Consumer & retail

Canadian Tire (CTC.A)

C$192.68 +0.1% on the day·+19.4% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Buy61 / 100

Buy: 61 is at or above your Buy line of 60. Off the high (−7% from its 1-year high) scores 77 and lifts it; Plays in (53%) scores 53 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	CTC.A	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	53%	53	40	21.2
Off the high	−7% from its 1-year high	77	30	23.1
Trend	+4% vs 200-day	55	30	16.5

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for CTC.A

Factor	CTC.A	Points	What it is
Plays in	53%	53	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+7% · 10 analysts	39	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	–	–	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	15.1×	82	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	12.4×	74	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	0.32	93	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	0.6×	94	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	1.7×	83	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	3.7%	79	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+78%	77	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+2%	16	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	4%	31	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	11%	45	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	1.65×	12	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−7% from its 1-year high	77	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	+4% vs 200-day	55	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	+19%	56	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	3/10 · moderate	70	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on CTC.A

53 of the 100 plays hold CTC.A right now.
The momentum and volume plays mostly say in; the mean-reversion and pattern plays mostly say out.
It closed 4% above its 200-day average and 7% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads moderate: it fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes and carries 2.0× as much debt as equity.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$206.60, 7% above the close (10 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in53 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureModerate3 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple1.04×Price ÷ its 200-day average (+4%). Higher than on 47% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about CTC.A now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn CTC.A: right 18 of 40 · Out since Mar 19, 2026 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopIN37% of 36,314 calls rightOn CTC.A: right 22 of 52 · In since Jul 28, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn CTC.A: right 17 of 30 · In since Jul 31, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionOUT64% of 53,095 calls rightOn CTC.A: right 115 of 184 · Out since Sep 25, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn CTC.A: right 23 of 46 · Out since Aug 28, 2024 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchOUT50% of 38,976 calls rightOn CTC.A: right 94 of 173 · Out since Oct 1, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn CTC.A: right 30 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

CTC.A, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved CTC.A lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P/TSX; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Mon Sep 28+2.5% against the S&P/TSX1.9× a normal day

CTC.A +1.6%, the S&P/TSX −0.9% that session; +3.0% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on CTC.A was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for CTC.A starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.9%. The 33 other Consumer & retail stocks Be The Puck covers moved −0.1% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Wed Sep 16+1.8% against the S&P/TSX1.4× a normal day

CTC.A +1.6%, the S&P/TSX −0.3% that session; −1.2% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on CTC.A was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for CTC.A starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.3%. The 33 other Consumer & retail stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.3% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Fri Sep 11−1.7% against the S&P/TSX1.3× a normal day

CTC.A −1.1%, the S&P/TSX +0.5% that session; −1.2% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on CTC.A was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for CTC.A starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved +0.5%. The 33 other Consumer & retail stocks Be The Puck covers moved +0.4% on average, so most of the move was its own.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on CTC.A

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following18 of 30 in Breakouts & channels5 of 15 in Momentum16 of 17 in Mean reversion2 of 15 in Volume & money flow8 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns0 of 3 in Calendar4 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on CTC.A went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.0%	Exit below C$190.82 (−1.0%)	25% 166/652	−0.6% / +8.3%	−75.2% / −58.2%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +0.0%	Exit below C$190.36 (−1.2%)	22% 27/122	+2.1% / +8.3%	−39.7% / −58.2%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.1%	Exit below C$191.13 (−0.8%)	23% 89/386	+1.3% / +8.3%	−44.6% / −58.2%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Aug 24, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above C$203.15 (+5.4%)	14% 18/133	−1.5% / +8.3%	−35.4% / −58.2%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	IN	Sep 25, 2026 +2.2%	Exit below C$189.38 (−1.7%)	20% 18/88	+2.8% / +8.3%	−34.5% / −58.2%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +1.3%	Enter above C$198.99 (+3.3%)	24% 26/107	+2.6% / +8.3%	−30.0% / −58.2%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	IN	Nov 28, 2025 +16.6%	Exit below C$186.41 (−3.3%)	45% 18/40	+7.0% / +8.3%	−26.8% / −58.2%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	IN	May 20, 2026 +9.4%	Exit below C$185.35 (−3.8%)	14% 24/166	+5.8% / +8.3%	−27.5% / −58.2%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	IN	May 26, 2025 +20.0%	Not on one close	46% 13/28	+6.3% / +8.3%	−32.4% / −58.2%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	May 20, 2026 +9.4%	Exit below C$185.35 (−3.8%)	16% 19/122	+4.9% / +8.3%	−33.1% / −58.2%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +1.3%	Enter above C$191.41 (−0.7%)	35% 52/147	+3.1% / +8.3%	−44.0% / −58.2%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.1%	Exit below C$191.39 (−0.7%)	24% 186/773	−0.8% / +8.3%	−71.2% / −58.2%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +0.3%	Exit below C$174.17 (−9.6%)	36% 85/237	+5.7% / +8.3%	−44.5% / −58.2%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	IN	Aug 12, 2024 +40.3%	Not on one close	39% 7/18	+7.6% / +8.3%	−33.0% / −58.2%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 +3.2%	Enter above C$195.72 (+1.6%)	24% 37/155	+0.4% / +8.3%	−42.6% / −58.2%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Sep 9, 2026 +2.4%	Enter above C$194.95 (+1.2%)	27% 35/131	+2.2% / +8.3%	−36.1% / −58.2%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Aug 24, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above C$195.83 (+1.6%)	33% 48/146	+2.8% / +8.3%	−52.1% / −58.2%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 +3.2%	Flips at next check	43% 137/321	+4.7% / +8.3%	−39.1% / −58.2%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below C$183.24 (−4.9%)	35% 186/528	+4.2% / +8.3%	−48.8% / −58.2%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −0.2%	Exit below C$185.47 (−3.7%)	36% 80/224	+3.5% / +8.3%	−38.8% / −58.2%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below C$189.59 (−1.6%)	42% 193/461	+4.4% / +8.3%	−48.9% / −58.2%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2026 −3.8%	Not on one close	29% 51/175	−0.8% / +8.3%	−37.3% / −58.2%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.1%	Exit below C$189.01 (−1.9%)	26% 54/208	+0.8% / +8.3%	−51.0% / −58.2%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +1.3%	Enter above C$193.16 (+0.2%)	29% 51/175	+0.3% / +8.3%	−56.6% / −58.2%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +0.0%	Exit below C$185.59 (−3.7%)	30% 71/237	+3.8% / +8.3%	−44.1% / −58.2%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +0.6%	Not on one close	33% 76/233	+2.0% / +8.3%	−51.6% / −58.2%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.1%	Exit below C$189.56 (−1.6%)	27% 45/164	+2.6% / +8.3%	−44.8% / −58.2%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 3, 2026 +1.0%	Enter above C$199.80 (+3.7%)	26% 32/125	+1.5% / +8.3%	−37.6% / −58.2%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 −3.3%	Not on one close	36% 64/176	+4.0% / +8.3%	−28.5% / −58.2%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Mar 19, 2026 +7.2%	Not on one close	45% 18/40	+2.4% / +8.3%	−8.7% / −58.2%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −0.2%	Exit below C$185.47 (−3.7%)	33% 47/144	+0.7% / +8.3%	−57.9% / −58.2%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Aug 24, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above C$207.40 (+7.6%)	23% 35/152	−2.0% / +8.3%	−46.8% / −58.2%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2026 +1.4%	Enter above C$207.40 (+7.6%)	26% 28/107	−0.9% / +8.3%	−37.6% / −58.2%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2026 +1.4%	Enter above C$206.63 (+7.2%)	25% 27/106	+0.4% / +8.3%	−41.4% / −58.2%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Aug 24, 2026 −0.8%	Enter above C$200.00 (+3.8%)	36% 43/121	−0.6% / +8.3%	−53.0% / −58.2%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above C$198.39 (+3.0%)	26% 38/148	−1.7% / +8.3%	−55.3% / −58.2%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Aug 13, 2026 −3.8%	Enter above C$194.98 (+1.2%)	33% 73/224	+0.3% / +8.3%	−41.3% / −58.2%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	IN	Sep 29, 2026 +0.3%	Exit below C$184.26 (−4.4%)	40% 75/187	+4.8% / +8.3%	−37.1% / −58.2%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2026 +1.4%	Enter above C$195.19 (+1.3%)	35% 59/170	+3.4% / +8.3%	−51.1% / −58.2%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	IN	Jul 28, 2026 −5.8%	Exit below C$182.74 (−5.2%)	42% 22/52	+4.6% / +8.3%	−41.1% / −58.2%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −0.2%	Exit below C$186.92 (−3.0%)	28% 85/299	+2.4% / +8.3%	−52.6% / −58.2%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 6, 2026 −5.2%	Not on one close	26% 40/154	+0.1% / +8.3%	−20.5% / −58.2%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Aug 11, 2026 −5.0%	Enter above C$193.47 (+0.4%)	33% 54/164	−0.3% / +8.3%	−40.1% / −58.2%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +2.4%	Exit below C$190.82 (−1.0%)	30% 213/722	−2.0% / +8.3%	−73.0% / −58.2%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Dec 13, 2024 +35.3%	Not on one close	20% 8/40	+1.8% / +8.3%	−17.1% / −58.2%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2024 +29.2%	Exit below C$162.04 (−15.9%)	27% 7/26	+6.3% / +8.8%	−38.5% / −58.2%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 −5.8%	Not on one close	57% 17/30	+4.4% / +8.8%	−50.4% / −58.2%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −0.2%	Exit below C$180.18 (−6.5%)	30% 18/60	+1.4% / +8.8%	−52.5% / −58.2%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below C$190.49 (−1.1%)	17% 30/176	+4.0% / +8.3%	−21.7% / −58.2%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	IN	Aug 30, 2024 +36.3%	Exit below C$175.63 (−8.8%)	43% 6/14	+6.8% / +8.3%	−28.8% / −58.2%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	Aug 14, 2026 −3.3%	Enter above C$197.37 (+2.4%)	30% 38/125	+2.8% / +8.3%	−37.6% / −58.2%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +2.4%	Exit below C$184.96 (−4.0%)	34% 149/443	+2.6% / +8.3%	−63.1% / −58.2%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.1%	Exit below C$191.02 (−0.9%)	29% 232/798	−2.0% / +8.3%	−68.6% / −58.2%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	IN	Sep 23, 2026 +2.6%	Exit below C$156.51 (−18.8%)	38% 111/289	+6.9% / +8.3%	−52.0% / −58.2%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2024 +47.7%	Not on one close	45% 5/11	+8.2% / +7.8%	−60.9% / −58.2%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$192.91 (+0.1%)	28% 170/613	−1.0% / +8.3%	−49.5% / −58.2%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below C$139.01 (−27.9%)	40% 102/257	+7.0% / +8.3%	−47.8% / −58.2%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.1%	Exit below C$189.15 (−1.8%)	26% 53/202	+1.4% / +8.3%	−49.9% / −58.2%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −0.2%	Exit below C$192.28 (−0.2%)	29% 26/91	+4.0% / +8.8%	−38.7% / −58.2%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Jul 31, 2026 −5.8%	Not on one close	46% 12/26	+2.4% / +8.0%	−50.4% / −58.2%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Jul 31, 2026 −5.8%	Not on one close	55% 23/42	+4.9% / +8.8%	−34.6% / −58.2%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below C$181.59 (−5.8%)	32% 110/343	+4.0% / +8.3%	−62.7% / −58.2%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jun 30, 2026 −0.5%	Not on one close	57% 24/42	+5.4% / +8.3%	−47.7% / −58.2%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 +1.3%	Not on one close	62% 208/336	+1.2% / +8.3%	−52.2% / −58.2%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Not on one close	64% 267/418	+4.3% / +8.3%	−55.7% / −58.2%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 +2.2%	Buy below C$185.01 (−4.0%)	62% 115/184	+4.1% / +8.3%	−53.4% / −58.2%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +1.2%	Not on one close	67% 109/162	+5.6% / +8.3%	−48.4% / −58.2%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +1.2%	Not on one close	59% 159/269	+2.6% / +8.3%	−39.7% / −58.2%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	OUT	Feb 26, 2026 +2.9%	Not on one close	53% 32/60	+2.0% / +8.3%	−52.9% / −58.2%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +508.6%	Sell above C$447.98 (+132.5%)	–	+8.3% / +8.3%	−58.2% / −58.2%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Aug 12, 2025 +22.3%	Not on one close	58% 7/12	+2.4% / +8.3%	−4.0% / −58.2%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +1.4%	Not on one close	48% 150/314	+6.0% / +8.3%	−30.4% / −58.2%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 18, 2026 +3.7%	Not on one close	54% 229/425	+2.9% / +8.3%	−53.9% / −58.2%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 8, 2026 +1.0%	Buy below C$192.68 (0.0%)	59% 1050/1778	+6.2% / +8.3%	−45.9% / −58.2%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 +0.6%	Not on one close	59% 58/98	+6.0% / +8.3%	−25.1% / −58.2%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Exit below C$191.26 (−0.7%)	37% 404/1083	−1.5% / +8.3%	−54.0% / −58.2%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −0.2%	Buy below C$196.86 (+2.2%)	61% 87/143	+7.9% / +8.3%	−35.9% / −58.2%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 +1.0%	Not on one close	27% 209/787	−1.2% / +8.3%	−67.6% / −58.2%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 1, 2026 +1.2%	Exit below C$192.68 (0.0%)	30% 63/207	−0.1% / +8.3%	−40.2% / −58.2%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2024 +36.1%	Not on one close	50% 23/46	+4.8% / +8.3%	−49.7% / −58.2%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Apr 22, 2025 +35.1%	Exit below C$185.33 (−3.8%)	36% 58/160	+4.2% / +8.6%	−54.9% / −58.2%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 +0.1%	Exit below C$191.95 (−0.4%)	26% 174/679	+0.3% / +8.3%	−61.8% / −58.2%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below C$180.06 (−6.5%)	35% 122/353	+2.5% / +8.1%	−60.2% / −58.2%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 +0.6%	Exit below C$192.68 (0.0%)	35% 209/593	+0.6% / +8.3%	−55.8% / −58.2%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	IN	Sep 14, 2026 +2.0%	Not on one close	31% 34/108	+5.8% / +8.5%	−46.8% / −58.2%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 +2.4%	Not on one close	34% 314/937	+0.2% / +8.3%	−58.5% / −58.2%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	OUT	Oct 1, 2026 +1.2%	Not on one close	54% 94/173	+6.3% / +8.3%	−44.6% / −58.2%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Aug 25, 2026 +1.4%	Not on one close	24% 23/94	−0.1% / +8.3%	−38.2% / −58.2%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2025 +22.7%	Not on one close	40% 27/68	+1.6% / +8.3%	−16.3% / −58.2%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 +2.9%	Buys Oct 30	70% 30/43	+7.2% / +8.3%	−52.9% / −58.2%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 20, 2026 +1.4%	Not on one close	58% 25/43	+5.6% / +8.3%	−53.5% / −58.2%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 21, 2026 +3.3%	Window opens Oct 16	70% 30/43	+9.3% / +8.3%	−53.3% / −58.2%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 +13.1%	Buys Dec 23	45% 20/44	+2.3% / +8.3%	−9.2% / −58.2%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 +1.3%	Buys Oct 29	51% 266/526	+3.0% / +8.3%	−23.8% / −58.2%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −0.2%	Sells Jun 30	45% 5/11	+4.5% / +8.3%	−18.2% / −58.2%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 +0.4%	Buys Nov 24	46% 176/386	+1.7% / +8.3%	−13.8% / −58.2%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +60.3%	Not on one close	25% 5/20	+3.3% / +8.3%	−48.8% / −58.2%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	49% 1124/2284	+2.3% / +8.3%	−49.8% / −58.2%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 +1.8%	Buys Oct 27	46% 159/348	+2.4% / +8.3%	−11.8% / −58.2%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 +0.0%	Sells Oct 16	47% 254/541	+1.3% / +8.3%	−54.2% / −58.2%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 4, 2005	Always in	–	+8.3%	−58.2%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureModerate3 of 10 points

Market swings0/3
Past crashes1/2
Debt2/3
Run-up0/2

It fell about 1.3× as far as its index in past crashes.
It carries 2.0× as much debt as equity.
It operating profit covers interest only 3.7×.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Nov 2008 · back to its old high May 2013

CTC.A−54%

TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Oct 2020

CTC.A−52%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 · back to its old high Feb 2023

CTC.A−18%

TSX−14%

Beta0.68Moves about 0.7× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture45%In months the TSX fell, this fell 45% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+32%
From 52-week high−7%
Debt to equity1.96×
Net debt / EBITDA6.1×Years of operating cash earnings it would take to pay off its debt.
Interest cover3.7×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Specialty Retail · Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited provides a range of retail goods and services in Canada. It operates through three segments: Retail, CT REIT, and Financial Services.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$10.0B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	C$16.5B	Total sales. The market values it at 0.6× sales.
P/E ratio	15.1×	Buyers pay C$15 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	12.4×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	1.7×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	4.1%	Keeps 4¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+2.4%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+78.3%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	11.2%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	C$40.3M	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	C$5.9B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	C$11.5B	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	C$675M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	1.96×	Above about 1.5× is heavily borrowed; above 3× is fragile in a downturn.
Interest cover	3.7×	Operating profit divided by interest. Under 2× means one bad year could make the interest hard to pay.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$206.60	7% above the close, from 10 analysts (range C$185.00 to C$230.00).
Dividend yield	3.74%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

CTC.A: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Consumer & retail: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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