Financials

Fairfax Financial (FFH)

C$2,287.96 +1.6% on the day·−5.7% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Hold44 / 100

Hold: 44 is between your Sell line (40) and Buy line (60). Off the high (−12% from its 1-year high) scores 60 and lifts it; Plays in (35%) scores 35 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	FFH	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	35%	35	40	14.0
Off the high	−12% from its 1-year high	60	30	18.0
Trend	−1% vs 200-day	39	30	11.7

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for FFH

Factor	FFH	Points	What it is
Plays in	35%	35	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+18% · 7 analysts · capped: below 200-day	50	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	2.7 · hold	14	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	8.1×	96	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	9.7×	88	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	0.28	94	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	0.9×	90	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	1.2×	91	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	0.9%	28	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+3%	32	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	−0%	10	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	12%	52	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	16%	62	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.46×	55	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−12% from its 1-year high	60	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	−1% vs 200-day	39	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	−6%	27	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	0/10 · low	100	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on FFH

35 of the 100 plays hold FFH right now.
The trend-following and breakout plays mostly say out.
It closed 1% below its 200-day average and 12% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$2,701.94, 18% above the close (7 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in35 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow0 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple0.99×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−1%). Higher than on 29% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about FFH now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn FFH: right 27 of 54 · Out since Jan 16, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn FFH: right 24 of 61 · Out since Jun 1, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumOUT44% of 8,156 calls rightOn FFH: right 14 of 28 · Out since Sep 30, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn FFH: right 122 of 186 · Out since Sep 14, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn FFH: right 34 of 51 · Out since Jul 3, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn FFH: right 64 of 157 · In since Jul 13, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn FFH: right 22 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

FFH, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved FFH lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P/TSX; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Fri Sep 18−2.4% against the S&P/TSX1.7× a normal day

FFH −2.6%, the S&P/TSX −0.2% that session; −3.2% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on FFH was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for FFH starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.2%. The 25 other Financials stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.3% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Wed Sep 16+2.5% against the S&P/TSX1.9× a normal day

FFH +2.3%, the S&P/TSX −0.3% that session; −1.9% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on FFH was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for FFH starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.3%. The 25 other Financials stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.1% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Tue Sep 8−2.4% against the S&P/TSX1.8× a normal day

FFH −3.4%, the S&P/TSX −1.1% that session; +0.9% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on FFH was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for FFH starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −1.1%. The 25 other Financials stocks Be The Puck covers moved −1.7% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on FFH

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following9 of 30 in Breakouts & channels2 of 15 in Momentum7 of 17 in Mean reversion8 of 15 in Volume & money flow3 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on FFH went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below C$2,235.09 (−2.3%)	26% 169/658	+6.3% / +14.1%	−66.0% / −56.2%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 +0.7%	Enter above C$2,288.46 (+0.0%)	31% 29/93	+13.1% / +14.1%	−30.5% / −56.2%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$2,248.94 (−1.7%)	21% 80/388	+9.1% / +14.1%	−57.2% / −56.2%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Jan 19, 2026 −4.7%	Not on one close	16% 24/148	+3.3% / +14.1%	−36.3% / −56.2%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	May 1, 2026 +5.4%	Enter above C$2,515.20 (+9.9%)	20% 18/90	+6.7% / +14.1%	−40.5% / −56.2%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Mar 27, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above C$2,552.42 (+11.6%)	29% 28/96	+8.2% / +14.1%	−33.2% / −56.2%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +1.2%	Enter above C$2,291.20 (+0.1%)	38% 15/39	+11.3% / +14.1%	−32.7% / −56.2%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	OUT	Aug 10, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above C$2,318.98 (+1.4%)	13% 24/182	+8.1% / +14.1%	−45.6% / −56.2%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	OUT	Mar 12, 2026 +1.1%	Enter above C$5,759.33 (+151.7%)	41% 13/32	+7.9% / +14.1%	−50.0% / −56.2%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Apr 27, 2026 −3.1%	Enter above C$6,141.53 (+168.4%)	13% 17/134	+6.8% / +14.1%	−43.9% / −56.2%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 +0.7%	Enter above C$2,257.63 (−1.3%)	37% 51/137	+7.7% / +14.1%	−40.3% / −56.2%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below C$2,251.53 (−1.6%)	24% 188/768	+7.0% / +14.1%	−60.5% / −56.2%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below C$2,131.23 (−6.9%)	35% 90/254	+6.1% / +14.1%	−42.0% / −56.2%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +2.7%	Enter above C$2,538.37 (+10.9%)	33% 9/27	+11.2% / +14.3%	−36.2% / −56.2%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above C$2,546.38 (+11.3%)	29% 38/131	+7.7% / +14.1%	−46.3% / −56.2%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 +0.7%	Enter above C$2,347.41 (+2.6%)	27% 34/127	+9.2% / +14.1%	−39.4% / −56.2%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 +1.5%	Enter above C$2,327.71 (+1.7%)	34% 52/153	+7.0% / +14.1%	−40.5% / −56.2%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 +0.7%	Not on one close	43% 124/289	+7.7% / +14.1%	−31.0% / −56.2%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$2,194.80 (−4.1%)	41% 243/590	+9.3% / +14.1%	−47.9% / −56.2%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 −0.7%	Exit below C$2,178.41 (−4.8%)	39% 84/218	+8.1% / +14.1%	−39.7% / −56.2%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$2,181.36 (−4.7%)	37% 174/472	+8.9% / +14.1%	−48.7% / −56.2%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jan 16, 2026 −6.1%	Not on one close	37% 61/163	+8.5% / +14.1%	−22.5% / −56.2%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above C$2,321.76 (+1.5%)	30% 56/189	+8.6% / +14.1%	−47.5% / −56.2%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Jul 17, 2026 −1.3%	Enter above C$2,307.98 (+0.9%)	35% 61/173	+8.7% / +14.1%	−43.1% / −56.2%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$1,933.59 (−15.5%)	33% 73/224	+12.2% / +14.1%	−36.7% / −56.2%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	38% 86/224	+9.5% / +14.1%	−43.6% / −56.2%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above C$2,313.29 (+1.1%)	33% 52/159	+9.8% / +14.1%	−37.0% / −56.2%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Aug 19, 2026 +2.0%	Enter above C$2,610.25 (+14.1%)	35% 36/103	+11.1% / +14.1%	−33.3% / −56.2%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 +1.8%	Not on one close	34% 72/213	+4.2% / +14.1%	−36.8% / −56.2%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Jan 16, 2026 −6.1%	Not on one close	50% 27/54	+2.7% / +14.1%	−21.5% / −56.2%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +3.1%	Enter above C$2,343.17 (+2.4%)	38% 48/127	+8.3% / +14.1%	−34.4% / −56.2%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Apr 28, 2026 −2.3%	Enter above C$2,474.63 (+8.2%)	32% 45/139	+6.2% / +14.1%	−28.3% / −56.2%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Apr 28, 2026 −2.3%	Enter above C$2,474.63 (+8.2%)	36% 32/89	+8.2% / +14.1%	−24.0% / −56.2%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 +1.5%	Enter above C$3,306.67 (+44.5%)	35% 36/104	+3.4% / +14.1%	−32.8% / −56.2%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Jan 16, 2026 −6.1%	Enter above C$2,343.17 (+2.4%)	37% 42/113	+6.8% / +14.1%	−38.9% / −56.2%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Aug 10, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above C$2,333.24 (+2.0%)	32% 50/157	+3.1% / +14.1%	−43.6% / −56.2%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jul 14, 2026 −1.4%	Enter above C$2,309.08 (+0.9%)	30% 70/236	+3.6% / +14.1%	−41.2% / −56.2%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Aug 11, 2026 −0.2%	Enter above C$2,306.07 (+0.8%)	34% 65/189	+4.8% / +14.1%	−37.5% / −56.2%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 17, 2026 +1.5%	Enter above C$2,327.17 (+1.7%)	34% 60/177	+8.6% / +14.1%	−43.8% / −56.2%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Jun 1, 2026 +8.3%	Enter above C$2,494.98 (+9.0%)	39% 24/61	+10.0% / +14.1%	−47.0% / −56.2%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$2,213.94 (−3.2%)	28% 86/306	+8.9% / +14.1%	−51.2% / −56.2%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 −5.1%	Not on one close	26% 46/176	+1.4% / +14.1%	−32.9% / −56.2%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Jun 22, 2026 +2.4%	Enter above C$2,416.62 (+5.6%)	32% 52/164	+2.6% / +14.1%	−19.1% / −56.2%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.1%	Exit below C$2,199.34 (−3.9%)	30% 223/754	+2.5% / +14.1%	−70.9% / −56.2%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Jul 31, 2025 −5.9%	Not on one close	25% 7/28	+2.7% / +14.1%	−7.4% / −56.2%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	May 29, 2026 +6.6%	Enter above C$2,342.08 (+2.4%)	32% 7/22	+11.2% / +13.9%	−33.5% / −56.2%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +3.1%	Not on one close	50% 14/28	+12.2% / +13.9%	−33.5% / −56.2%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Jan 30, 2026 +1.8%	Enter above C$2,604.20 (+13.8%)	39% 11/28	+10.7% / +13.9%	−33.5% / −56.2%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +1.9%	Not on one close	16% 25/158	+7.2% / +14.1%	−38.4% / −56.2%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	May 29, 2026 +6.6%	Enter above C$2,473.07 (+8.1%)	22% 4/18	+7.6% / +14.1%	−43.8% / −56.2%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Apr 17, 2026 −6.9%	Enter above C$2,373.09 (+3.7%)	32% 38/118	+8.4% / +14.1%	−38.7% / −56.2%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +2.9%	Exit below C$2,137.33 (−6.6%)	32% 142/438	+6.6% / +14.1%	−57.3% / −56.2%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +2.9%	Exit below C$2,235.06 (−2.3%)	26% 215/824	+2.3% / +14.1%	−78.5% / −56.2%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +2.9%	Exit below C$2,040.04 (−10.8%)	39% 116/300	+8.2% / +14.1%	−37.9% / −56.2%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Nov 30, 2020 +466.7%	Exit below C$2,306.91 (+0.8%)	45% 5/11	+15.4% / +15.6%	−43.2% / −56.2%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$2,267.49 (−0.9%)	32% 179/562	+7.4% / +14.1%	−28.5% / −56.2%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$2,063.86 (−9.8%)	37% 100/272	+7.4% / +14.1%	−43.4% / −56.2%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2026 −0.9%	Enter above C$2,329.12 (+1.8%)	31% 55/177	+9.3% / +14.1%	−40.7% / −56.2%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Aug 31, 2026 +1.2%	Enter above C$2,260.50 (−1.2%)	34% 26/77	+12.6% / +13.9%	−33.8% / −56.2%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +3.1%	Not on one close	42% 8/19	+12.9% / +15.3%	−33.5% / −56.2%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 +3.1%	Not on one close	53% 18/34	+12.3% / +13.9%	−29.3% / −56.2%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.6%	Exit below C$2,144.72 (−6.3%)	33% 112/340	+6.8% / +14.1%	−48.8% / −56.2%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jul 7, 2026 −5.1%	Not on one close	64% 23/36	+4.8% / +14.1%	−49.2% / −56.2%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Jul 24, 2026 −1.6%	Not on one close	60% 199/332	+4.5% / +14.1%	−27.6% / −56.2%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Jul 27, 2026 −4.3%	Not on one close	65% 259/396	+6.7% / +14.1%	−41.8% / −56.2%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 +0.9%	Buy below C$2,163.57 (−5.4%)	66% 122/186	+2.8% / +14.1%	−49.9% / −56.2%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Jul 23, 2026 +0.2%	Not on one close	62% 93/151	+7.7% / +14.1%	−42.0% / −56.2%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Sep 10, 2026 +3.0%	Exit below C$2,267.98 (−0.9%)	55% 161/291	+3.4% / +14.1%	−65.4% / −56.2%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Jul 21, 2026 −0.1%	Not on one close	60% 51/85	+6.7% / +14.1%	−44.5% / −56.2%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +1,689.9%	Sell above C$5,604.97 (+145.0%)	–	+14.1% / +14.1%	−56.2% / −56.2%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Feb 12, 2024 +76.2%	Not on one close	50% 9/18	+1.6% / +14.1%	−18.9% / −56.2%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +0.9%	Not on one close	45% 137/306	+5.9% / +14.1%	−63.8% / −56.2%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.1%	Exit below C$2,271.43 (−0.7%)	52% 226/435	+6.2% / +14.1%	−56.7% / −56.2%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +2.9%	Buy below C$2,287.94 (0.0%)	62% 1259/2016	+13.9% / +14.1%	−27.8% / −56.2%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Feb 18, 2026 −3.9%	Not on one close	58% 57/98	+4.3% / +14.1%	−36.2% / −56.2%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.1%	Exit below C$2,176.09 (−4.9%)	36% 385/1060	+3.9% / +14.1%	−72.8% / −56.2%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Aug 31, 2026 +1.2%	Sell above C$2,263.79 (−1.1%)	55% 69/125	+4.6% / +14.1%	−49.0% / −56.2%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +2.9%	Not on one close	23% 192/826	−0.7% / +14.1%	−79.3% / −56.2%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 +2.2%	Not on one close	36% 69/191	+3.2% / +14.1%	−47.3% / −56.2%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Jul 3, 2026 −5.6%	Not on one close	67% 34/51	+8.1% / +14.1%	−56.0% / −56.2%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 +3.1%	Not on one close	30% 50/164	+8.1% / +14.1%	−54.7% / −56.2%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +2.9%	Exit below C$2,232.98 (−2.4%)	25% 190/764	+2.0% / +14.1%	−75.8% / −56.2%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 +2.9%	Enter above C$2,252.37 (−1.6%)	36% 132/363	+10.8% / +14.1%	−43.5% / −56.2%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +1.9%	Enter above C$2,287.94 (0.0%)	33% 174/526	+2.1% / +14.1%	−64.2% / −56.2%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +1.9%	Not on one close	36% 32/90	+9.4% / +14.1%	−52.2% / −56.2%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +1.6%	Not on one close	37% 318/856	+8.7% / +14.1%	−57.5% / −56.2%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Jul 13, 2026 −3.2%	Exit below C$2,258.90 (−1.3%)	41% 64/157	+5.5% / +14.1%	−54.0% / −56.2%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Oct 29, 2025 +2.3%	Not on one close	33% 35/105	+9.6% / +14.1%	−29.9% / −56.2%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Aug 8, 2025 −2.5%	Not on one close	29% 21/72	−0.8% / +14.1%	−36.5% / −56.2%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −2.7%	Buys Oct 30	51% 22/43	+10.1% / +14.1%	−45.4% / −56.2%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +2.9%	Window opens Apr 1	48% 21/44	+8.7% / +14.1%	−45.9% / −56.2%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 27, 2026 −3.1%	Window opens Oct 16	56% 24/43	+9.8% / +14.1%	−44.9% / −56.2%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 −10.5%	Buys Dec 23	34% 15/44	+1.9% / +14.1%	−8.1% / −56.2%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +3.5%	Buys Oct 29	49% 257/526	+1.6% / +14.1%	−47.4% / −56.2%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 +3.1%	Sells Jun 30	36% 4/11	+5.9% / +14.1%	−34.9% / −56.2%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −0.4%	Buys Nov 24	47% 180/386	+2.1% / +14.1%	−14.5% / −56.2%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +200.4%	Not on one close	60% 12/20	+11.3% / +14.1%	−42.3% / −56.2%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	50% 1143/2284	+6.3% / +14.1%	−52.6% / −56.2%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −0.8%	Buys Oct 27	47% 162/348	+1.8% / +14.1%	−11.2% / −56.2%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +3.1%	Sells Oct 16	51% 278/541	+6.5% / +14.1%	−41.0% / −56.2%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 4, 2005	Always in	–	+14.1%	−56.2%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow0 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

Nothing on the checklist stands out.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Oct 2007 · back to its old high Oct 2007

FFH−6%

TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Dec 2021

FFH−35%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Mar 2022 · back to its old high Mar 2022

FFH−5%

TSX−14%

Beta0.56Moves about 0.6× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture−77%In months the TSX fell, this fell -77% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+33%
From 52-week high−12%
Debt to equity0.54×
Net debt / EBITDA0.8×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover8.8×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Insurance - Property & Casualty · Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance and reinsurance, and investment management services in Canada, the United States, the Middle East and Asia, and internationally. It operates through Property and Casualty Insurance and Reinsurance; Life insurance and Run-off; and Non-Insurance Companies segments.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$51.2B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$38.5B	Total sales.
P/E ratio	8.1×	Buyers pay C$8 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	9.7×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit.
Price to book	1.2×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	11.6%	Keeps 12¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	−0.5%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+2.9%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	16.5%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$4.8B	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$26.5B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$14.3B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$8.3B	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.54×	Moderate.
Interest cover	8.8×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$2,701.94	18% above the close, from 7 analysts (range C$1,954.46 to C$3,485.15).
Consensus rating	Hold	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.92%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

FFH: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Financials: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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