Indexes & ETFs
Silver ETF (SLV)
Your signal
Sell13 / 100
Sell: 13 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Plays in (23%) scores 23 and lifts it; Off the high (−49% from its 1-year high) scores 0 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | SLV | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 23% | 23 | 40 | 9.2 |
| Off the high | −49% from its 1-year high | 0 | 30 | 0.0 |
| Trend | −19% vs 200-day | 11 | 30 | 3.3 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for SLV
| Factor | SLV | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 23% | 23 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −49% from its 1-year high | 0 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | −19% vs 200-day | 11 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +13% | 49 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 0/10 · low | 100 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on SLV- 23 of the 100 plays hold SLV right now.
- The trend-following, breakout, volume and pattern plays mostly say out.
- It closed 19% below its 200-day average and 49% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in23 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple0.81×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−19%). Higher than on 5% of days since 2007. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about SLV now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn SLV: right 10 of 26 · Out since Feb 5, 2026Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn SLV: right 29 of 84 · Out since Sep 14, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn SLV: right 15 of 31 · In since May 31, 2024Mean reversionBollinger ReversionIN64% of 53,095 calls rightOn SLV: right 100 of 169 · In since Sep 28, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn SLV: right 23 of 34 · Out since Jul 17, 2023Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn SLV: right 42 of 70 · Out since Aug 28, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn SLV: right 23 of 40 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
SLV, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on SLV
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following2 of 30 inBreakouts & channels0 of 15 inMomentum6 of 17 inMean reversion10 of 15 inVolume & money flow1 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns0 of 3 inCalendar4 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on SLV went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2006. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −8.0% | Enter above $55.83 (+4.4%) | 28% 151/538 | +10.6% / +8.2% | −42.3% / −76.3% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −8.0% | Enter above $58.90 (+10.1%) | 19% 25/131 | −0.2% / +7.2% | −77.4% / −76.3% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −8.0% | Enter above $57.08 (+6.7%) | 24% 90/374 | +4.6% / +8.1% | −57.6% / −76.3% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | OUT | May 15, 2026 −22.5% | Not on one close | 23% 28/120 | +3.0% / +7.5% | −50.9% / −76.3% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Jun 5, 2026 −13.1% | Enter above $127.48 (+138.3%) | 21% 15/71 | +6.9% / +7.6% | −59.0% / −76.3% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | OUT | Jun 5, 2026 −13.1% | Enter above $68.75 (+28.5%) | 29% 23/78 | +7.0% / +7.2% | −47.9% / −76.3% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | OUT | Jun 30, 2026 +0.0% | Enter above $64.89 (+21.3%) | 27% 11/41 | +5.4% / +7.2% | −60.0% / −76.3% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | OUT | Jun 17, 2026 −11.7% | Enter above $65.64 (+22.7%) | 16% 26/167 | +6.6% / +7.1% | −61.8% / −76.3% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | OUT | Jul 15, 2026 +2.5% | Not on one close | 36% 9/25 | +6.5% / +7.1% | −58.1% / −76.3% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Jun 17, 2026 −11.7% | Enter above $83.96 (+57.0%) | 19% 16/84 | +9.8% / +7.5% | −44.8% / −76.3% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | OUT | Oct 2, 2026 −2.3% | Enter above $66.03 (+23.5%) | 33% 43/129 | +5.0% / +8.2% | −66.9% / −76.3% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −8.0% | Enter above $56.17 (+5.0%) | 25% 184/750 | +5.3% / +8.5% | −51.6% / −76.3% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above $68.88 (+28.8%) | 45% 94/211 | +9.7% / +7.0% | −41.5% / −76.3% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | Aug 12, 2026 −9.4% | Exit below $51.33 (−4.0%) | 15% 5/33 | +3.7% / +7.7% | −74.1% / −76.3% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −8.0% | Enter above $77.73 (+45.3%) | 25% 33/134 | +2.3% / +7.8% | −64.6% / −76.3% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 −2.7% | Not on one close | 33% 35/106 | +7.4% / +7.7% | −53.0% / −76.3% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above $57.72 (+7.9%) | 43% 76/178 | +9.0% / +7.2% | −41.4% / −76.3% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | OUT | Sep 29, 2026 −3.6% | Not on one close | 40% 121/302 | +4.2% / +7.2% | −56.2% / −76.3% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | OUT | Sep 24, 2026 −7.2% | Enter above $59.74 (+11.7%) | 40% 217/542 | +9.6% / +7.4% | −47.5% / −76.3% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above $61.71 (+15.4%) | 35% 74/212 | +0.4% / +7.7% | −69.9% / −76.3% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 −2.7% | Enter above $55.97 (+4.6%) | 42% 176/419 | +9.8% / +7.1% | −44.1% / −76.3% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Feb 12, 2026 −21.0% | Not on one close | 35% 39/110 | +4.6% / +8.0% | −49.2% / −76.3% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −8.0% | Enter above $69.13 (+29.2%) | 28% 53/186 | +5.1% / +8.1% | −56.5% / −76.3% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −10.9% | Enter above $56.93 (+6.4%) | 36% 76/214 | +5.4% / +7.2% | −56.1% / −76.3% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above $65.18 (+21.8%) | 31% 72/232 | +1.9% / +8.1% | −62.8% / −76.3% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | IN | Jul 22, 2026 −0.8% | Not on one close | 46% 92/202 | +8.1% / +7.0% | −51.8% / −76.3% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 −2.7% | Enter above $67.55 (+26.3%) | 30% 52/176 | +5.1% / +8.1% | −57.0% / −76.3% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 −2.7% | Enter above $78.50 (+46.8%) | 22% 25/116 | +1.4% / +8.1% | −73.6% / −76.3% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −8.0% | Not on one close | 38% 84/222 | +4.3% / +7.6% | −42.3% / −76.3% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Feb 5, 2026 −19.8% | Not on one close | 38% 10/26 | +1.6% / +8.1% | −15.8% / −76.3% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above $61.00 (+14.0%) | 37% 47/128 | +4.2% / +7.2% | −65.9% / −76.3% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | May 15, 2026 −22.5% | Enter above $61.00 (+14.0%) | 31% 40/128 | +3.4% / +8.1% | −43.4% / −76.3% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | OUT | Feb 5, 2026 −19.8% | Enter above $64.31 (+20.2%) | 30% 28/92 | +3.6% / +8.1% | −51.7% / −76.3% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Jan 30, 2026 −29.1% | Enter above $138.80 (+159.5%) | 30% 26/88 | +4.7% / +8.1% | −37.8% / −76.3% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | OUT | Jun 5, 2026 −13.1% | Enter above $64.69 (+20.9%) | 36% 38/106 | +3.6% / +7.2% | −53.8% / −76.3% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −7.6% | Enter above $59.96 (+12.1%) | 36% 56/156 | +7.8% / +8.5% | −37.9% / −76.3% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −7.6% | Enter above $61.52 (+15.0%) | 37% 74/202 | +4.3% / +7.3% | −44.0% / −76.3% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −7.6% | Enter above $60.73 (+13.5%) | 38% 72/190 | +6.6% / +7.6% | −44.0% / −76.3% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above $57.36 (+7.2%) | 42% 85/202 | +6.8% / +7.2% | −50.1% / −76.3% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | OUT | Sep 14, 2026 −5.9% | Enter above $61.49 (+15.0%) | 35% 29/84 | +2.7% / +7.6% | −68.7% / −76.3% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | OUT | Sep 10, 2026 −7.0% | Enter above $56.40 (+5.4%) | 25% 94/374 | +6.9% / +8.0% | −54.7% / −76.3% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −10.9% | Not on one close | 34% 84/246 | +5.7% / +7.2% | −36.7% / −76.3% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Aug 14, 2026 −8.5% | Not on one close | 37% 28/76 | +1.9% / +8.5% | −33.1% / −76.3% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −8.0% | Enter above $54.74 (+2.3%) | 32% 229/717 | +1.9% / +7.4% | −65.4% / −76.3% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −7.6% | Not on one close | 31% 10/32 | 0.0% / +7.4% | −29.9% / −76.3% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | IN | May 31, 2024 +92.7% | Exit below $45.63 (−14.7%) | 26% 10/39 | +2.6% / +7.5% | −72.6% / −76.3% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | May 31, 2024 +92.7% | Not on one close | 48% 15/31 | +7.3% / +7.5% | −52.3% / −76.3% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | IN | Jun 30, 2025 +63.0% | Exit below $50.74 (−5.1%) | 30% 11/37 | +4.2% / +7.5% | −55.8% / −76.3% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | OUT | Jan 30, 2026 −29.1% | Buy $57.72–$61.51 (+7.9%) | 15% 26/170 | +2.6% / +8.3% | −75.3% / −76.3% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | OUT | Jan 30, 2026 −29.1% | Enter above $100.32 (+87.5%) | 40% 8/20 | +8.8% / +7.4% | −48.6% / −76.3% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | OUT | May 15, 2026 −22.5% | Enter above $62.96 (+17.7%) | 31% 33/106 | +5.8% / +7.7% | −57.3% / −76.3% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −7.6% | Enter above $56.54 (+5.7%) | 38% 148/389 | +7.9% / +8.1% | −46.4% / −76.3% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −8.0% | Enter above $55.06 (+2.9%) | 32% 214/674 | +8.6% / +8.1% | −55.9% / −76.3% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | OUT | Sep 2, 2026 −9.4% | Enter above $67.07 (+25.4%) | 47% 129/277 | +9.4% / +7.9% | −42.0% / −76.3% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Nov 30, 2022 +161.8% | Not on one close | 48% 11/23 | +8.5% / +6.8% | −71.9% / −76.3% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −10.9% | Enter above $62.66 (+17.1%) | 33% 171/522 | +8.8% / +7.2% | −37.3% / −76.3% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 −9.9% | Enter above $84.22 (+57.4%) | 44% 105/240 | +9.2% / +8.1% | −35.8% / −76.3% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 −2.7% | Enter above $69.72 (+30.3%) | 29% 53/184 | +5.3% / +8.1% | −59.0% / −76.3% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | OUT | Sep 30, 2026 −1.9% | Enter above $54.40 (+1.7%) | 30% 27/91 | +1.3% / +7.5% | −78.9% / −76.3% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | May 31, 2024 +92.7% | Not on one close | 56% 15/27 | +5.8% / +8.8% | −52.3% / −76.3% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2024 +88.3% | Not on one close | 48% 10/21 | +8.0% / +7.5% | −53.5% / −76.3% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | OUT | Sep 8, 2026 −9.9% | Enter above $61.02 (+14.1%) | 36% 108/299 | +8.5% / +7.0% | −40.5% / −76.3% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Jun 11, 2026 −12.1% | Not on one close | 70% 30/43 | +6.2% / +7.4% | −42.6% / −76.3% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Jun 11, 2026 −12.1% | Not on one close | 57% 118/206 | −0.5% / +7.1% | −34.2% / −76.3% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Jun 15, 2026 −15.7% | Not on one close | 62% 170/274 | −0.7% / +7.1% | −53.3% / −76.3% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | IN | Sep 28, 2026 −2.7% | Sell above $56.23 (+5.1%) | 59% 100/169 | +0.4% / +7.3% | −58.5% / −76.3% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | IN | Sep 16, 2026 −6.2% | Not on one close | 66% 112/169 | +4.3% / +7.3% | −60.3% / −76.3% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | IN | Oct 6, 2026 −3.5% | Not on one close | 61% 157/257 | −0.6% / +7.4% | −73.0% / −76.3% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | IN | Oct 5, 2026 −3.0% | Not on one close | 67% 50/75 | +6.1% / +6.8% | −46.0% / −76.3% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Jan 30, 2026 −29.1% | Sell above $158.64 (+196.6%) | 100% 2/2 | +8.9% / +7.1% | −76.3% / −76.3% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Nov 7, 2014 +254.2% | Buy below $31.10 (−41.9%) | 62% 10/16 | +1.4% / +7.0% | −21.1% / −76.3% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Sep 9, 2026 −11.9% | Not on one close | 50% 154/309 | +3.3% / +8.5% | −54.0% / −76.3% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Sep 25, 2026 −8.0% | Not on one close | 55% 213/387 | +1.6% / +8.5% | −75.1% / −76.3% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Buy below $53.49 (0.0%) | 53% 803/1504 | −4.1% / +6.8% | −69.7% / −76.3% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Apr 14, 2026 −25.7% | Not on one close | 69% 48/70 | +2.4% / +7.1% | −59.0% / −76.3% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −2.4% | Exit below $53.81 (+0.6%) | 36% 370/1015 | +5.8% / +8.1% | −59.8% / −76.3% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | IN | Sep 30, 2026 −1.9% | Sell above $55.61 (+4.0%) | 54% 62/114 | +3.1% / +7.6% | −61.6% / −76.3% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −8.0% | Not on one close | 27% 178/650 | +8.4% / +7.3% | −60.4% / −76.3% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 −7.6% | Not on one close | 42% 76/181 | +5.7% / +7.2% | −69.0% / −76.3% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | OUT | Jul 17, 2023 +134.7% | Not on one close | 68% 23/34 | +6.1% / +7.4% | −43.4% / −76.3% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Jun 25, 2025 +62.0% | Exit below $47.03 (−12.1%) | 33% 31/94 | +5.2% / +7.4% | −75.6% / −76.3% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −8.0% | Enter above $55.87 (+4.4%) | 30% 170/562 | +11.6% / +7.7% | −47.4% / −76.3% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | OUT | Sep 25, 2026 −8.0% | Enter above $66.93 (+25.1%) | 39% 123/316 | +10.6% / +7.3% | −47.6% / −76.3% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 −11.0% | Not on one close | 44% 258/584 | +8.8% / +7.2% | −63.5% / −76.3% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −0.6% | Not on one close | 32% 37/115 | +4.2% / +7.5% | −65.9% / −76.3% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −1.6% | Not on one close | 35% 299/850 | +4.6% / +8.2% | −69.9% / −76.3% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −10.9% | Enter above $54.28 (+1.5%) | 60% 42/70 | +5.6% / +6.6% | −65.8% / −76.3% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Aug 28, 2026 −10.9% | Not on one close | 30% 32/108 | −4.7% / +6.8% | −77.6% / −76.3% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Sep 23, 2026 −8.0% | Not on one close | 56% 29/52 | +0.5% / +7.4% | −17.5% / −76.3% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 −19.8% | Buys Oct 30 | 57% 23/40 | +8.6% / +6.8% | −58.4% / −76.3% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 23, 2026 −21.8% | Enter above $53.89 (+0.8%) | 57% 23/40 | +9.7% / +8.1% | −50.2% / −76.3% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | Apr 28, 2026 −19.2% | Window opens Oct 16 | 57% 23/40 | +7.3% / +8.1% | −63.9% / −76.3% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 −22.6% | Buys Dec 23 | 65% 26/40 | +4.5% / +6.8% | −10.8% / −76.3% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 −3.0% | Buys Oct 29 | 52% 255/490 | +2.9% / +6.8% | −43.4% / −76.3% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 −1.9% | Sells Jun 30 | 64% 7/11 | +4.5% / +6.8% | −35.8% / −76.3% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 −10.6% | Buys Nov 24 | 54% 201/372 | +3.2% / +6.8% | −11.9% / −76.3% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +142.9% | Not on one close | 56% 10/18 | +5.2% / +7.6% | −62.1% / −76.3% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −1.6% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 1064/2135 | −0.8% / +6.8% | −82.9% / −76.3% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 −6.2% | Buys Oct 27 | 54% 176/326 | +4.7% / +6.8% | −11.0% / −76.3% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 −2.3% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 253/506 | +5.5% / +6.8% | −62.6% / −76.3% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Apr 28, 2006 | Always in | – | +6.9% | −76.3% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureLow0 of 10 points
- Market swings0/3
- Past crashes0/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
Nothing on the checklist stands out.
- Beta0.81Moves about 0.8× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture23%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 23% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
- Two-year change+86%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
- From 52-week high−49%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.