Oct 13 close Sign in

Metals & mining

Ero Copper (ERO)

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy71 / 100

Buy: 71 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Trend (+23% vs 200-day) scores 93 and lifts it; Plays in (51%) scores 51 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weightEROPointsWeightAdds
Plays in51%514020.4
Off the high−7% from its 1-year high773023.1
Trend+23% vs 200-day933027.9
Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for ERO
FactorEROPointsWhat it is
Plays in51%51The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside+4% · 16 analysts34How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating2.3 · buy33The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E12.8×89Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E7.5×93Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG––P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth.
Price to sales3.6×50Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book3.1×47Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yieldnone0Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth+25%55Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth+74%92Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin30%82Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity31%84Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity0.47×54Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high−7% from its 1-year high77How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend+23% vs 200-day93How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum+74%88The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure5/10 · high50The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on ERO

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in51 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.
Crash exposureHigh5 of 10 on the storm testMayer Multiple1.23×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+23%). Higher than on 72% of days since 2018. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about ERO now.

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved ERO lately

Its biggest move against the S&P/TSX in the last 30 sessions, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Sep 8+9.5% against the S&P/TSX2.5× a normal day

ERO +8.5%, the S&P/TSX −1.1% that session; −0.8% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on ERO was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for ERO starts Oct 1, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −1.1%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.2% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on ERO

All 100 plays, by family.

Calls right: how often the play's calls on ERO went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2017. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

PlayCallSinceNext moveCalls rightAnnual returnWorst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −3.0%Exit below C$51.68 (−0.7%)31% 69/224+18.7% / +26.0%−65.0% / −62.8%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weeklyINAug 7, 2026 +9.0%Exit below C$44.68 (−14.2%)22% 12/55+10.9% / +25.6%−65.0% / −62.8%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · dailyINSep 18, 2026 +8.3%Exit below C$49.11 (−5.7%)22% 31/140+13.0% / +24.3%−55.0% / −62.8%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · dailyINAug 21, 2026 −3.9%Exit below C$50.17 (−3.6%)17% 12/72+1.3% / +22.2%−56.1% / −62.8%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weeklyINAug 7, 2026 +9.0%Exit below C$42.51 (−18.3%)21% 9/42+6.5% / +21.6%−55.9% / −62.8%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weeklyINAug 7, 2026 +9.0%Exit below C$43.91 (−15.7%)19% 9/48+5.3% / +21.0%−57.9% / −62.8%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-endINAug 31, 2026 +1.0%Exit below C$42.88 (−17.6%)38% 6/16+18.2% / +24.7%−58.3% / −62.8%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · dailyINAug 4, 2026 +27.5%Exit below C$42.22 (−18.9%)23% 13/56+16.9% / +25.0%−51.6% / −62.8%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · dailyINJul 17, 2025 +162.7%Not on one close50% 5/10+21.9% / +25.0%−56.0% / −62.8%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · dailyINAug 4, 2026 +27.5%Exit below C$42.22 (−18.9%)33% 10/30+20.2% / +24.7%−36.7% / −62.8%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weeklyINAug 7, 2026 +9.0%Exit below C$52.12 (+0.1%)33% 20/61+11.1% / +24.2%−57.5% / −62.8%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −3.0%Exit below C$51.64 (−0.8%)28% 77/277+18.9% / +26.1%−62.4% / −62.8%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 +7.9%Enter above C$60.78 (+16.8%)32% 34/105+14.1% / +22.2%−70.0% / −62.8%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · dailyINSep 18, 2025 +125.0%Not on one close50% 4/8+17.8% / +23.5%−47.6% / −62.8%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · dailyINAug 6, 2026 +19.3%Exit below C$39.80 (−23.5%)26% 16/62+5.8% / +24.5%−58.7% / −62.8%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · dailyINAug 4, 2026 +27.5%Exit below C$44.59 (−14.3%)22% 11/49+13.6% / +26.1%−53.6% / −62.8%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −3.7%Exit below C$46.87 (−10.0%)32% 26/82+4.6% / +26.4%−72.7% / −62.8%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · dailyINSep 28, 2026 −1.8%Not on one close42% 50/120+10.0% / +26.4%−66.8% / −62.8%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · dailyINSep 22, 2026 −0.8%Exit below C$48.82 (−6.2%)40% 81/204+24.3% / +26.9%−59.7% / −62.8%
AroonTushar S. Chande · dailyINOct 6, 2026 −3.4%Exit below C$44.30 (−14.9%)35% 29/82+7.0% / +26.2%−58.8% / −62.8%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 +1.8%Enter above C$55.34 (+6.3%)40% 75/189+17.0% / +29.1%−65.3% / −62.8%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 +11.3%Not on one close40% 29/73+4.1% / +26.1%−65.5% / −62.8%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · dailyINAug 4, 2026 +27.5%Exit below C$39.53 (−24.1%)31% 24/78+12.1% / +24.0%−59.4% / −62.8%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weeklyINSep 25, 2026 −2.7%Exit below C$51.89 (−0.3%)41% 51/124+23.6% / +26.6%−55.2% / −62.8%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · dailyINSep 25, 2026 −2.7%Exit below C$22.32 (−57.1%)29% 30/102+8.5% / +24.0%−58.1% / −62.8%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 +1.8%Not on one close39% 37/95+21.1% / +22.2%−53.6% / −62.8%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · dailyINAug 4, 2026 +27.5%Exit below C$39.79 (−23.6%)30% 22/73+2.9% / +24.3%−67.2% / −62.8%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · dailyINAug 6, 2026 +19.3%Not on one close33% 15/46+15.9% / +24.3%−52.3% / −62.8%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · dailyOUTOct 9, 2026 −3.0%Not on one close42% 31/74+18.0% / +22.4%−39.5% / −62.8%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTNov 4, 2025 +85.7%Not on one close31% 5/16−0.3% / +24.0%−20.6% / −62.8%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · dailyOUTSep 15, 2026 +14.9%Enter above C$55.67 (+6.9%)42% 22/52+11.3% / +26.4%−73.9% / −62.8%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTSep 14, 2026 +11.3%Enter above C$55.67 (+6.9%)30% 19/64−2.3% / +23.8%−72.2% / −62.8%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · dailyOUTSep 15, 2026 +14.9%Enter above C$56.62 (+8.8%)31% 13/42+1.2% / +23.8%−64.5% / −62.8%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 +7.6%Enter above C$55.85 (+7.3%)31% 15/48+0.4% / +24.3%−60.0% / −62.8%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · dailyOUTMar 5, 2026 +32.1%Not on one close36% 18/50+3.7% / +26.4%−58.2% / −62.8%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 +7.6%Enter above C$58.38 (+12.1%)32% 24/74−1.3% / +26.1%−73.9% / −62.8%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 +7.6%Enter above C$57.45 (+10.3%)34% 28/82+10.7% / +26.7%−69.1% / −62.8%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −3.7%Exit below C$47.91 (−8.0%)31% 28/89+7.8% / +26.6%−77.8% / −62.8%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyINSep 25, 2026 −2.7%Exit below C$46.94 (−9.8%)34% 29/86+8.4% / +26.4%−72.6% / −62.8%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · dailyINSep 30, 2026 −0.4%Exit below C$49.46 (−5.0%)31% 28/90+16.4% / +26.7%−67.6% / −62.8%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyINSep 22, 2026 −0.8%Exit below C$48.37 (−7.1%)26% 39/150+11.4% / +26.6%−68.7% / −62.8%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −3.6%Not on one close28% 24/85+4.4% / +26.4%−43.6% / −62.8%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · dailyOUTAug 17, 2026 +7.5%Not on one close38% 16/42+9.9% / +26.1%−17.8% / −62.8%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −3.0%Exit below C$51.80 (−0.5%)34% 96/282+14.6% / +29.1%−69.8% / −62.8%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTSep 1, 2026 +7.6%Not on one close50% 8/16+6.6% / +24.8%−21.5% / −62.8%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-endINOct 31, 2025 +73.8%Exit below C$31.06 (−40.3%)38% 6/16+8.2% / +22.5%−62.6% / −62.8%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-endINOct 31, 2025 +73.8%Not on one close25% 3/12+2.6% / +22.5%−73.0% / −62.8%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-endINNov 28, 2025 +47.8%Exit below C$34.53 (−33.7%)50% 5/10+8.6% / +22.5%−54.5% / −62.8%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · dailyOUTApr 17, 2026 +31.3%Not on one close18% 12/65+7.5% / +24.5%−43.2% / −62.8%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-endOUTMar 31, 2026 +40.4%Enter above C$53.06 (+1.9%)36% 4/11+4.4% / +20.3%−36.7% / −62.8%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weeklyINAug 7, 2026 +9.0%Exit below C$44.63 (−14.3%)23% 10/44+9.7% / +24.8%−68.2% / −62.8%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · dailyOUTOct 8, 2026 +1.8%Enter above C$54.92 (+5.5%)35% 60/170+20.6% / +24.0%−55.3% / −62.8%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Enter above C$53.00 (+1.8%)35% 90/256+25.2% / +24.0%−61.3% / −62.8%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −3.7%Exit below C$50.85 (−2.3%)36% 45/124+7.8% / +22.6%−70.4% / −62.8%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-endINSep 30, 2025 +84.7%Not on one close40% 2/5+7.2% / +17.6%−49.6% / −62.6%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 −3.4%Enter above C$55.63 (+6.9%)32% 82/258+10.4% / +26.4%−43.3% / −62.8%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · dailyINOct 5, 2026 −5.1%Exit below C$53.60 (+3.0%)34% 39/114+8.1% / +24.3%−74.7% / −62.8%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · dailyINAug 4, 2026 +27.5%Exit below C$39.01 (−25.1%)31% 23/74+12.2% / +24.3%−59.4% / −62.8%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-endINJul 31, 2026 +38.3%Exit below C$44.58 (−14.4%)46% 17/37+12.5% / +22.5%−67.3% / −62.8%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-endINOct 31, 2025 +73.8%Not on one close20% 2/10+5.2% / +20.3%−63.9% / −62.6%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · dailyINOct 31, 2025 +73.8%Not on one close30% 6/20−5.6% / +22.5%−76.5% / −62.8%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · dailyOUTOct 7, 2026 −0.6%Enter above C$57.08 (+9.6%)34% 44/129+16.6% / +22.2%−56.4% / −62.8%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · dailyOUTAug 13, 2026 +8.7%Not on one close44% 7/16+11.6% / +26.8%−53.4% / −62.8%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTOct 2, 2026 −3.7%Buy C$42.22–C$47.11 (−9.5%)48% 49/103−1.6% / +25.0%−46.5% / −62.8%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTOct 2, 2026 −3.7%Buy C$42.22–C$51.14 (−1.8%)57% 74/129−1.6% / +25.0%−72.3% / −62.8%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · dailyOUTAug 13, 2025 +170.0%Buy below C$45.62 (−12.4%)59% 40/68−0.4% / +26.7%−54.5% / −62.8%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · dailyOUTSep 30, 2026 −0.4%Not on one close71% 54/76+24.8% / +26.9%−52.4% / −62.8%
Williams %RLarry Williams · dailyOUTSep 23, 2026 +1.2%Not on one close64% 72/112+6.8% / +26.9%−61.1% / −62.8%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · dailyOUTJun 4, 2026 +21.9%Not on one close66% 25/38+20.6% / +29.6%−57.1% / −62.8%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · dailyINAug 3, 2018 +531.0%Sell above C$102.05 (+96.0%)–+25.0% / +25.0%−62.8% / −62.8%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · dailyOUTJul 31, 2025 +177.7%Not on one close54% 13/24+4.5% / +22.2%−21.7% / −62.8%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTOct 1, 2026 +2.6%Enter above C$52.44 (+0.7%)47% 58/124+15.1% / +26.1%−62.4% / −62.8%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · dailyINOct 9, 2026 −3.0%Not on one close59% 105/177+15.3% / +26.1%−48.4% / −62.8%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · dailyOUTOct 2, 2026 −3.7%Buy below C$52.06 (0.0%)54% 378/705+3.3% / +30.3%−69.2% / −62.8%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · dailyOUTSep 25, 2026 −2.7%Not on one close63% 24/38+2.1% / +25.0%−58.2% / −62.8%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 −3.4%Enter above C$55.25 (+6.1%)34% 147/432+0.9% / +24.0%−81.3% / −62.8%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-endOUTAug 31, 2026 +1.0%Buy below C$53.33 (+2.4%)65% 34/52+18.9% / +26.1%−60.8% / −62.8%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 −3.4%Not on one close28% 77/271+24.9% / +26.7%−37.2% / −62.8%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · dailyINSep 18, 2026 +8.3%Not on one close44% 38/87+26.3% / +26.4%−59.6% / −62.8%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · dailyOUTMay 26, 2026 +30.8%Not on one close50% 10/20+15.0% / +26.8%−61.3% / −62.8%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · dailyINAug 4, 2026 +27.5%Exit below C$46.20 (−11.2%)42% 15/36+17.4% / +23.2%−40.0% / −62.8%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · dailyOUTOct 13, 2026 0.0%Enter above C$52.77 (+1.4%)31% 80/259+18.9% / +26.1%−71.1% / −62.8%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · dailyINSep 24, 2026 −0.8%Exit below C$46.48 (−10.7%)37% 49/132+19.9% / +26.7%−67.3% / −62.8%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · dailyINSep 18, 2026 +8.3%Not on one close37% 95/256+15.8% / +26.4%−70.5% / −62.8%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · dailyINSep 2, 2025 +155.1%Not on one close47% 17/36+30.6% / +22.5%−46.6% / −62.8%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · dailyOUTOct 6, 2026 −3.4%Not on one close38% 134/357+14.0% / +23.9%−74.0% / −62.8%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · dailyOUTAug 28, 2026 −3.6%Not on one close52% 22/42+10.9% / +29.5%−68.5% / −62.8%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · dailyOUTFeb 12, 2026 +27.3%Not on one close35% 12/34+7.9% / +29.9%−49.3% / −62.8%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · dailyOUTFeb 21, 2025 +186.4%Not on one close38% 12/32+3.5% / +26.6%−17.4% / −62.8%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 30, 2026 +48.3%Buys Oct 3061% 11/18+24.5% / +30.3%−60.6% / −62.8%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTApr 17, 2026 +31.3%Enter above C$55.04 (+5.7%)56% 10/18+13.3% / +24.0%−60.6% / −62.8%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · dailyOUTApr 21, 2026 +41.1%Window opens Oct 1667% 12/18+18.7% / +24.0%−60.6% / −62.8%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyOUTJan 5, 2026 +24.6%Buys Dec 2356% 10/18+8.0% / +30.3%−5.3% / −62.8%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · dailyOUTOct 5, 2026 −5.1%Buys Oct 2947% 102/216+5.6% / +30.3%−49.9% / −62.8%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · dailyINSep 30, 2026 −0.4%Sells Jun 3060% 3/5+16.1% / +30.3%−29.0% / −62.8%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyOUTSep 4, 2026 +7.9%Buys Nov 2454% 90/166+10.2% / +30.3%−9.4% / −62.8%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-endINDec 30, 2022 +179.3%Not on one close17% 1/6+19.8% / +23.9%−59.3% / −62.8%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · dailyINOct 13, 2026 0.0%Sells Oct 1650% 470/937+15.6% / +30.3%−58.5% / −62.8%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · dailyOUTSep 16, 2026 +15.3%Buys Oct 2744% 63/142+0.8% / +30.3%−20.7% / −62.8%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · dailyINOct 2, 2026 −3.7%Sells Oct 1653% 118/222+11.9% / +30.3%−57.8% / −62.8%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmarkINOct 19, 2017Always in–+30.7%−62.8%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works
ExposureHigh5 of 10 points
  • Market swings3/3
  • Past crashes2/2
  • Debt0/3
  • Run-up0/2
  • It moves about 2.0× its index.
  • It fell about 2.2× as far as its index in past crashes.

Past crashes, peak to low

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Jun 2020

ERO−48%
TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Aug 2022 · back to its old high Dec 2022

ERO−44%
TSX−14%
  • Beta1.97Moves about 2.0× as much as the TSX week to week.
  • Downside capture181%In months the TSX fell, this fell 181% as much on average.
  • Two-year change+81%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
  • From 52-week high−7%
  • Debt to equity0.61×
  • Net debt / EBITDA0.9×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
  • Interest cover22.5×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Copper · Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship asset includes Caraíba operations that comprise the production and sale of copper concentrates located in Bahia State, Brazil, as well as gold and silver produced and sold as by-products. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Size and valuation
Market capC$5.4BWhat the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)$1.0BTotal sales.
P/E ratio12.8×Buyers pay C$13 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E7.5×Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book3.1×Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.
Profit and growth
Profit margin29.8%Keeps 30¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth+73.9%Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth+25.0%Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity30.8%Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow$47.0MCash left after running and investing in the business.
Balance sheet
Total equity$936MWhat it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt$573MLoans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash$102MCash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity0.61×Moderate.
Interest cover22.5×Interest is easily paid from profit.
Wall Street
Average analyst targetC$54.214% above the close, from 16 analysts (range C$45.00 to C$61.00).
Consensus ratingBuyAnalysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

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