Risk and selling · Rebuilt with the Oct 13, 2026 close
Why your signal changed on October 13
The standard Buy, Hold and Sell now rest only on factors with a tested record, and they carry an exit rule. What changed, why, and how many stocks it moved.
Until October 13, the standard signal on every stock was half the plays and half analysts' upside: how far their average 12-month target sat above the price. Two things were wrong with that, and a falling week showed both.
- Half the verdict had no record. Every play on Be The Puck is graded against what happened next, and since this week every factor is too (the edges are in the guide). Analysts' targets can't be: no one keeps a record of past targets for every stock, so there's nothing to test them against. Half of the default Buy or Sell rested on a number we couldn't check.
- It leaned the wrong way in a fall. Targets move slowly. When a stock drops 15% in a week, the target usually hasn't changed yet, so the gap to it widens: if the target was 20% above the price, after a 15% fall it's 41% above, and the stock's upside points rise from 57 to 87. The worse the week, the stronger that half of the score said Buy.
- There was no exit rule. Nothing in the standard weights took points away from a stock just because it kept falling. The plays do get out, one by one, but slowly, and analysts' upside pulled the other way.
What changed
- New standard weights: the plays 40, off the high 30, trend 30. Every one has a tested record since 2011.
- A new factor, Off the high: 100 points at the stock's highest close of the last year, falling in a straight line to none at 30% below it. It doesn't rank stocks against each other, so in a broad sell-off every stock loses points. On its own it was the best-tested factor: over a year, stocks it scored 60 or more beat their market 59% of the time, against 53% for those it scored 40 or less (+6.4 pts).
- Trend (the price against its 200-day average) carries the rest of the exit side: +4.2 pts over a year.
- Analysts' upside is capped at 50 points while a stock is below its 200-day average, wherever you use it, so a broken trend can't be talked up by a stale target.
- Every signal says how much of it is tested. Under the score on each stock page: "Every factor in this score has a tested record", or how much doesn't.
The record, old and new
| Standard weights | Buys beat the market (1 year) | Avoids beat it | Edge | Tested |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before: plays 50, analysts' upside 50 | 59% | 55% | +4.4 pts | Only the plays half (50%) |
| Now: the plays 40, off the high 30, trend 30 | 59% | 53% | +6.0 pts | All of it |
Each month since 2011, every stock got its points from numbers public at the time; a Buy (60 or more) or an Avoid (40 or less) was then checked against the stock's market over the next year. The "before" row can only be graded on its plays half. Edges this size are normal and small: a better default tilts the odds a few points, it doesn't remove risk. The test uses today's list of covered stocks, which flatters every rule alike.
What it did to the signals tonight
| Signal | Old standard | New standard |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 77 | 114 |
| Hold | 246 | 99 |
| Sell | 54 | 162 |
| No score | 0 | 2 |
250 of 377 names changed signal with the Oct 13 close. Of the 138 that moved toward Sell, 75% were 20% or more below their 1-year high. Of the 110 that moved toward Buy, 88% were within 10% of their high, and 14% have fewer than three analysts, so the old standard scored them on the plays alone.
Moved down the most
- BYD Boyd Group: Buy 63 → Sell 11
- WSC WillScot: Buy 63 → Sell 12
- APP AppLovin: Hold 58 → Sell 7
- GIL Gildan Activewear: Buy 62 → Sell 11
- AP.UN Allied Properties REIT: Hold 57 → Sell 6
- ATS ATS Corporation: Buy 61 → Sell 10
- EFN Element Fleet Management: Buy 60 → Sell 9
- DML Denison Mines: Hold 59 → Sell 8
- PPTA Perpetua Resources: Buy 61 → Sell 10
- FLNC Fluence Energy: Buy 60 → Sell 10
Moved up the most
- FTNT Fortinet: Hold 42 → Buy 87
- SHOP Shopify: Hold 43 → Buy 85
- PLTR Palantir: Hold 47 → Buy 86
- CRWD CrowdStrike: Sell 40 → Buy 79
- IMO Imperial Oil: Sell 29 → Buy 68
- AAPL Apple: Hold 45 → Buy 83
- APA APA Corp: Hold 50 → Buy 88
- CNQ Canadian Natural Resources: Hold 49 → Buy 86
- RUS Russel Metals: Hold 46 → Buy 82
- SU Suncor Energy: Hold 53 → Buy 89
If you set your own weights
Nothing you chose has changed. If you were simply on the old standard, you've been moved to the new one, and the weights panel says so; the old mix is still there as Plays + analysts. Alerts reset quietly with this change, so nobody gets an email about a "flip" that was really just the new weights.
Your signal is a summary of the numbers you choose to weight, not a recommendation, and it knows nothing about your account. When to sell and One stock too many cover the two things it can't do for you.
This analysis does not constitute trading advice. Please meet with an advisor or independently review sources before making any decision. Be The Puck reports what published rules and public data say; it doesn't know your goals, taxes or timeline.