Energy & power

Imperial Oil (IMO)

C$183.75 +4.5% on the day·+53.8% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy68 / 100

Buy: 68 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−3% from its 1-year high) scores 91 and lifts it; Plays in (48%) scores 48 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	IMO	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	48%	48	40	19.2
Off the high	−3% from its 1-year high	91	30	27.3
Trend	+10% vs 200-day	72	30	21.6

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for IMO

Factor	IMO	Points	What it is
Plays in	48%	48	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	−13% · 17 analysts	10	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	3.7 · sell	0	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	21.5×	61	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Forward P/E	14.2×	58	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	5.19	8	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	1.7×	75	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Price to book	3.6×	40	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Dividend yield	1.7%	46	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Earnings growth	−6%	25	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Revenue growth	+4%	23	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Profit margin	8%	43	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Return on equity	17%	63	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Debt to equity	0.14×	79	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: SEC filings to 2026-06-30.
Off the high	−3% from its 1-year high	91	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+10% vs 200-day	72	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+54%	79	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	0/10 · low	100	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on IMO

48 of the 100 plays hold IMO right now.
The breakout plays mostly say out.
It closed 10% above its 200-day average and 3% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$159.94, 13% below the close (17 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in48 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.10×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+10%). Higher than on 70% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about IMO now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn IMO: right 22 of 46 · Out since Mar 16, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn IMO: right 25 of 92 · In since Jul 23, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn IMO: right 13 of 26 · In since Jun 30, 2025 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn IMO: right 122 of 194 · Out since Oct 2, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn IMO: right 24 of 38 · Out since Jan 28, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn IMO: right 63 of 123 · Out since Jul 14, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn IMO: right 22 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

IMO, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved IMO lately

Its biggest move against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Sep 1+4.3% against the S&P/TSX2.4× a normal day

IMO +3.0%, the S&P/TSX −1.2% that session; +0.2% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on IMO was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for IMO starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −1.2%. The 58 other Energy & power stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.7% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Next earnings report

Fri Oct 30, 2026 before the open

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 4.62.

Over its last 12 reports, IMO's typical move against the S&P/TSX at the first close after the report was ±1.2% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 4 times.
IMO after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 12 of 23 times (median +0.0%).
IMO after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 15 of 22 times (median −1.4%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on IMO

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following15 of 30 in Breakouts & channels3 of 15 in Momentum11 of 17 in Mean reversion8 of 15 in Volume & money flow5 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on IMO went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$176.80 (−3.8%)	29% 179/624	+8.1% / +11.8%	−72.8% / −78.7%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Jul 10, 2026 +8.1%	Exit below C$174.38 (−5.1%)	20% 30/150	+1.4% / +11.8%	−77.7% / −78.7%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$177.73 (−3.3%)	23% 94/414	+6.1% / +11.8%	−73.1% / −78.7%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$180.14 (−2.0%)	27% 34/127	+7.2% / +12.0%	−25.8% / −78.7%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Jan 2, 2026 +52.5%	Exit below C$174.45 (−5.1%)	19% 19/102	+3.6% / +11.8%	−68.9% / −78.7%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Jan 2, 2026 +52.5%	Exit below C$174.45 (−5.1%)	24% 23/94	+3.5% / +11.8%	−57.8% / −78.7%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	May 30, 2025 +94.0%	Exit below C$167.88 (−8.6%)	29% 12/42	+8.7% / +11.8%	−61.0% / −78.7%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	May 9, 2025 +91.5%	Exit below C$166.63 (−9.3%)	12% 27/216	+5.2% / +11.8%	−75.4% / −78.7%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	Jun 19, 2025 +68.4%	Not on one close	34% 11/32	+8.9% / +11.8%	−51.3% / −78.7%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	May 12, 2025 +87.3%	Exit below C$166.63 (−9.3%)	14% 19/132	+5.8% / +11.8%	−63.0% / −78.7%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +1.1%	Enter above C$190.31 (+3.6%)	32% 45/141	+3.8% / +11.8%	−70.0% / −78.7%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$178.29 (−3.0%)	27% 211/786	+9.6% / +11.8%	−67.4% / −78.7%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +1.4%	Enter above C$185.38 (+0.9%)	37% 94/254	+9.9% / +11.8%	−73.6% / −78.7%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Jan 5, 2021 +696.1%	Not on one close	22% 7/32	+8.9% / +10.8%	−62.6% / −78.7%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +4.6%	Enter above C$190.57 (+3.7%)	24% 37/155	+1.6% / +11.8%	−71.0% / −78.7%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +7.8%	Not on one close	25% 37/147	+2.6% / +11.8%	−63.6% / −78.7%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Sep 21, 2026 +3.5%	Enter above C$184.61 (+0.5%)	37% 60/161	+5.0% / +11.8%	−69.4% / −78.7%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +4.6%	Not on one close	39% 123/315	+2.9% / +11.8%	−62.5% / −78.7%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$166.56 (−9.4%)	37% 204/556	+9.9% / +11.8%	−66.2% / −78.7%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +0.7%	Enter above C$189.50 (+3.1%)	34% 76/223	+2.5% / +11.8%	−80.2% / −78.7%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +4.5%	Exit below C$170.51 (−7.2%)	42% 215/512	+8.9% / +11.8%	−59.7% / −78.7%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jul 15, 2026 +9.2%	Not on one close	40% 58/145	+5.1% / +11.8%	−32.8% / −78.7%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +5.2%	Enter above C$187.01 (+1.8%)	23% 51/223	+2.6% / +11.8%	−76.6% / −78.7%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +1.8%	Enter above C$180.69 (−1.7%)	35% 78/223	+3.7% / +11.8%	−71.0% / −78.7%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +5.2%	Enter above C$270.28 (+47.1%)	32% 76/239	+7.0% / +11.8%	−52.7% / −78.7%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	41% 105/254	+10.3% / +11.8%	−57.7% / −78.7%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +5.2%	Enter above C$184.29 (+0.3%)	24% 46/193	+0.1% / +11.8%	−81.6% / −78.7%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +4.3%	Enter above C$184.42 (+0.4%)	22% 29/131	−0.1% / +11.8%	−73.3% / −78.7%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Aug 7, 2026 +6.0%	Not on one close	32% 66/204	+4.2% / +11.8%	−63.9% / −78.7%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Mar 16, 2026 +9.8%	Not on one close	48% 22/46	+2.3% / +11.8%	−13.5% / −78.7%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +5.2%	Enter above C$189.50 (+3.1%)	31% 43/139	+4.6% / +11.8%	−71.8% / −78.7%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +3.2%	Enter above C$189.50 (+3.1%)	35% 47/136	+4.3% / +11.8%	−39.3% / −78.7%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +5.2%	Enter above C$190.31 (+3.6%)	30% 26/87	+6.5% / +11.8%	−47.0% / −78.7%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +5.2%	Enter above C$189.09 (+2.9%)	29% 28/98	+3.1% / +11.8%	−43.5% / −78.7%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +3.2%	Not on one close	25% 28/111	+0.8% / +11.8%	−73.7% / −78.7%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2026 +1.5%	Enter above C$187.75 (+2.2%)	33% 52/158	+2.3% / +11.8%	−38.4% / −78.7%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2026 +1.5%	Enter above C$185.05 (+0.7%)	36% 77/216	+3.7% / +11.8%	−47.7% / −78.7%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +5.2%	Enter above C$188.24 (+2.4%)	34% 67/198	+4.9% / +11.8%	−66.9% / −78.7%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +5.2%	Enter above C$185.46 (+0.9%)	41% 71/174	+9.7% / +11.8%	−65.4% / −78.7%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Jul 23, 2026 +1.7%	Exit below C$168.83 (−8.1%)	27% 25/92	+2.7% / +11.8%	−82.7% / −78.7%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$176.99 (−3.7%)	29% 101/346	+6.1% / +11.8%	−64.0% / −78.7%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Jul 27, 2026 +3.9%	Not on one close	35% 66/186	+2.2% / +11.8%	−34.1% / −78.7%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Apr 9, 2026 +4.5%	Not on one close	34% 50/148	−0.7% / +11.8%	−46.1% / −78.7%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$172.36 (−6.2%)	36% 237/650	+9.2% / +11.8%	−65.3% / −78.7%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2025 +48.6%	Not on one close	32% 12/38	+1.5% / +11.8%	−18.9% / −78.7%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Jun 30, 2025 +74.4%	Exit below C$126.01 (−31.4%)	55% 21/38	+11.6% / +11.3%	−45.6% / −78.7%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Jun 30, 2025 +74.4%	Not on one close	50% 13/26	+11.2% / +11.3%	−48.7% / −78.7%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Jun 30, 2025 +74.4%	Exit below C$140.12 (−23.7%)	41% 13/32	+7.7% / +11.3%	−38.4% / −78.7%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +5.2%	Exit below C$174.48 (−5.0%)	23% 33/142	+1.9% / +11.8%	−63.3% / −78.7%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below C$160.73 (−12.5%)	46% 11/24	+7.0% / +11.8%	−33.6% / −78.7%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +5.8%	Enter above C$180.90 (−1.6%)	25% 35/141	+0.7% / +11.8%	−64.4% / −78.7%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$169.70 (−7.6%)	36% 155/427	+11.3% / +11.8%	−64.6% / −78.7%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +4.5%	Exit below C$176.84 (−3.8%)	34% 245/718	+10.1% / +11.8%	−74.1% / −78.7%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 +1.3%	Enter above C$177.27 (−3.5%)	39% 119/308	+7.9% / +11.8%	−75.6% / −78.7%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Nov 30, 2020 +854.1%	Not on one close	29% 6/21	+11.5% / +9.6%	−33.3% / −78.7%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2026 +1.5%	Enter above C$179.86 (−2.1%)	31% 186/594	+2.8% / +11.8%	−56.0% / −78.7%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +1.8%	Enter above C$192.94 (+5.0%)	37% 100/270	+8.0% / +11.8%	−70.4% / −78.7%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +5.2%	Enter above C$187.93 (+2.3%)	23% 50/219	+2.3% / +11.8%	−77.0% / −78.7%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Jun 30, 2026 +15.9%	Exit below C$172.71 (−6.0%)	32% 28/88	+6.1% / +11.3%	−58.9% / −78.7%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Jun 30, 2025 +74.4%	Not on one close	50% 10/20	+10.0% / +9.7%	−42.4% / −78.7%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Jun 30, 2025 +74.4%	Not on one close	54% 14/26	+10.3% / +11.3%	−48.7% / −78.7%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Aug 27, 2026 +0.8%	Enter above C$176.83 (−3.8%)	38% 117/308	+11.6% / +11.8%	−68.3% / −78.7%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jan 15, 2026 +39.3%	Not on one close	70% 35/50	+10.2% / +11.8%	−65.0% / −78.7%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 9, 2026 +4.5%	Not on one close	59% 168/286	+0.7% / +11.8%	−27.4% / −78.7%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Buy C$166.63–C$170.38 (−7.3%)	56% 184/330	−0.6% / +11.8%	−56.6% / −78.7%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 +2.4%	Buy below C$168.43 (−8.3%)	63% 122/194	+2.4% / +11.8%	−70.6% / −78.7%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +5.8%	Not on one close	68% 117/173	+9.0% / +11.8%	−70.3% / −78.7%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +5.0%	Exit below C$180.96 (−1.5%)	63% 185/292	+2.2% / +11.8%	−69.3% / −78.7%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +5.0%	Not on one close	63% 55/87	+8.1% / +11.8%	−66.6% / −78.7%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +1,018.5%	Sell above C$402.73 (+119.2%)	–	+11.8% / +11.8%	−78.7% / −78.7%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Dec 30, 2025 +56.5%	Not on one close	53% 18/34	−0.2% / +11.8%	−44.2% / −78.7%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +3.5%	Not on one close	47% 157/336	+10.0% / +11.8%	−62.4% / −78.7%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +3.5%	Exit below C$181.04 (−1.5%)	56% 236/422	+1.8% / +11.8%	−66.3% / −78.7%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +5.2%	Buy below C$183.75 (0.0%)	57% 1059/1846	+6.0% / +11.8%	−40.1% / −78.7%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	60% 54/90	+4.6% / +11.8%	−26.9% / −78.7%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +4.5%	Exit below C$166.86 (−9.2%)	41% 433/1066	+13.3% / +11.8%	−56.1% / −78.7%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +1.4%	Sell above C$178.53 (−2.8%)	57% 68/120	+6.9% / +11.8%	−56.9% / −78.7%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$183.75 (0.0%)	26% 191/729	+6.6% / +11.8%	−59.0% / −78.7%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +0.3%	Not on one close	29% 61/212	−0.5% / +11.8%	−86.8% / −78.7%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Jan 28, 2026 +33.0%	Not on one close	63% 24/38	+5.2% / +11.8%	−66.8% / −78.7%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Jun 3, 2025 +88.2%	Exit below C$172.11 (−6.3%)	33% 34/104	+9.0% / +12.0%	−84.8% / −78.7%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$175.82 (−4.3%)	30% 232/780	+6.0% / +11.8%	−77.8% / −78.7%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Sep 22, 2026 +5.2%	Enter above C$179.43 (−2.4%)	35% 127/363	+8.2% / +11.8%	−67.1% / −78.7%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +3.2%	Enter above C$183.75 (0.0%)	35% 215/617	+3.1% / +11.8%	−77.8% / −78.7%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +4.5%	Not on one close	37% 46/126	+5.9% / +11.8%	−61.9% / −78.7%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +5.2%	Not on one close	38% 349/913	+10.9% / +11.8%	−58.4% / −78.7%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Jul 14, 2026 +7.3%	Not on one close	51% 63/123	+5.4% / +11.8%	−76.3% / −78.7%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +5.8%	Not on one close	33% 29/87	+4.3% / +11.8%	−52.0% / −78.7%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +5.2%	Exit below C$169.79 (−7.6%)	57% 37/65	+3.2% / +11.8%	−14.2% / −78.7%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +2.0%	Buys Oct 30	51% 22/43	+11.4% / +11.8%	−73.1% / −78.7%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +2.4%	Window opens Apr 1	59% 26/44	+13.6% / +11.8%	−71.9% / −78.7%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 +10.8%	Window opens Oct 16	53% 23/43	+9.9% / +11.8%	−73.9% / −78.7%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +54.7%	Buys Dec 23	57% 25/44	+3.7% / +11.8%	−7.8% / −78.7%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +4.3%	Buys Oct 29	46% 240/526	−1.9% / +11.8%	−65.1% / −78.7%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +5.0%	Sells Jun 30	45% 5/11	+3.3% / +11.8%	−35.0% / −78.7%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +3.2%	Buys Nov 24	48% 187/386	+2.0% / +11.8%	−13.6% / −78.7%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +206.1%	Not on one close	40% 8/20	+6.0% / +11.8%	−43.2% / −78.7%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	48% 1092/2284	+1.6% / +11.8%	−76.0% / −78.7%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +0.7%	Buys Oct 27	49% 170/348	+2.6% / +11.8%	−11.6% / −78.7%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +2.4%	Sells Oct 16	47% 253/541	+7.5% / +11.8%	−68.6% / −78.7%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 4, 2005	Always in	–	+11.8%	−78.7%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow0 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

Nothing on the checklist stands out.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Nov 2008 · back to its old high Apr 2009

IMO−33%

TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Mar 2021

IMO−65%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jan 2022 · back to its old high Jan 2022

IMO2%

TSX−14%

Beta0.60Moves about 0.6× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture35%In months the TSX fell, this fell 35% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+79%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−3%
Debt to equity0.19×
Net debt / EBITDA0.2×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover164.9×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Oil & Gas Integrated · Imperial Oil Limited engages in exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in Canada. The company operates in three segments: Upstream, Downstream and Chemical segments. The Upstream segment explores and produces crude oil, natural gas, synthetic crude oil, and bitumen. The Downstream segment transports and refines crude oil; blends refined products; and distributes and markets refined products.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$88.9B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	C$51.6B	Total sales. The market values it at 1.7× sales.
P/E ratio	21.5×	Buyers pay C$21 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	14.2×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	3.6×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	8.0%	Keeps 8¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+4.5%	The last four quarters' sales against the four before.
Earnings growth	−5.6%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	17.0%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	C$4.6B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	C$22.3B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	C$4.2B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	C$2.8B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.19×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	164.9×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$159.94	13% below the close, from 17 analysts (range C$123.00 to C$207.00).
Consensus rating	Underperform	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	1.73%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

P/E, price to sales and book, growth, margin and return on equity from the company's SEC filings for the quarter to 2026-06-30; other company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

IMO: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Energy & power: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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