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Metals & mining

Fortuna Mining (FVI)

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Hold43 / 100

Hold: 43 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Trend (+5% vs 200-day) scores 59 and lifts it; Plays in (36%) scores 36 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weightFVIPointsWeightAdds
Plays in36%364014.4
Off the high−19% from its 1-year high363010.8
Trend+5% vs 200-day593017.7
Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for FVI
FactorFVIPointsWhat it is
Plays in36%36The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside+28% · 3 analysts69How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating2.0 · buy50The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E9.3×94Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E6.2×96Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG0.1198P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales2.6×62Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book1.8×80Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yieldnone0Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth+101%81Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth+38%80Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin32%86Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity24%78Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity0.13×79Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high−19% from its 1-year high36How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend+5% vs 200-day59How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum+22%57The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure5/10 · high50The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on FVI

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in36 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureHigh5 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.05×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+5%). Higher than on 50% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about FVI now.

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved FVI lately

Its biggest move against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on FVI

All 100 plays, by family.

Calls right: how often the play's calls on FVI went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

PlayCallSinceNext moveCalls rightAnnual returnWorst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 −5.3%Enter above C$15.83 (+5.0%)23% 149/655−8.6% / +18.9%−94.1% / −89.2%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weeklyINAug 7, 2026 +3.8%Exit below C$14.27 (−5.3%)26% 27/102+13.1% / +18.9%−71.5% / −89.2%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.4%Enter above C$15.77 (+4.7%)20% 82/415+2.7% / +18.9%−82.3% / −89.2%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.4%Not on one close17% 31/182+1.5% / +18.9%−74.7% / −89.2%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weeklyINAug 28, 2026 −11.6%Exit below C$14.12 (−6.3%)19% 17/90−0.2% / +18.9%−89.2% / −89.2%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weeklyINAug 14, 2026 +1.8%Exit below C$15.32 (+1.6%)18% 18/98+3.8% / +18.9%−77.2% / −89.2%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-endINAug 31, 2026 −9.9%Exit below C$14.36 (−4.7%)34% 15/44+10.3% / +18.9%−74.5% / −89.2%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · dailyINAug 7, 2026 +3.8%Exit below C$14.33 (−4.9%)13% 28/220+8.3% / +18.9%−81.4% / −89.2%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · dailyINSep 10, 2026 −9.5%Not on one close36% 13/36+6.0% / +18.9%−87.7% / −89.2%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · dailyINAug 11, 2026 +0.1%Exit below C$14.33 (−4.9%)14% 21/152+8.3% / +18.9%−77.4% / −89.2%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weeklyOUTOct 9, 2026 −3.2%Enter above C$18.79 (+24.7%)39% 53/135+17.7% / +18.9%−66.0% / −89.2%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · dailyOUTSep 23, 2026 −8.3%Enter above C$15.93 (+5.7%)24% 189/779−7.2% / +18.9%−94.0% / −89.2%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · dailyOUTSep 11, 2026 −9.2%Enter above C$24.24 (+60.9%)34% 84/244+8.4% / +18.9%−85.6% / −89.2%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · dailyINApr 1, 2024 +189.8%Not on one close27% 8/30+16.0% / +19.1%−79.1% / −89.2%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.4%Enter above C$17.74 (+17.7%)27% 38/141+1.3% / +18.9%−87.3% / −89.2%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.4%Not on one close29% 39/135+7.4% / +18.9%−71.3% / −89.2%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.4%Enter above C$16.67 (+10.6%)29% 51/173−6.5% / +18.9%−94.0% / −89.2%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · dailyOUTSep 29, 2026 −6.5%Not on one close39% 118/299+8.9% / +18.9%−79.6% / −89.2%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · dailyOUTSep 23, 2026 −8.3%Enter above C$17.91 (+18.8%)32% 181/558−4.0% / +15.2%−85.9% / −89.2%
AroonTushar S. Chande · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 −5.3%Enter above C$17.33 (+15.0%)32% 72/223−1.8% / +18.9%−89.9% / −89.2%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 −5.3%Enter above C$16.50 (+9.5%)40% 183/461+7.2% / +18.9%−78.1% / −89.2%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 −5.3%Not on one close31% 43/139+5.4% / +18.9%−64.3% / −89.2%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.4%Enter above C$18.16 (+20.5%)25% 50/197+0.9% / +18.9%−85.4% / −89.2%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weeklyOUTOct 2, 2026 −5.8%Enter above C$16.19 (+7.5%)34% 123/367−8.6% / +18.9%−94.6% / −89.2%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTOct 1, 2026 −5.0%Enter above C$29.15 (+93.4%)25% 58/231+4.9% / +18.9%−85.3% / −89.2%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · dailyOUTSep 10, 2026 −9.5%Enter above C$17.28 (+14.7%)34% 84/249−1.1% / +18.9%−93.6% / −89.2%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.4%Enter above C$17.53 (+16.3%)25% 50/201+1.1% / +18.9%−86.4% / −89.2%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · dailyINAug 10, 2026 +0.9%Exit below C$10.56 (−29.9%)26% 29/112+6.3% / +18.9%−80.6% / −89.2%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · dailyOUTSep 11, 2026 −9.2%Not on one close35% 75/216+2.3% / +18.9%−68.8% / −89.2%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTMay 8, 2025 +101.7%Not on one close42% 17/40+2.6% / +18.9%−33.8% / −89.2%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.4%Enter above C$17.28 (+14.7%)36% 42/117+8.7% / +18.9%−81.2% / −89.2%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.4%Enter above C$17.28 (+14.7%)30% 38/125+3.0% / +18.9%−72.9% / −89.2%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.4%Enter above C$17.92 (+18.9%)25% 24/95+3.1% / +18.9%−68.1% / −89.2%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTOct 1, 2026 −5.0%Enter above C$17.73 (+17.7%)25% 24/97+5.3% / +18.9%−73.6% / −89.2%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · dailyOUTMar 13, 2026 +6.7%Not on one close33% 46/139−0.5% / +18.9%−78.9% / −89.2%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 −6.7%Enter above C$17.65 (+17.1%)34% 50/149+3.6% / +18.9%−60.8% / −89.2%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 −6.7%Enter above C$17.48 (+16.0%)36% 77/211+3.6% / +18.9%−71.5% / −89.2%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 −5.3%Enter above C$17.20 (+14.1%)31% 66/214−7.0% / +18.9%−85.4% / −89.2%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 −5.3%Enter above C$16.37 (+8.6%)30% 59/197−4.4% / +18.9%−91.9% / −89.2%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 −6.7%Enter above C$17.32 (+14.9%)36% 99/275+12.4% / +18.9%−75.9% / −89.2%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyOUTOct 1, 2026 −5.0%Enter above C$16.03 (+6.4%)24% 87/364−6.3% / +18.9%−90.8% / −89.2%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · dailyOUTAug 31, 2026 −9.9%Not on one close30% 55/182+1.8% / +18.9%−52.5% / −89.2%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · dailyOUTAug 31, 2026 −9.9%Not on one close45% 47/104+4.9% / +18.9%−39.4% / −89.2%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · dailyOUTSep 24, 2026 −7.3%Enter above C$16.23 (+7.7%)34% 225/664+3.3% / +15.3%−77.3% / −89.2%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 −6.7%Not on one close36% 16/44+3.7% / +18.9%−47.9% / −89.2%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-endINJun 30, 2025 +69.1%Exit below C$12.02 (−20.3%)43% 13/30+17.8% / +19.0%−69.2% / −89.2%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-endINMay 31, 2024 +76.5%Not on one close41% 9/22+10.4% / +19.0%−90.8% / −89.2%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-endINJun 30, 2025 +69.1%Exit below C$13.36 (−11.3%)36% 10/28+20.3% / +19.0%−61.4% / −89.2%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · dailyINAug 25, 2026 −12.4%Exit below C$14.15 (−6.1%)20% 19/97+2.3% / +18.9%−84.0% / −89.2%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-endOUTMar 31, 2026 +9.0%Enter above C$17.71 (+17.5%)35% 12/34+2.7% / +18.9%−77.2% / −89.2%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weeklyINAug 21, 2026 −9.3%Exit below C$14.70 (−2.5%)26% 31/118+7.6% / +18.9%−67.3% / −89.2%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · dailyOUTSep 2, 2026 −11.0%Enter above C$17.61 (+16.9%)34% 145/428+4.1% / +18.9%−87.2% / −89.2%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · dailyOUTSep 28, 2026 −5.3%Enter above C$15.66 (+3.9%)28% 218/765−0.9% / +18.9%−76.8% / −89.2%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · dailyOUTSep 8, 2026 −10.1%Enter above C$24.87 (+65.0%)35% 104/294+2.0% / +18.9%−88.2% / −89.2%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-endINSep 30, 2022 +335.5%Not on one close26% 6/23+8.0% / +12.1%−84.6% / −89.2%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · dailyOUTAug 31, 2026 −9.9%Enter above C$17.55 (+16.5%)30% 161/538+3.4% / +18.9%−63.3% / −89.2%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · dailyOUTSep 9, 2026 −11.7%Enter above C$32.94 (+118.5%)33% 85/260−0.3% / +18.9%−87.6% / −89.2%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 +4.4%Enter above C$18.24 (+21.0%)26% 50/191+2.4% / +18.9%−81.5% / −89.2%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-endINAug 31, 2026 −9.9%Exit below C$14.31 (−5.0%)33% 28/84+12.6% / +19.0%−81.6% / −89.2%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-endINMay 31, 2024 +76.5%Not on one close32% 7/22−4.4% / +9.1%−90.8% / −89.2%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · dailyINDec 31, 2025 +12.0%Not on one close38% 13/34+5.2% / +19.0%−68.7% / −89.2%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · dailyOUTSep 10, 2026 −9.5%Enter above C$19.90 (+32.0%)30% 102/338−0.2% / +18.9%−85.0% / −89.2%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTAug 13, 2026 +3.1%Not on one close57% 21/37+4.3% / +18.9%−85.0% / −89.2%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 −3.2%Not on one close64% 170/266+16.3% / +18.9%−30.1% / −89.2%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyINSep 28, 2026 −5.3%Sell above C$15.91 (+5.6%)65% 231/355+19.1% / +18.9%−52.4% / −89.2%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · dailyINOct 7, 2026 +4.4%Sell above C$16.01 (+6.3%)68% 117/171+17.5% / +18.9%−55.6% / −89.2%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · dailyINSep 17, 2026 −9.9%Not on one close66% 112/169+13.7% / +14.7%−79.6% / −89.2%
Williams %RLarry Williams · dailyINOct 8, 2026 −0.2%Not on one close60% 178/295+12.7% / +15.3%−78.9% / −89.2%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · dailyINApr 30, 2026 +15.0%Not on one close65% 46/71+8.9% / +18.9%−81.9% / −89.2%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · dailyINOct 21, 2005 +925.2%Sell above C$34.63 (+129.8%)100% 10/10+20.5% / +18.9%−89.2% / −89.2%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · dailyOUTFeb 20, 2025 +120.6%Not on one close70% 31/44+5.0% / +18.9%−22.9% / −89.2%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINSep 18, 2026 −9.8%Not on one close43% 143/331−0.6% / +18.9%−86.7% / −89.2%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyINSep 2, 2026 −11.0%Not on one close51% 211/416+8.6% / +18.9%−78.2% / −89.2%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 −0.2%Buy below C$15.07 (0.0%)57% 1080/1892+22.4% / +18.9%−59.1% / −89.2%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTMay 8, 2026 +2.2%Not on one close64% 64/100+11.0% / +15.1%−54.1% / −89.2%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −3.2%Exit below C$14.45 (−4.1%)37% 394/1056+5.1% / +18.9%−83.1% / −89.2%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-endINSep 30, 2026 −5.8%Sell above C$16.32 (+8.3%)58% 78/134+9.1% / +18.9%−86.3% / −89.2%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 −6.7%Not on one close27% 171/644+0.9% / +18.9%−90.8% / −89.2%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · dailyINJul 28, 2026 +27.0%Not on one close35% 73/209+1.6% / +15.1%−81.8% / −89.2%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · dailyOUTAug 31, 2026 −9.9%Not on one close58% 30/52+7.3% / +18.9%−88.4% / −89.2%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · dailyINJul 30, 2026 +22.6%Not on one close38% 62/165+0.0% / +19.0%−92.6% / −89.2%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · dailyOUTSep 23, 2026 −8.3%Enter above C$16.68 (+10.7%)25% 166/664+2.1% / +18.9%−75.3% / −89.2%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 −6.7%Enter above C$24.24 (+60.9%)35% 127/365−4.6% / +15.3%−88.6% / −89.2%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Enter above C$15.07 (+0.0%)34% 186/546−4.0% / +18.9%−94.7% / −89.2%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · dailyINAug 7, 2026 +3.8%Not on one close27% 31/114+10.4% / +19.0%−79.4% / −89.2%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · dailyOUTSep 21, 2026 −8.6%Not on one close34% 297/881+2.5% / +18.9%−82.8% / −89.2%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · dailyINFeb 19, 2026 +0.8%Not on one close57% 87/153+13.4% / +18.9%−82.3% / −89.2%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · dailyOUTApr 21, 2026 +9.4%Not on one close35% 34/96+8.5% / +18.9%−69.5% / −89.2%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTJul 17, 2025 +70.7%Not on one close35% 18/52+0.4% / +18.9%−34.0% / −89.2%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 +15.0%Buys Oct 3051% 22/43+11.3% / +18.9%−80.4% / −89.2%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 21, 2026 +9.4%Enter above C$16.10 (+6.9%)53% 23/43+19.8% / +18.9%−69.6% / −89.2%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · dailyOUTApr 24, 2026 +7.6%Window opens Oct 1653% 23/43+18.0% / +18.9%−76.6% / −89.2%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTJan 5, 2026 +9.7%Buys Dec 2361% 27/44+10.1% / +18.9%−12.9% / −89.2%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 −5.3%Buys Oct 2950% 262/526+6.9% / +18.9%−55.2% / −89.2%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINSep 30, 2026 −5.8%Sells Jun 3064% 7/11+5.8% / +18.9%−57.3% / −89.2%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 −11.6%Buys Nov 2451% 195/386+6.7% / +18.9%−16.9% / −89.2%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-endINDec 30, 2022 +196.1%Not on one close40% 8/20+8.0% / +18.9%−70.1% / −89.2%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Sells Oct 1648% 1088/2284+7.6% / +18.9%−95.0% / −89.2%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 −6.2%Buys Oct 2748% 167/348+5.8% / +18.9%−26.7% / −89.2%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −5.8%Sells Oct 1650% 272/541+9.2% / +18.9%−77.5% / −89.2%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmarkINJan 4, 2005Always in–+18.9%−89.2%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works
ExposureHigh5 of 10 points
  • Market swings2/3
  • Past crashes2/2
  • Debt0/3
  • Run-up1/2
  • It moves about 2.6× its index.
  • It fell about 2.0× as far as its index in past crashes.
  • It is up 129% in two years, a run-up size that crashed about half the time in history.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 · back to its old high Jan 2010

FVI−85%
TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high May 2020

FVI−48%
TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Sep 2022 · back to its old high Nov 2022

FVI−42%
TSX−14%
  • Beta2.58Moves about 2.6× as much as the TSX week to week.
  • Downside capture74%In months the TSX fell, this fell 74% as much on average.
  • Two-year change+129%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
  • From 52-week high−19%
  • Debt to equity0.14×
  • Net debt / EBITDANet cashHolds more cash than debt.
  • Interest cover16.5×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Gold · Fortuna Mining Corp. engages in the precious and base metal mining and related activities in Argentina, Côte d'Ivoire, Mexico, Peru, and Senegal. The company operates through Mansfield, Sango, and Bateas segments. It operates the Lindero gold mine and the Séguéla gold mine, as well as the Caylloma silver, lead, and zinc mine. The company also holds Bambadji advanced gold exploration project located in Senegal. The company was formerly known as Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. and changed its name to Fortuna Mining Corp.

Size and valuation
Market capC$4.5BWhat the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)$1.2BTotal sales.
P/E ratio9.3×Buyers pay C$9 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E6.2×Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book1.8×Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.
Profit and growth
Profit margin32.0%Keeps 32¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth+38.2%Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth+101.4%Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity24.1%Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow$364MCash left after running and investing in the business.
Balance sheet
Total equity$1.7BWhat it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt$234MLoans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash$614MCash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity0.14×Comfortable.
Interest cover16.5×Interest is easily paid from profit.
Wall Street
Average analyst targetC$19.3628% above the close, from 3 analysts (range C$18.93 to C$19.90).
Consensus ratingBuyAnalysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

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