Oct 13 close Sign in

Track 2 · Lesson 11 · 6 min

All the plays at a glance

Every play on Be The Puck in one table: family, speed, and how often each one beat simply holding.

Be The Puck tests 100 plays from 81 analysts, plus the golden cross, which has no single author. They fall into seven families that think about the market in different ways. Knowing the family tells you most of what to expect from a play before you look at its record.

  • Trend following: hold while price is above a line; sell when it breaks. Many small losses, a few big wins, good crash protection.
  • Breakouts & channels: buy new highs, sell on the opposite edge or a trailing stop. Similar profile, more trading.
  • Momentum: own what has risen most, measured over months. Slow, few trades, late to turn.
  • Mean reversion: buy dips, sell bounces. Right often, small wins, often in cash.
  • Volume & money flow: read buying and selling pressure from volume.
  • Candles & chart patterns: read a turn from a short pattern of bars, like an engulfing candle or a failed breakout. Short holds, often in cash.
  • Calendar: in or out by date alone.
Trend following · 30 plays84%of pairs cut the worst drawdown; 20% beat buy and hold on Sharpe. Calls right 30%, median 7.4 switches a year.
Breakouts & channels · 15 plays88%of pairs cut the worst drawdown; 15% beat buy and hold on Sharpe. Calls right 32%, median 6.5 switches a year.
Momentum · 17 plays83%of pairs cut the worst drawdown; 23% beat buy and hold on Sharpe. Calls right 32%, median 5.5 switches a year.
Mean reversion · 15 plays85%of pairs cut the worst drawdown; 16% beat buy and hold on Sharpe. Calls right 53%, median 8.5 switches a year.
Volume & money flow · 9 plays77%of pairs cut the worst drawdown; 14% beat buy and hold on Sharpe. Calls right 32%, median 16.7 switches a year.
Candles & chart patterns · 3 plays93%of pairs cut the worst drawdown; 12% beat buy and hold on Sharpe. Calls right 44%, median 4.4 switches a year.
Calendar · 11 plays91%of pairs cut the worst drawdown; 20% beat buy and hold on Sharpe. Calls right 49%, median 2.0 switches a year.

Every play

Medians and counts across all 377 stocks, since 2005 or each stock's first full year. Click a column to sort; group headers hide while sorted.

PlayChecksSwitches / yrCalls rightCut drawdownBeat B&H Sharpe
Trend following
PB EMABitcoin PlayboyDaily28.926%267 of 37552 of 375
Bull Market Support BandBenjamin CowenWeekly5.126%305 of 37488 of 374
Ripster EMA CloudRipsterDaily17.222%290 of 37572 of 375
Trend TemplateMark MinerviniDaily7.218%347 of 37458 of 374
Stage AnalysisStan WeinsteinWeekly3.523%334 of 375106 of 375
Stage 2 + Mansfield RSStan WeinsteinWeekly4.226%335 of 37485 of 374
10-Month SMAMeb FaberMonth-end1.830%316 of 375122 of 375
200-Day RulePaul Tudor JonesDaily7.914%311 of 375103 of 375
Golden CrossMarket traditionDaily1.436%303 of 375104 of 375
Granville 200-DayJoseph E. GranvilleDaily5.415%325 of 374108 of 374
Hull Moving AverageAlan HullWeekly6.536%320 of 37576 of 375
Kaufman Adaptive MAPerry J. KaufmanDaily36.224%246 of 37542 of 375
TEMA CrossoverPatrick G. MulloyDaily11.936%312 of 37563 of 375
Seykota 15/150Ed SeykotaDaily1.425%290 of 37189 of 371
Guppy Multiple MAsDaryl GuppyDaily6.228%325 of 37576 of 375
Ichimoku CloudGoichi HosodaDaily5.528%323 of 37594 of 375
SupertrendOlivier SebanDaily7.236%307 of 37562 of 375
Williams AlligatorBill WilliamsDaily14.241%329 of 37563 of 375
Vortex IndicatorEtienne Botes & Douglas SiepmanDaily25.935%295 of 37562 of 375
AroonTushar S. ChandeDaily10.037%311 of 37595 of 375
Parabolic SARJ. Welles Wilder Jr.Daily22.338%299 of 37551 of 375
ADX TrendJ. Welles Wilder Jr.Daily7.233%350 of 37546 of 375
MACD Zero LineGerald AppelDaily8.629%313 of 37592 of 375
Zweig 4% ModelMartin ZweigWeekly10.535%307 of 37552 of 375
MAMA/FAMA CrossJohn F. EhlersDaily10.531%315 of 37581 of 375
Schaff Trend CycleDoug SchaffDaily11.137%309 of 37549 of 375
Zero Lag EC CrossJohn F. Ehlers & Ric WayDaily7.630%309 of 37584 of 375
DP Trend ModelCarl Swenlin & Erin SwenlinDaily4.729%317 of 37588 of 375
Elder Triple ScreenAlexander ElderDaily9.534%347 of 37535 of 375
Holy GrailLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry ConnorsDaily1.942%375 of 37518 of 375
Breakouts & channels
Four-Week RuleRichard DonchianDaily5.836%318 of 37574 of 375
Turtle System 1Richard Dennis & William EckhardtDaily6.531%347 of 37560 of 375
Turtle System 2Richard Dennis & William EckhardtDaily4.430%351 of 37563 of 375
Clenow TrendAndreas F. ClenowDaily4.630%354 of 37563 of 375
Darvas BoxNicolas DarvasDaily5.335%336 of 37544 of 375
Keltner ChannelChester W. Keltner & Linda Bradford RaschkeDaily7.232%344 of 37544 of 375
Bollinger BreakoutJohn BollingerDaily10.033%330 of 37554 of 375
Chandelier ExitChuck LeBeauDaily8.835%312 of 37573 of 375
Wilder Volatility SystemJ. Welles Wilder Jr.Daily8.335%304 of 37562 of 375
P&F Double TopA.W. Cohen & Thomas J. DorseyDaily4.537%307 of 37587 of 375
Chande Kroll StopTushar S. Chande & Stanley KrollDaily15.427%294 of 37562 of 375
Acceleration BandsPrice HeadleyDaily8.528%362 of 37521 of 375
TTM SqueezeJohn F. CarterDaily6.136%371 of 37537 of 375
NR7 BreakoutToby CrabelDaily31.333%268 of 37552 of 375
Bollinger SqueezeJohn BollingerDaily1.831%375 of 37526 of 375
Momentum
12-Month MomentumMoskowitz, Ooi & PedersenMonth-end1.335%311 of 373123 of 373
12-1 MomentumNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan TitmanMonth-end1.345%299 of 373122 of 373
Dual MomentumGary AntonacciMonth-end1.537%324 of 373100 of 373
Stocks on the MoveAndreas F. ClenowDaily6.820%346 of 37565 of 375
52-Week HighThomas J. George & Chuan-Yang HwangMonth-end1.035%332 of 37471 of 374
Levy Relative StrengthRobert A. LevyWeekly5.528%333 of 37583 of 375
MACD Signal CrossGerald AppelDaily20.134%295 of 37556 of 375
Elder ImpulseAlexander ElderDaily35.129%253 of 37547 of 375
Know Sure ThingMartin J. PringDaily14.139%303 of 37554 of 375
Coppock CurveEdwin S. C. CoppockMonth-end0.737%295 of 367155 of 367
CCI +100Donald R. LambertDaily27.928%311 of 37544 of 375
TRIX Signal CrossJack K. HutsonDaily12.338%309 of 37559 of 375
TSI Zero LineWilliam BlauDaily8.429%309 of 37586 of 375
13612W MomentumWouter J. Keller & Jan Willem KeuningMonth-end3.734%317 of 373128 of 373
Market-State MomentumMichael J. Cooper, Roberto C. Gutierrez Jr. & Allaudeen HameedMonth-end1.242%289 of 36389 of 363
Frog in the PanZhi Da, Umit G. Gurun & Mitch WarachkaDaily1.444%315 of 37386 of 373
PMO Signal CrossCarl SwenlinDaily15.633%300 of 37565 of 375
Mean reversion
RSI 30/70J. Welles Wilder Jr.Daily1.862%353 of 37539 of 375
RSI(2) PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar AlvarezDaily13.860%368 of 37555 of 375
Double 7sLarry Connors & Cesar AlvarezDaily17.463%352 of 37587 of 375
Bollinger ReversionJohn BollingerDaily8.564%360 of 37557 of 375
Stochastic 20/80George C. LaneDaily7.263%339 of 37560 of 375
Williams %RLarry WilliamsDaily12.961%319 of 37546 of 375
DeMark 9-CountTom DeMarkDaily3.362%351 of 37565 of 375
Mayer MultipleTrace MayerDaily0.082%28 of 37548 of 375
ConnorsRSI PullbackLarry Connors & Cesar Alvarez & Matt RadtkeDaily1.159%375 of 37541 of 375
Laguerre RSIJohn F. EhlersDaily14.847%304 of 37543 of 375
StochRSI 20/80Tushar S. Chande & Stanley KrollDaily19.855%308 of 37538 of 375
IBS ReversionAlexander S. PagonidisDaily83.057%345 of 37599 of 375
Connors %bLarry Connors & Cesar AlvarezDaily4.358%365 of 37567 of 375
Fisher TransformJohn F. EhlersDaily48.637%275 of 37567 of 375
1-Month ReversalNarasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. LehmannMonth-end6.059%348 of 37579 of 375
Volume & money flow
On-Balance VolumeJoseph E. GranvilleDaily33.327%272 of 37559 of 375
Chaikin Money FlowMarc ChaikinDaily9.339%297 of 37551 of 375
Money Flow IndexGene Quong & Avrum SoudackDaily2.159%353 of 37552 of 375
Negative Volume IndexNorman Fosback & Paul DysartDaily5.034%291 of 37463 of 374
Force IndexAlexander ElderDaily31.828%264 of 37552 of 375
Buff AveragesBuff DormeierDaily16.734%299 of 37556 of 375
Chaikin OscillatorMarc ChaikinDaily26.635%233 of 37522 of 375
Volume Flow IndicatorMarkos KatsanosDaily4.932%302 of 37378 of 373
Klinger OscillatorStephen J. KlingerDaily41.835%274 of 37536 of 375
Candles & chart patterns
Engulfing SwitchSteve Nison & Thomas N. BulkowskiDaily6.250%326 of 37544 of 375
HikkakeDaniel L. CheslerDaily4.435%348 of 37567 of 375
Turtle Soup Plus OneLinda Bradford Raschke & Larry ConnorsDaily2.544%375 of 37525 of 375
Calendar
Halloween IndicatorSven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen & Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey HirschDaily2.054%333 of 375124 of 375
Best Six + MACDYale Hirsch & Jeffrey HirschDaily2.054%329 of 37598 of 375
Seasonal TimingSy HardingDaily2.054%328 of 37595 of 375
Santa Claus RallyYale Hirsch & Jeffrey HirschDaily2.047%375 of 375107 of 375
Turn of the MonthJosef Lakonishok & Seymour Smidt & Robert A. ArielDaily24.149%368 of 37562 of 375
Presidential Sweet SpotYale Hirsch & Jeffrey HirschDaily0.546%373 of 37552 of 375
Pre-HolidayRobert A. Ariel & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour SmidtDaily18.049%375 of 37592 of 375
January BarometerYale Hirsch & Jeffrey HirschMonth-end0.940%322 of 37561 of 375
Weekend EffectKenneth French & Josef Lakonishok & Seymour SmidtDaily104.750%255 of 37561 of 375
Pre-FOMC DriftDavid Lucca & Emanuel MoenchDaily15.947%375 of 37543 of 375
Lunar CycleKathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao ZhuDaily24.849%329 of 37535 of 375

Gaps the authors left

Many of these plays were published as ideas, screens or buy signals rather than complete systems. Coppock defined a buy but no sell; Minervini's template is a screen, not an exit; Granville read on-balance volume by eye. Where Be The Puck had to fill a gap to test a play mechanically, the play's page lists the choice under "How the play works", and the analyst's page links the original sources.

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