Indexes & ETFs
Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)
Your signal
Buy77 / 100
Buy: 77 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−2% from its 1-year high) scores 93 and lifts it; Plays in (67%) scores 67 and holds it back.
Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.
| Factor you weight | QQQ | Points | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 67% | 67 | 40 | 26.8 |
| Off the high | −2% from its 1-year high | 93 | 30 | 27.9 |
| Trend | +11% vs 200-day | 73 | 30 | 21.9 |
Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works
All 18 factors for QQQ
| Factor | QQQ | Points | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plays in | 67% | 67 | The share of the plays you count that hold it now. |
| Analysts' upside | – | – | How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price. |
| Analysts' rating | – | – | The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0. |
| P/E | – | – | Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. |
| Forward P/E | – | – | Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. |
| PEG | – | – | P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. |
| Price to sales | – | – | Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. |
| Price to book | – | – | Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. |
| Dividend yield | – | – | Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. |
| Earnings growth | – | – | Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Revenue growth | – | – | Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. |
| Profit margin | – | – | Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. |
| Return on equity | – | – | Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. |
| Debt to equity | – | – | Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. |
| Off the high | −2% from its 1-year high | 93 | How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it. |
| Trend | +11% vs 200-day | 73 | How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher. |
| 1-year momentum | +24% | 60 | The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher. |
| Low crash exposure | 1/10 · low | 90 | The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure. |
The read
Test a theory on QQQ- 67 of the 100 plays hold QQQ right now.
- The trend-following, breakout and momentum plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion plays mostly say out.
- It closed 11% above its 200-day average and 2% below its 52-week high.
- Crash exposure reads low: it moves about 1.3× its index.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.
Plays in67 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureLow1 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.11×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+11%). Higher than on 70% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.
The most accurate play in each family
Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about QQQ now.
Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn QQQ: right 12 of 28 · Out since Jan 18, 2024Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn QQQ: right 17 of 38 · In since Sep 22, 2026Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn QQQ: right 12 of 18 · In since Apr 28, 2023Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn QQQ: right 115 of 188 · Out since Aug 3, 2026Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn QQQ: right 18 of 30 · Out since May 19, 2025Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn QQQ: right 44 of 87 · In since Mar 9, 2026CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn QQQ: right 21 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026
A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.
QQQ, day by day
How to read candlesticksEach candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.
Two years of calls, week by week
One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.
Every play on QQQ
All 100 plays, by family.
Trend following26 of 30 inBreakouts & channels12 of 15 inMomentum14 of 17 inMean reversion4 of 15 inVolume & money flow6 of 9 inCandles & chart patterns1 of 3 inCalendar4 of 11 in
Calls right: how often the play's calls on QQQ went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.
| Play | Call | Since | Next move | Calls right | Annual return | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend following | ||||||
| PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 +3.8% | Exit below $740.55 (−0.4%) | 26% 167/636 | +6.7% / +15.3% | −31.4% / −53.4% |
| Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +21.9% | Exit below $711.33 (−4.3%) | 34% 31/92 | +11.7% / +15.3% | −25.5% / −53.4% |
| Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 +3.8% | Exit below $728.28 (−2.1%) | 21% 81/380 | +7.9% / +15.3% | −24.0% / −53.4% |
| Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $726.12 (−2.3%) | 19% 31/163 | +3.2% / +15.5% | −24.1% / −53.4% |
| Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +21.9% | Exit below $698.52 (−6.1%) | 34% 19/56 | +11.2% / +15.3% | −25.2% / −53.4% |
| Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly | IN | Apr 10, 2026 +21.9% | Exit below $721.65 (−2.9%) | 28% 29/104 | +8.3% / +15.3% | −29.3% / −53.4% |
| 10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end | IN | Apr 30, 2026 +11.6% | Exit below $675.85 (−9.1%) | 32% 13/40 | +11.4% / +15.3% | −28.6% / −53.4% |
| 200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily | IN | Apr 8, 2026 +22.9% | Exit below $672.36 (−9.6%) | 13% 19/142 | +11.4% / +15.3% | −26.3% / −53.4% |
| Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily | IN | Jun 23, 2025 +40.7% | Not on one close | 46% 12/26 | +12.8% / +15.3% | −28.6% / −53.4% |
| Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Apr 8, 2026 +22.9% | Exit below $672.36 (−9.6%) | 15% 16/110 | +10.8% / +15.3% | −23.8% / −53.4% |
| Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly | IN | Aug 14, 2026 +1.8% | Exit below $695.75 (−6.4%) | 34% 46/134 | +7.5% / +15.3% | −27.4% / −53.4% |
| Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 +3.8% | Exit below $740.53 (−0.4%) | 24% 198/824 | +3.2% / +15.3% | −41.8% / −53.4% |
| TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.2% | Exit below $706.97 (−4.9%) | 33% 91/276 | +5.1% / +15.3% | −32.4% / −53.4% |
| Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily | IN | May 5, 2025 +54.1% | Not on one close | 41% 9/22 | +13.7% / +15.8% | −28.6% / −53.4% |
| Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.2% | Exit below $673.89 (−9.4%) | 30% 42/138 | +7.5% / +15.3% | −24.8% / −53.4% |
| Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily | IN | Aug 27, 2026 +3.2% | Exit below $698.65 (−6.0%) | 31% 38/122 | +7.7% / +15.3% | −32.8% / −53.4% |
| SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily | IN | Aug 4, 2026 +2.8% | Exit below $734.09 (−1.3%) | 38% 65/172 | +9.7% / +15.3% | −20.9% / −53.4% |
| Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily | IN | Sep 25, 2026 −0.1% | Not on one close | 44% 141/324 | +8.3% / +15.3% | −22.8% / −53.4% |
| Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Enter above $740.88 (−0.4%) | 36% 184/507 | +8.0% / +15.3% | −32.4% / −53.4% |
| AroonTushar S. Chande · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $699.27 (−6.0%) | 40% 75/188 | +10.3% / +15.3% | −24.9% / −53.4% |
| Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $738.82 (−0.6%) | 36% 198/545 | +4.0% / +15.3% | −38.6% / −53.4% |
| ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Jun 17, 2026 +3.1% | Not on one close | 37% 51/139 | +4.7% / +15.3% | −15.3% / −53.4% |
| MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.2% | Exit below $651.78 (−12.3%) | 31% 55/178 | +8.7% / +15.3% | −26.5% / −53.4% |
| Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly | IN | Aug 7, 2026 +2.9% | Exit below $721.22 (−3.0%) | 45% 60/134 | +11.2% / +15.3% | −28.9% / −53.4% |
| MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 +3.8% | Not on one close | 30% 70/230 | +8.1% / +15.3% | −27.9% / −53.4% |
| Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Not on one close | 37% 103/275 | +6.3% / +15.3% | −44.4% / −53.4% |
| Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.2% | Exit below $660.90 (−11.1%) | 34% 52/155 | +9.3% / +15.3% | −30.8% / −53.4% |
| DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily | IN | Aug 6, 2026 +4.2% | Exit below $521.01 (−29.9%) | 31% 31/100 | +7.6% / +15.3% | −31.0% / −53.4% |
| Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily | IN | Sep 25, 2026 −0.1% | Exit below $734.62 (−1.2%) | 38% 81/214 | +7.3% / +15.3% | −22.1% / −53.4% |
| Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Jan 18, 2024 +82.7% | Not on one close | 43% 12/28 | +2.1% / +15.3% | −3.4% / −53.4% |
| Breakouts & channels | ||||||
| Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily | IN | Aug 13, 2026 +1.7% | Exit below $699.27 (−6.0%) | 44% 56/128 | +9.2% / +15.3% | −30.9% / −53.4% |
| Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $736.25 (−1.0%) | 34% 58/170 | +5.9% / +15.3% | −14.6% / −53.4% |
| Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $720.44 (−3.1%) | 36% 38/106 | +8.1% / +15.3% | −16.5% / −53.4% |
| Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $731.45 (−1.6%) | 32% 40/126 | +6.5% / +15.3% | −21.9% / −53.4% |
| Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $731.63 (−1.6%) | 37% 44/118 | +7.0% / +15.3% | −25.2% / −53.4% |
| Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $741.13 (−0.3%) | 36% 64/178 | +6.1% / +15.3% | −16.4% / −53.4% |
| Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $743.18 (−0.1%) | 30% 60/202 | +3.7% / +15.3% | −18.8% / −53.4% |
| Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily | IN | Aug 13, 2026 +1.7% | Exit below $734.67 (−1.2%) | 37% 69/188 | +7.8% / +15.3% | −28.3% / −53.4% |
| Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $734.58 (−1.2%) | 37% 61/164 | +10.6% / +15.3% | −28.0% / −53.4% |
| P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 −0.5% | Exit below $649.02 (−12.7%) | 45% 17/38 | +11.7% / +15.3% | −36.6% / −53.4% |
| Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $738.27 (−0.7%) | 26% 94/360 | +8.0% / +15.3% | −30.0% / −53.4% |
| Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily | OUT | Oct 8, 2026 −0.5% | Not on one close | 27% 75/274 | +2.5% / +15.3% | −14.7% / −53.4% |
| TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily | OUT | Oct 9, 2026 −1.0% | Not on one close | 28% 32/114 | +0.4% / +15.3% | −30.8% / −53.4% |
| NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −1.9% | Enter above $762.86 (+2.6%) | 32% 251/785 | +1.9% / +15.3% | −37.0% / −53.4% |
| Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $743.18 (−0.1%) | 29% 13/45 | +1.5% / +15.3% | −14.2% / −53.4% |
| Momentum | ||||||
| 12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +135.1% | Exit below $649.25 (−12.7%) | 31% 8/26 | +12.3% / +15.6% | −28.6% / −53.4% |
| 12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +135.1% | Not on one close | 67% 12/18 | +15.0% / +15.6% | −28.7% / −53.4% |
| Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end | IN | Apr 30, 2025 +57.5% | Exit below $721.92 (−2.9%) | 37% 13/35 | +11.6% / +15.6% | −31.5% / −53.4% |
| Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily | IN | Oct 1, 2026 +0.2% | Exit below $719.99 (−3.2%) | 20% 42/206 | +6.0% / +15.3% | −26.2% / −53.4% |
| 52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +135.1% | Exit below $645.71 (−13.2%) | 60% 6/10 | +13.1% / +15.3% | −28.6% / −53.4% |
| Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.2% | Exit below $740.07 (−0.5%) | 29% 37/128 | +7.7% / +15.3% | −26.1% / −53.4% |
| MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $761.69 (+2.4%) | 36% 158/433 | +7.6% / +15.3% | −31.2% / −53.4% |
| Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Enter above $751.42 (+1.1%) | 29% 229/777 | +5.2% / +15.3% | −33.9% / −53.4% |
| Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $716.06 (−3.7%) | 38% 120/312 | +6.0% / +15.3% | −28.7% / −53.4% |
| Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end | IN | Mar 31, 2023 +136.3% | Not on one close | 67% 2/3 | +17.2% / +15.8% | −32.7% / −53.4% |
| CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −1.9% | Enter above $761.06 (+2.4%) | 29% 198/684 | +4.3% / +15.3% | −19.0% / −53.4% |
| TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily | IN | Sep 22, 2026 −0.5% | Exit below $673.14 (−9.5%) | 35% 99/282 | +4.4% / +15.3% | −32.8% / −53.4% |
| TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.2% | Exit below $647.05 (−13.0%) | 30% 54/178 | +8.0% / +15.3% | −26.7% / −53.4% |
| 13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end | IN | Aug 31, 2026 +3.8% | Exit below $713.21 (−4.1%) | 35% 22/63 | +11.2% / +15.6% | −35.7% / −53.4% |
| Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end | IN | Apr 28, 2023 +135.1% | Not on one close | 50% 7/14 | +14.5% / +16.4% | −28.7% / −53.4% |
| Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily | IN | Aug 31, 2023 +100.4% | Not on one close | 65% 13/20 | +13.7% / +15.6% | −28.7% / −53.4% |
| PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $742.46 (−0.1%) | 31% 110/356 | +5.7% / +15.3% | −33.5% / −53.4% |
| Mean reversion | ||||||
| RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily | OUT | Apr 28, 2026 +13.3% | Not on one close | 60% 24/40 | +6.3% / +15.3% | −49.4% / −53.4% |
| RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Sep 17, 2026 +3.8% | Buy $672.36–$741.37 (−0.3%) | 59% 222/378 | +5.0% / +15.3% | −13.5% / −53.4% |
| Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Sell above $759.66 (+2.2%) | 65% 300/465 | +6.5% / +15.3% | −47.8% / −53.4% |
| Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily | OUT | Aug 3, 2026 +6.3% | Buy below $718.69 (−3.3%) | 61% 115/188 | +4.3% / +15.3% | −43.5% / −53.4% |
| Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily | OUT | Aug 18, 2026 +3.7% | Not on one close | 62% 94/152 | +6.6% / +15.3% | −48.0% / −53.4% |
| Williams %RLarry Williams · daily | OUT | Sep 28, 2026 +1.0% | Not on one close | 63% 179/284 | +6.9% / +15.3% | −52.8% / −53.4% |
| DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily | IN | Jul 27, 2026 +9.1% | Not on one close | 69% 41/59 | +7.3% / +15.3% | −46.8% / −53.4% |
| Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily | IN | Nov 22, 2004 +2,161.2% | Sell above $1,625.11 (+118.6%) | – | +15.3% / +15.3% | −53.4% / −53.4% |
| ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily | OUT | Jun 11, 2026 +3.9% | Not on one close | 56% 9/16 | +2.9% / +15.3% | −4.9% / −53.4% |
| Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Not on one close | 47% 139/298 | +5.8% / +15.3% | −43.9% / −53.4% |
| StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily | IN | Oct 9, 2026 −1.0% | Not on one close | 60% 250/414 | +7.6% / +15.3% | −43.9% / −53.4% |
| IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −1.9% | Buy below $743.56 (0.0%) | 58% 955/1658 | +8.2% / +15.3% | −18.3% / −53.4% |
| Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily | OUT | Aug 4, 2026 +2.8% | Not on one close | 58% 64/110 | +7.1% / +15.3% | −22.4% / −53.4% |
| Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily | OUT | Oct 7, 2026 −1.9% | Enter above $773.64 (+4.0%) | 36% 384/1060 | +4.2% / +15.3% | −42.1% / −53.4% |
| 1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end | OUT | Aug 31, 2026 +3.8% | Buy below $754.69 (+1.5%) | 59% 74/126 | +7.2% / +15.3% | −40.5% / −53.4% |
| Volume & money flow | ||||||
| On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily | IN | Sep 17, 2026 +3.8% | Exit below $743.56 (0.0%) | 27% 203/760 | +7.0% / +15.3% | −33.2% / −53.4% |
| Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Sep 18, 2026 +3.2% | Not on one close | 38% 70/184 | +6.3% / +15.3% | −37.9% / −53.4% |
| Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily | OUT | May 19, 2025 +43.4% | Not on one close | 60% 18/30 | +7.1% / +15.3% | −49.4% / −53.4% |
| Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily | IN | Mar 14, 2023 +155.4% | Not on one close | 31% 5/16 | +14.6% / +15.5% | −41.9% / −53.4% |
| Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Enter above $747.66 (+0.6%) | 25% 209/841 | +3.1% / +15.3% | −46.1% / −53.4% |
| Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily | IN | Sep 21, 2026 +0.3% | Exit below $717.22 (−3.5%) | 35% 118/338 | +8.8% / +15.3% | −25.8% / −53.4% |
| Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily | IN | Oct 13, 2026 0.0% | Exit below $743.56 (0.0%) | 32% 187/582 | +3.8% / +15.3% | −42.8% / −53.4% |
| Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily | IN | Aug 7, 2026 +2.9% | Not on one close | 34% 33/98 | +8.8% / +15.5% | −34.3% / −53.4% |
| Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily | OUT | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Buy $741.51–$746.43 (−0.3%) | 35% 320/926 | +4.5% / +15.3% | −40.7% / −53.4% |
| Candles & chart patterns | ||||||
| Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily | IN | Mar 9, 2026 +22.8% | Not on one close | 51% 44/87 | +6.7% / +15.3% | −43.4% / −53.4% |
| HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily | OUT | Sep 1, 2026 +5.2% | Enter above $752.87 (+1.3%) | 24% 23/96 | +1.2% / +15.3% | −41.1% / −53.4% |
| Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily | OUT | Jan 9, 2023 +180.8% | Not on one close | 30% 16/54 | +0.6% / +15.3% | −29.4% / −53.4% |
| Calendar | ||||||
| Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Apr 30, 2026 +11.6% | Buys Oct 30 | 49% 21/43 | +7.6% / +15.3% | −32.8% / −53.4% |
| Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | May 15, 2026 +5.1% | Enter above $769.97 (+3.6%) | 51% 22/43 | +7.6% / +15.3% | −39.3% / −53.4% |
| Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily | OUT | May 19, 2026 +6.2% | Window opens Oct 16 | 51% 22/43 | +9.0% / +15.3% | −30.6% / −53.4% |
| Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | OUT | Jan 5, 2026 +20.7% | Buys Dec 23 | 34% 15/44 | +2.0% / +15.3% | −8.2% / −53.4% |
| Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily | OUT | Oct 5, 2026 −1.7% | Buys Oct 29 | 47% 248/526 | +3.8% / +15.3% | −26.1% / −53.4% |
| Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily | IN | Sep 30, 2026 +0.5% | Sells Jun 30 | 45% 5/11 | +4.9% / +15.3% | −23.3% / −53.4% |
| Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | OUT | Sep 4, 2026 +3.5% | Buys Nov 24 | 48% 194/400 | +2.2% / +15.3% | −6.4% / −53.4% |
| January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end | IN | Dec 30, 2022 +185.2% | Not on one close | 30% 6/20 | +9.8% / +15.3% | −30.1% / −53.4% |
| Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily | IN | Oct 12, 2026 −0.3% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 1134/2284 | +6.6% / +15.3% | −42.5% / −53.4% |
| Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily | OUT | Sep 16, 2026 +5.6% | Buys Oct 27 | 45% 158/348 | +3.7% / +15.3% | −5.3% / −53.4% |
| Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily | IN | Oct 2, 2026 −0.8% | Sells Oct 16 | 50% 269/541 | +6.9% / +15.3% | −37.9% / −53.4% |
| Benchmark | ||||||
| Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark | IN | Jan 3, 2005 | Always in | – | +15.3% | −53.4% |
If the market cracks: the storm test
How the storm test worksExposureLow1 of 10 points
- Market swings1/3
- Past crashes0/2
- Debt0/3
- Run-up0/2
- It moves about 1.3× its index.
- Beta1.29Moves about 1.3× as much as the S&P 500 week to week.
- Downside capture107%In months the S&P 500 fell, this fell 107% as much on average.
- Two-year change+52%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
- From 52-week high−2%
A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.
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Reports for Be The Puck Members.