Metals & mining

Alamos Gold (AGI)

C$45.39 −3.3% on the day·−1.5% in a year·close Oct 13, 2026

Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange; prices in Canadian dollars. All 218 TSX stocks.

Your signal

Sell14 / 100

Sell: 14 is at or below your Sell line of 40. Plays in (24%) scores 24 and lifts it; Off the high (−40% from its 1-year high) scores 0 and holds it back.

Every factor in this score has a tested record: each was checked month by month since 2011 on numbers public at the time.

Factor you weight	AGI	Points	Weight	Adds
Plays in	24%	24	40	9.6
Off the high	−40% from its 1-year high	0	30	0.0
Trend	−15% vs 200-day	14	30	4.2

Email me when it flips

Your signal is the one call Be The Puck makes on a stock, and you set it: weight the plays, analysts, P/E, growth, debt, trend and more, and move the Buy and Sell lines. Every page follows your choice. How the score works

All 18 factors for AGI

Factor	AGI	Points	What it is
Plays in	24%	24	The share of the plays you count that hold it now.
Analysts' upside	+49% · 11 analysts · capped: below 200-day	50	How far analysts' average 12-month target sits above the price (3+ analysts). −20% scores 0, +50% full marks; at most 50 while the price is below its 200-day average, since targets lag a falling price.
Analysts' rating	1.5 · buy	73	The analysts' average recommendation: strong buy scores 100, hold or worse 0.
P/E	11.8×	90	Price over the last four quarters' earnings per share. Lower ranks higher; a loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Forward P/E	10.6×	81	Price over next year's expected earnings. Lower ranks higher; an expected loss scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
PEG	0.99	66	P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Lower ranks higher; around 1 is often read as fair for the growth. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to sales	6.0×	29	Market value over the last 12 months' revenue. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Price to book	2.8×	55	Price over book value (assets minus debts) per share. Lower ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Dividend yield	0.5%	14	Dividends over the last year as a share of the price. Higher ranks higher; no dividend scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Earnings growth	+69%	75	Earnings per share over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Revenue growth	+36%	78	Revenue over the last four quarters against the four before (the latest quarter on a year earlier where filings aren't available). Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Profit margin	53%	95	Net profit as a share of revenue. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Return on equity	27%	82	Profit as a share of shareholders' equity. Higher ranks higher. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Debt to equity	0.05×	88	Debt against shareholders' equity. Lower ranks higher; negative equity scores 0. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Off the high	−40% from its 1-year high	0	How far the price sits below its highest close of the last year: 100 points at the high, none at 30% or more below. The exit rule: a stock that keeps falling loses points whatever else it has going for it.
Trend	−15% vs 200-day	14	How far the price sits above its 200-day average. Higher ranks higher.
1-year momentum	−1%	31	The price change over the last 12 months. Higher ranks higher.
Low crash exposure	2/10 · low	80	The storm test: 100 for no exposure, 10 points off per point of exposure.

The read

Test a theory on AGI

24 of the 100 plays hold AGI right now.
The trend-following, breakout and momentum plays mostly say out.
It closed 15% below its 200-day average and 40% below its 52-week high.
Crash exposure reads low: it moves about 1.9× its index.
Analysts' average 12-month target is C$67.80, 49% above the close (11 analysts).

This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. New to this? Start with the basics.

Plays in24 / 100Every play Be The Puck tests, in 7 families.

Crash exposureLow2 of 10 on the storm test Mayer Multiple0.85×Price ÷ its 200-day average (−15%). Higher than on 14% of days since 2005. Above 2.4 is Mayer's overheated zone.

The most accurate play in each family

Each family's play whose calls went the right way most often, tested on 351 stocks since 2005, and what it says about AGI now.

Trend followingHoly GrailOUT42% of 12,813 calls rightOn AGI: right 27 of 56 · Out since Sep 26, 2025 Breakouts & channelsP&F Double TopOUT37% of 36,314 calls rightOn AGI: right 75 of 211 · Out since Sep 24, 2026 Momentum12-1 MomentumIN44% of 8,156 calls rightOn AGI: right 18 of 28 · In since Sep 30, 2026 Mean reversionBollinger ReversionIN64% of 53,095 calls rightOn AGI: right 137 of 201 · In since Sep 28, 2026 Volume & money flowMoney Flow IndexOUT59% of 13,925 calls rightOn AGI: right 16 of 33 · Out since Aug 26, 2026 Candles & chart patternsEngulfing SwitchIN50% of 38,976 calls rightOn AGI: right 79 of 151 · In since Sep 22, 2026 CalendarHalloween IndicatorOUT54% of 12,345 calls rightOn AGI: right 20 of 43 · Out since Apr 30, 2026

A call is right when the stock rose after an in call or fell after an out call. Trend plays are built to take many small losses for a few big wins, so their hit rates run lower; being right often isn't the same as making the most money. How we test a play.

AGI, day by day

How to read candlesticks

Each candle is one trading day: the box spans the open and close, the thin line the day's high and low. Hollow boxes closed up, filled boxes closed down. Toggle the averages to see the trend the plays read. Dots above the candles mark news and company filings: hover or tap one to see the story and how the stock moved from the last close before it, against the market on the same days.

What moved AGI lately

No session in the last 30 moved it twice a normal day against the S&P/TSX; these were its largest, the news read on each, and how reliably that kind of news has moved stocks before. How it's measured

Tue Oct 13−4.2% against the S&P/TSX1.7× a normal day

AGI −3.3%, the S&P/TSX +0.9% that session.

HeadlineStreetwise Reports · Oct 10, 2:46 am ET
Gold Stock Correction Dynamics
HeadlinePluang · Oct 10, 12:21 am ET
AGI Stock Technical Analysis
HeadlinePluang · Oct 10, 12:21 am ET
Alamos Gold Inc. Class A Common Shares (AGI) Financial Statements

Mon Sep 28−4.1% against the S&P/TSX1.6× a normal day

AGI −5.0%, the S&P/TSX −0.9% that session; −4.4% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on AGI was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for AGI starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −0.9%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved −4.1% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Wed Sep 23−3.3% against the S&P/TSX1.3× a normal day

AGI −4.9%, the S&P/TSX −1.6% that session; −5.7% against the S&P/TSX over five sessions.

No earnings report, rating change, 8-K filing or news story on AGI was found for this session. Be The Puck's headline archive for AGI starts Oct 2, so news stories from that day aren't in it. The S&P/TSX moved −1.6%. The 50 other Metals & mining stocks Be The Puck covers moved −4.4% on average: much of the move was shared with its group.

Next earnings report

Wed Oct 28, 2026 after the close

From Yahoo Finance's calendar; dates can move. Analysts expect earnings per share of 0.62.

Over its last 12 reports, AGI's typical move against the S&P/TSX at the first close after the report was ±3.1% (median size, either way); it finished ahead of the index 4 times.
AGI after beats of 5% or more: ahead of its index at the first close after the report 12 of 17 times (median +2.8%).
AGI after misses of any size: behind its index at the first close after the report 14 of 19 times (median −2.5%).
Across all covered stocks, beats of 5% or more were followed by a gain against the index 64% of the time and misses by a drop 62% of the time.

Whether a report beats is only known once it is out, so these say how the stock has reacted, not which way it will go.

Two years of calls, week by week

InOutShare of plays in

One row per play, grouped by family. When most rows turn green at once, the trend is broad. When they split, the plays disagree and the stock is usually chopping sideways.

Every play on AGI

All 100 plays, by family.

Trend following0 of 30 in Breakouts & channels0 of 15 in Momentum5 of 17 in Mean reversion9 of 15 in Volume & money flow4 of 9 in Candles & chart patterns1 of 3 in Calendar5 of 11 in

Calls right: how often the play's calls on AGI went the right way since 2005. Record columns: play / buy and hold, annual return and worst drawdown since 2005. Click a column to sort.Sort with the menu above the list.

Play	Call	Since	Next move	Calls right	Annual return	Worst drawdown
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin Playboy · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −6.5%	Enter above C$47.18 (+3.9%)	25% 175/691	−4.3% / +13.4%	−93.5% / −82.8%
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin Cowen · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.9%	Enter above C$48.88 (+7.7%)	19% 28/151	−6.2% / +13.4%	−96.1% / −82.8%
Ripster EMA CloudRipster · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −6.5%	Enter above C$47.67 (+5.0%)	20% 87/445	−7.2% / +13.4%	−95.8% / −82.8%
Trend TemplateMark Minervini · daily	OUT	Apr 21, 2026 −25.3%	Not on one close	18% 32/177	+5.9% / +13.4%	−41.3% / −82.8%
Stage AnalysisStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	May 15, 2026 −17.8%	Enter above C$114.61 (+152.5%)	15% 14/91	+2.6% / +13.4%	−84.1% / −82.8%
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan Weinstein · weekly	OUT	May 15, 2026 −17.8%	Enter above C$57.83 (+27.4%)	19% 20/107	+3.6% / +13.4%	−81.0% / −82.8%
10-Month SMAMeb Faber · month-end	OUT	Jun 30, 2026 +5.7%	Enter above C$52.77 (+16.3%)	23% 12/53	+2.1% / +13.4%	−86.0% / −82.8%
200-Day RulePaul Tudor Jones · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 −12.8%	Enter above C$53.64 (+18.2%)	11% 26/229	−0.6% / +13.4%	−94.1% / −82.8%
Golden CrossMarket tradition · daily	OUT	Jun 26, 2026 +2.5%	Not on one close	42% 14/33	+11.7% / +13.4%	−72.0% / −82.8%
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 −12.8%	Enter above C$136.12 (+199.9%)	11% 16/143	+1.0% / +13.4%	−91.4% / −82.8%
Hull Moving AverageAlan Hull · weekly	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.9%	Enter above C$55.65 (+22.6%)	33% 51/155	−8.6% / +13.4%	−96.3% / −82.8%
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. Kaufman · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −6.5%	Enter above C$47.95 (+5.6%)	26% 192/743	−0.6% / +13.4%	−84.2% / −82.8%
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. Mulloy · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above C$62.58 (+37.9%)	32% 83/257	+1.5% / +13.4%	−77.1% / −82.8%
Seykota 15/150Ed Seykota · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −1.5%	Enter above C$57.59 (+26.9%)	18% 7/39	+7.1% / +12.5%	−73.3% / −82.8%
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl Guppy · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above C$57.75 (+27.2%)	27% 39/147	−1.5% / +13.4%	−85.8% / −82.8%
Ichimoku CloudGoichi Hosoda · daily	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −1.5%	Not on one close	19% 28/151	−5.9% / +13.4%	−94.4% / −82.8%
SupertrendOlivier Seban · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above C$49.76 (+9.6%)	30% 54/183	−5.4% / +13.4%	−93.9% / −82.8%
Williams AlligatorBill Williams · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −2.1%	Not on one close	38% 117/307	−5.2% / +13.4%	−92.4% / −82.8%
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas Siepman · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −6.5%	Enter above C$51.67 (+13.8%)	30% 165/559	−5.0% / +13.4%	−95.9% / −82.8%
AroonTushar S. Chande · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 −5.9%	Enter above C$52.02 (+14.6%)	32% 71/219	−5.9% / +13.4%	−95.5% / −82.8%
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 −5.9%	Enter above C$47.53 (+4.7%)	38% 190/498	−1.0% / +13.4%	−92.3% / −82.8%
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 −5.9%	Not on one close	30% 47/157	−2.2% / +13.4%	−65.2% / −82.8%
MACD Zero LineGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above C$56.21 (+23.8%)	24% 51/213	−7.5% / +13.4%	−96.4% / −82.8%
Zweig 4% ModelMartin Zweig · weekly	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −8.9%	Enter above C$48.11 (+6.0%)	33% 112/335	−3.5% / +13.4%	−89.2% / −82.8%
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. Ehlers · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 −7.0%	Enter above C$113.51 (+150.1%)	29% 71/247	−2.6% / +13.4%	−92.0% / −82.8%
Schaff Trend CycleDoug Schaff · daily	OUT	Sep 15, 2026 −7.2%	Enter above C$51.21 (+12.8%)	29% 75/257	−6.2% / +13.4%	−90.9% / −82.8%
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric Way · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above C$54.74 (+20.6%)	25% 51/205	−6.1% / +13.4%	−94.9% / −82.8%
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin Swenlin · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.9%	Enter above C$56.51 (+24.5%)	20% 26/129	−3.8% / +13.4%	−94.3% / −82.8%
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 25, 2026 −7.0%	Not on one close	35% 72/203	+3.1% / +13.4%	−79.1% / −82.8%
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Sep 26, 2025 −4.2%	Not on one close	48% 27/56	+3.1% / +13.4%	−25.1% / −82.8%
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard Donchian · daily	OUT	Sep 28, 2026 −2.1%	Enter above C$51.21 (+12.8%)	28% 42/151	−12.3% / +13.4%	−98.5% / −82.8%
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Mar 13, 2026 −27.7%	Enter above C$51.21 (+12.8%)	30% 41/135	−0.7% / +13.4%	−83.3% / −82.8%
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt · daily	OUT	Mar 18, 2026 −20.8%	Enter above C$54.02 (+19.0%)	23% 24/103	−3.5% / +13.4%	−89.4% / −82.8%
Clenow TrendAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	Mar 13, 2026 −27.7%	Enter above C$102.52 (+125.9%)	23% 24/103	−4.0% / +13.4%	−87.6% / −82.8%
Darvas BoxNicolas Darvas · daily	OUT	Jun 3, 2026 −13.3%	Enter above C$51.21 (+12.8%)	37% 44/119	−1.7% / +13.4%	−91.8% / −82.8%
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford Raschke · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 −6.3%	Enter above C$51.68 (+13.9%)	30% 46/155	−4.7% / +13.4%	−88.4% / −82.8%
Bollinger BreakoutJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 −6.3%	Enter above C$51.51 (+13.5%)	31% 70/229	−6.2% / +13.4%	−92.9% / −82.8%
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeau · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above C$51.05 (+12.5%)	28% 61/215	−8.1% / +13.4%	−95.2% / −82.8%
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above C$49.63 (+9.3%)	31% 63/203	−5.4% / +13.4%	−91.9% / −82.8%
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. Dorsey · daily	OUT	Sep 24, 2026 −5.9%	Enter above C$52.49 (+15.6%)	36% 75/211	+0.7% / +13.4%	−88.5% / −82.8%
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −5.8%	Enter above C$48.53 (+6.9%)	25% 88/347	−5.1% / +13.4%	−93.6% / −82.8%
Acceleration BandsPrice Headley · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 −11.1%	Not on one close	26% 45/174	−4.7% / +13.4%	−72.0% / −82.8%
TTM SqueezeJohn F. Carter · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 −11.1%	Not on one close	33% 48/146	−3.1% / +13.4%	−88.5% / −82.8%
NR7 BreakoutToby Crabel · daily	OUT	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Enter above C$47.28 (+4.2%)	33% 230/706	−0.5% / +13.4%	−88.6% / −82.8%
Bollinger SqueezeJohn Bollinger · daily	OUT	Sep 1, 2026 −6.3%	Not on one close	36% 14/39	+2.7% / +13.4%	−32.5% / −82.8%
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −1.5%	Enter above C$44.67 (−1.6%)	40% 10/25	+12.6% / +13.1%	−78.0% / −82.8%
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −1.5%	Not on one close	64% 18/28	+17.1% / +13.1%	−65.4% / −82.8%
Dual MomentumGary Antonacci · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −1.5%	Enter above C$49.67 (+9.4%)	44% 12/27	+11.2% / +13.1%	−62.5% / −82.8%
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. Clenow · daily	OUT	May 13, 2026 −23.9%	Not on one close	18% 27/147	−0.4% / +13.4%	−80.1% / −82.8%
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang Hwang · month-end	OUT	Mar 31, 2026 −26.5%	Enter above C$71.64 (+57.8%)	35% 12/34	+3.4% / +13.4%	−65.5% / −82.8%
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. Levy · weekly	OUT	May 1, 2026 −15.1%	Enter above C$51.50 (+13.5%)	20% 24/121	−1.1% / +13.4%	−91.9% / −82.8%
MACD Signal CrossGerald Appel · daily	OUT	Sep 2, 2026 −9.2%	Enter above C$48.44 (+6.7%)	33% 151/461	−0.5% / +13.4%	−75.1% / −82.8%
Elder ImpulseAlexander Elder · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −3.3%	Exit below C$45.08 (−0.7%)	29% 239/832	−5.5% / +13.4%	−89.4% / −82.8%
Know Sure ThingMartin J. Pring · daily	OUT	Sep 8, 2026 −9.6%	Enter above C$65.61 (+44.5%)	38% 124/327	+5.7% / +13.4%	−70.3% / −82.8%
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. Coppock · month-end	IN	Feb 28, 2022 +402.3%	Not on one close	47% 7/15	+11.0% / +8.7%	−76.3% / −82.8%
CCI +100Donald R. Lambert · daily	OUT	Aug 28, 2026 −11.1%	Enter above C$52.20 (+15.0%)	28% 177/622	−6.9% / +13.4%	−91.4% / −82.8%
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. Hutson · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −8.9%	Enter above C$80.49 (+77.3%)	33% 92/281	+0.7% / +13.4%	−87.4% / −82.8%
TSI Zero LineWilliam Blau · daily	OUT	Sep 29, 2026 −3.2%	Enter above C$56.62 (+24.8%)	24% 51/213	−8.5% / +13.4%	−97.1% / −82.8%
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning · month-end	OUT	Sep 30, 2026 −1.5%	Enter above C$44.87 (−1.1%)	31% 31/99	−0.1% / +13.1%	−87.6% / −82.8%
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen Hameed · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −1.5%	Not on one close	64% 18/28	+10.4% / +9.4%	−60.9% / −82.8%
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −1.5%	Not on one close	48% 12/25	+11.1% / +13.1%	−48.4% / −82.8%
PMO Signal CrossCarl Swenlin · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −8.9%	Enter above C$53.39 (+17.6%)	31% 111/353	+0.2% / +13.4%	−79.2% / −82.8%
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr. · daily	OUT	Jan 31, 2025 +50.3%	Not on one close	80% 32/40	+17.3% / +13.4%	−66.2% / −82.8%
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	May 25, 2026 −18.2%	Not on one close	56% 150/268	+4.3% / +13.4%	−31.0% / −82.8%
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	May 29, 2026 −19.6%	Not on one close	60% 211/351	+8.4% / +13.4%	−70.9% / −82.8%
Bollinger ReversionJohn Bollinger · daily	IN	Sep 28, 2026 −2.1%	Sell above C$47.42 (+4.5%)	68% 137/201	+18.6% / +13.4%	−52.6% / −82.8%
Stochastic 20/80George C. Lane · daily	IN	Sep 17, 2026 −9.3%	Not on one close	69% 124/181	+18.6% / +13.4%	−54.9% / −82.8%
Williams %RLarry Williams · daily	IN	Sep 11, 2026 −8.9%	Not on one close	62% 168/273	+7.3% / +13.4%	−64.0% / −82.8%
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMark · daily	IN	Apr 30, 2026 −16.1%	Not on one close	65% 50/77	+11.5% / +13.4%	−55.8% / −82.8%
Mayer MultipleTrace Mayer · daily	IN	Nov 22, 2004 +1,253.0%	Sell above C$129.65 (+185.6%)	–	+13.4% / +13.4%	−82.8% / −82.8%
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt Radtke · daily	OUT	Apr 9, 2025 +21.8%	Buy below C$17.35 (−61.8%)	57% 17/30	+2.0% / +13.4%	−36.7% / −82.8%
Laguerre RSIJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Sep 9, 2026 −11.0%	Not on one close	50% 163/327	+3.5% / +13.4%	−74.0% / −82.8%
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll · daily	IN	Sep 3, 2026 −12.7%	Not on one close	55% 229/417	+5.2% / +13.4%	−67.1% / −82.8%
IBS ReversionAlexander S. Pagonidis · daily	OUT	Oct 2, 2026 −1.9%	Buy below C$45.39 (0.0%)	57% 1157/2019	+19.5% / +13.4%	−54.7% / −82.8%
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez · daily	OUT	Aug 5, 2026 +3.7%	Not on one close	67% 59/88	+14.8% / +13.4%	−36.0% / −82.8%
Fisher TransformJohn F. Ehlers · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 −1.0%	Exit below C$44.75 (−1.4%)	38% 409/1079	+3.2% / +13.4%	−77.5% / −82.8%
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann · month-end	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −1.5%	Sell above C$47.00 (+3.5%)	65% 90/139	+16.5% / +13.4%	−61.6% / −82.8%
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. Granville · daily	OUT	Sep 14, 2026 −8.4%	Enter above C$45.39 (+0.0%)	25% 191/775	−10.0% / +13.4%	−95.8% / −82.8%
Chaikin Money FlowMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 8, 2026 −1.0%	Not on one close	33% 75/224	−7.5% / +13.4%	−95.7% / −82.8%
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum Soudack · daily	OUT	Aug 26, 2026 −12.8%	Not on one close	48% 16/33	−1.8% / +13.4%	−83.0% / −82.8%
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul Dysart · daily	IN	Jan 2, 2025 +64.8%	Not on one close	35% 39/112	+1.0% / +13.6%	−85.1% / −82.8%
Force IndexAlexander Elder · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −6.5%	Enter above C$46.51 (+2.5%)	30% 221/729	+0.7% / +13.4%	−86.0% / −82.8%
Buff AveragesBuff Dormeier · daily	OUT	Sep 11, 2026 −8.9%	Enter above C$53.65 (+18.2%)	34% 124/365	+0.4% / +13.4%	−83.1% / −82.8%
Chaikin OscillatorMarc Chaikin · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −1.9%	Exit below C$45.39 (0.0%)	33% 213/651	−18.9% / +13.4%	−99.3% / −82.8%
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos Katsanos · daily	OUT	Sep 3, 2026 −12.7%	Not on one close	26% 32/125	+4.4% / +13.0%	−76.7% / −82.8%
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. Klinger · daily	IN	Oct 6, 2026 −2.6%	Sell C$43.19–C$45.72 (+0.7%)	35% 335/956	−3.3% / +13.4%	−87.9% / −82.8%
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. Bulkowski · daily	IN	Sep 22, 2026 −11.1%	Not on one close	52% 79/151	+7.0% / +13.4%	−76.3% / −82.8%
HikkakeDaniel L. Chesler · daily	OUT	Sep 23, 2026 −6.5%	Not on one close	30% 34/112	−4.6% / +13.4%	−79.4% / −82.8%
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors · daily	OUT	Oct 7, 2026 +1.0%	Not on one close	51% 39/76	+0.6% / +13.4%	−39.6% / −82.8%
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Apr 30, 2026 −16.1%	Buys Oct 30	47% 20/43	+14.5% / +13.4%	−77.5% / −82.8%
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Oct 9, 2026 −3.3%	Window opens Apr 1	52% 23/44	+14.2% / +13.4%	−78.1% / −82.8%
Seasonal TimingSy Harding · daily	OUT	Apr 22, 2026 −26.3%	Window opens Oct 16	42% 18/43	+8.3% / +13.4%	−86.9% / −82.8%
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	OUT	Jan 5, 2026 −15.8%	Buys Dec 23	59% 26/44	+7.3% / +13.4%	−21.4% / −82.8%
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. Ariel · daily	OUT	Oct 5, 2026 −1.5%	Buys Oct 29	50% 265/526	+10.7% / +13.4%	−49.4% / −82.8%
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · daily	IN	Sep 30, 2026 −1.5%	Sells Jun 30	36% 4/11	+0.9% / +13.4%	−73.4% / −82.8%
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	OUT	Sep 4, 2026 −11.2%	Buys Nov 24	51% 196/386	+3.9% / +13.4%	−21.6% / −82.8%
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey Hirsch · month-end	IN	Dec 30, 2022 +238.5%	Not on one close	30% 6/20	+0.8% / +13.4%	−90.2% / −82.8%
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt · daily	IN	Oct 13, 2026 0.0%	Sells Oct 16	51% 1155/2284	+6.7% / +13.4%	−83.2% / −82.8%
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel Moench · daily	OUT	Sep 16, 2026 −5.8%	Buys Oct 27	50% 175/348	+4.7% / +13.4%	−27.9% / −82.8%
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu · daily	IN	Oct 2, 2026 −1.9%	Sells Oct 16	48% 261/541	+3.0% / +13.4%	−82.0% / −82.8%
Benchmark
Buy & HoldJohn C. Bogle · benchmark	IN	Jan 4, 2005	Always in	–	+13.4%	−82.8%

If the market cracks: the storm test

How the storm test works

ExposureLow2 of 10 points

Market swings2/3
Past crashes0/2
Debt0/3
Run-up0/2

It moves about 1.9× its index.

Past crashes, peak to low

Financial crisis Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 · back to its old high Dec 2008

AGI−46%

TSX−47%

COVID crash Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 · back to its old high Apr 2020

AGI−37%

TSX−37%

2022 bear market Jan 2022 to Jan 2022 · back to its old high Mar 2022

AGI−15%

TSX−14%

Beta1.94Moves about 1.9× as much as the TSX week to week.
Downside capture12%In months the TSX fell, this fell 12% as much on average (it often rose anyway).
Two-year change+70%Run-ups of 100%+ crashed 40% or more within two years about half the time (Greenwood, Shleifer & You).
From 52-week high−40%
Debt to equity0.05×
Net debt / EBITDANet cashHolds more cash than debt.
Interest cover103.8×

A crash marks every stock down; debt decides which companies come through. The storm test scores both halves: how hard the stock swings with the market, and how much debt it carries into a downturn. It describes fragility; it does not predict a crash.

The business behind the price

How to judge these numbers

Gold · Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Size and valuation
Market cap	C$19.0B	What the whole company is worth at today's price: share price × shares outstanding.
Revenue (last 12 months)	$2.2B	Total sales.
P/E ratio	11.8×	Buyers pay C$12 for each C$1 of the last year's profit.
Forward P/E	10.6×	Price against analysts' estimate of next year's profit. Lower than the P/E means profit is expected to grow.
Price to book	2.8×	Price against the company's net assets (its equity) per share.

Profit and growth
Profit margin	52.6%	Keeps 53¢ of each dollar of sales as profit.
Revenue growth	+35.6%	Last quarter's sales against the same quarter a year earlier.
Earnings growth	+68.8%	Same comparison for profit.
Return on equity	27.4%	Yearly profit as a share of shareholders' money in the business.
Free cash flow	$129M	Cash left after running and investing in the business.

Balance sheet
Total equity	$4.4B	What it owns minus what it owes.
Total debt	$216M	Loans and bonds it has to pay back, with interest.
Cash	$677M	Cash and short-term investments on hand.
Debt to equity	0.05×	Comfortable.
Interest cover	103.8×	Interest is easily paid from profit.

Wall Street
Average analyst target	C$67.80	49% above the close, from 11 analysts (range C$50.78 to C$82.07).
Consensus rating	Buy	Analysts' average recommendation. Ratings lean positive: sell ratings are rare.
Dividend yield	0.48%	Yearly dividends as a share of the price.

Company figures from Yahoo Finance, fetched Oct 14, 2026. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts Be The Puck checks.

Reports for Be The Puck Members.

AGI: the briefWhat the plays, the levels and the business say, in plain English. Rebuilt nightly.Members Metals & mining: what the plays sayEvery covered name in the sector, side by side.Members Debt decides who survives a crashThe storm test on every covered stock.Members Is this a bubble?The gauges in October 2026, and what history says about timing.Members

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