3.9%	−53.6% / −84.1%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Nov 28, 2025 −6.2%	Enter above C$23.18 (+23.4%)	35% 8/23	−1.5% / +3.9%	−79.5% / −84.1%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	IN	Oct 9, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$18.62 (−0.9%)	28% 31/112	+1.1% / +3.9%	−55.0% / −84.1%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 8, 2026 +9.8%	Exit below C$15.59 (−17.0%)	36% 155/430	+5.8% / +3.9%	−64.2% / −84.1%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +11.8%	Exit below C$17.91 (−4.6%)	33% 224/688	+9.1% / +3.9%	−54.9% / −84.1%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Aug 26, 2026 +7.5%	Exit below C$10.03 (−46.6%)	42% 124/292	+5.0% / +3.9%	−67.5% / −84.1%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Aug 30, 2024 +63.2%	Exit below C$4.94 (−73.7%)	21% 6/29	+0.5% / +2.7%	−66.5% / −84.1%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +8.2%	Exit below C$18.27 (−2.7%)	31% 169/546	+6.8% / +3.9%	−29.1% / −84.1%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 +10.1%	Not on one close	42% 105/252	+6.0% / +3.9%	−66.3% / −84.1%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +6.8%	Exit below C$13.03 (−30.6%)	32% 57/178	+3.4% / +3.9%	−61.1% / −84.1%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Jul 31, 2026 +7.4%	Enter above C$17.50 (−6.8%)	27% 30/111	−3.0% / +3.6%	−83.9% / −84.1%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +9.1%	Not on one close	52% 16/31	+3.5% / +2.3%	−50.8% / −84.1%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +9.1%	Not on one close	51% 18/35	+4.7% / +3.6%	−57.6% / −84.1%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +12.3%	Exit below C$13.39 (−28.7%)	36% 121/334	+8.6% / +3.9%	−68.1% / −84.1%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	May 27, 2026 −1.1%	Not on one close	65% 30/46	+2.2% / +3.9%	−78.8% / −84.1%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Jul 20, 2026 −2.4%	Not on one close	57% 152/268	+0.1% / +3.9%	−41.0% / −84.1%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Jul 21, 2026 −4.3%	Not on one close	57% 182/322	−1.9% / +3.9%	−76.8% / −84.1%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 17, 2026 +9.3%	Buy below C$15.68 (−16.5%)	63% 114/180	+0.5% / +3.9%	−60.1% / −84.1%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +11.7%	Not on one close	67% 113/168	+5.0% / +3.9%	−56.8% / −84.1%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +11.7%	Not on one close	61% 162/264	−1.7% / +3.9%	−62.6% / −84.1%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	May 26, 2026 −3.0%	Not on one close	62% 55/88	+2.0% / +3.9%	−65.3% / −84.1%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +137.6%	Sell above C$43.08 (+129.4%)	–	+3.9% / +3.9%	−84.1% / −84.1%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2023 +67.5%	Not on one close	62% 15/24	+2.1% / +3.9%	−27.0% / −84.1%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +9.1%	Exit below C$17.84 (−5.0%)	47% 138/296	−0.4% / +3.9%	−76.1% / −84.1%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +11.7%	Not on one close	56% 240/430	+0.7% / +3.9%	−56.6% / −84.1%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +2.4%	Buy below C$18.78 (0.0%)	56% 909/1632	−4.0% / +3.9%	−76.9% / −84.1%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Jan 20, 2026 +6.4%	Not on one close	43% 33/76	−3.1% / +3.9%	−71.6% / −84.1%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +9.1%	Exit below C$18.14 (−3.4%)	38% 391/1035	+8.1% / +3.9%	−53.4% / −84.1%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +9.1%	Buy below C$17.57 (−6.5%)	60% 78/130	+2.4% / +3.9%	−75.9% / −84.1%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +8.2%	Not on one close	30% 187/626	+6.5% / +3.9%	−61.1% / −84.1%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 5, 2026 +5.6%	Not on one close	39% 78/202	−2.9% / +3.9%	−88.2% / −84.1%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	May 25, 2026 +0.4%	Not on one close	71% 51/72	+4.5% / +3.9%	−70.8% / −84.1%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Sep 10, 2025 +8.4%	Exit below C$18.05 (−3.9%)	30% 30/99	−1.2% / +3.7%	−60.8% / −84.1%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +11.8%	Exit below C$17.67 (−5.9%)	30% 194/638	+8.0% / +3.9%	−43.8% / −84.1%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +8.2%	Exit below C$11.98 (−36.2%)	39% 132/336	+8.0% / +3.9%	−49.1% / −84.1%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +12.1%	Not on one close	40% 216/546	+4.8% / +3.9%	−66.0% / −84.1%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Jun 19, 2026 −3.4%	Not on one close	32% 33/102	+0.7% / +3.7%	−78.2% / −84.1%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Sep 16, 2026 +12.3%	Not on one close	36% 308/857	+8.1% / +3.9%	−59.7% / −84.1%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Jun 30, 2026 −3.9%	Exit below C$18.53 (−1.3%)	46% 65/141	+0.9% / +3.9%	−78.7% / −84.1%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 +10.3%	Enter above C$18.80 (+0.1%)	30% 31/103	−3.8% / +3.9%	−69.3% / −84.1%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 +12.9%	Not on one close	44% 29/66	+1.1% / +3.9%	−27.1% / −84.1%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +11.8%	Buys Oct 30	53% 23/43	+2.3% / +3.9%	−60.3% / −84.1%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 15, 2026 +1.0%	Not on one close	37% 16/43	+0.1% / +3.9%	−64.9% / −84.1%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 +9.4%	Window opens Oct 16	49% 21/43	+2.0% / +3.9%	−58.8% / −84.1%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +7.3%	Buys Dec 23	55% 24/44	+2.8% / +3.9%	−12.7% / −84.1%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +5.6%	Buys Oct 29	47% 249/526	+0.6% / +3.9%	−58.7% / −84.1%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +9.1%	Sells Jun 30	55% 6/11	+2.5% / +3.9%	−37.1% / −84.1%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +13.5%	Buys Nov 24	51% 195/386	+1.8% / +3.9%	−17.6% / −84.1%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +65.8%	Not on one close	55% 11/20	+5.4% / +3.9%	−44.2% / −84.1%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	51% 1162/2284	+3.3% / +3.9%	−82.2% / −84.1%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +12.3%	Buys Oct 27	50% 173/348	+2.5% / +3.9%	−6.7% / −84.1%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +6.8%	Sells Oct 16	48% 259/541	+3.2% / +3.9%	−59.0% / −84.1%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 4, 2005	Always in	–	+3.9%	−84.1%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureModerate4 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes1/2
Debt3/3
Run-up0/2

It fell about 1.2× as far as its index in past crashes.
It carries 3.0× as much debt as equity.
It operating profit covers interest only 0.5×.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 · back to its old high Nov 2024

TA−37%

TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jan 2021

TA−50%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 · back to its old high Aug 2023

TA−23%

TSX−14%

Beta0.97Moves about 1.0× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture−23%In months the TSX fell, this fell -23% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+36%
From 52-week high−23%
Debt to equity3.03×
Net debt / EBITDA4.6×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover0.5×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Utilities - Independent Power Producers · TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, and Energy Marketing segments. The Hydro segment holds interest of approximately 922 megawatts (MW) located in Alberta and Canada. The Wind and Solar segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 2,587 MW located in Alberta, Canada, the Unites States, and Western Australia, as well as battery storage facilities.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$5.9B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	C$2.3B	Total sales. The market values it at 2.6× sales.
P/E ratio	n/a	Lost money over the last year, so there is no profit to divide by.
Forward P/E	31.7×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	7.1×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	−1.0%	Spends more than it brings in.
Revenue growth	+12.5%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Return on equity	−1.4%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	C$291M	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	C$1.4B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	C$4.2B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	C$302M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	3.03×	Above about 1.5× is heavily borrowed; above 3× is fragile in a downturn.
Interest cover	0.5×	Operating profit divided by interest. Under 2× means one bad year could make the interest hard to pay.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$23.50	25% above the close, from 11 analysts (range C$14.00 to C$28.00).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	1.49%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

TA: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Energy & power: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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